Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Seasonal boost in US base oils demand could be more muted than expected, with uncertainty about end-user consumption incentivizing buyers to maintain lower stocks.</li><li>Seasonal rise in demand typically cuts surplus supplies and often coincides with plant maintenance work, like this year.</li><li>Stronger demand and tighter supply typically give refiners more leverage to adjust prices to reflect those firmer fundamentals.</li></ul>

Seasonal boost in US base oils demand could be more muted than expected, with uncertainty about end-user consumption incentivizing buyers to maintain lower stocks.Seasonal rise in demand typically cuts surplus supplies and often coincides with plant maintenance work, like this year.Stronger demand and tighter supply typically give refiners more leverage to adjust prices to reflect those firmer fundamentals.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).
Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

<ul><li>US export base oils price premium to feedstock/heating oil prices holds in narrow range even as outright prices fall.</li><li>Lower export prices could reflect concern about availability of lingering or additional supplies if domestic demand lags expectations.</li><li>Lower export prices follow unusually steady outright prices and steadier differentials vs VGO in first two months of 2025.</li></ul>

US export base oils price premium to feedstock/heating oil prices holds in narrow range even as outright prices fall.Lower export prices could reflect concern about availability of lingering or additional supplies if domestic demand lags expectations.Lower export prices follow unusually steady outright prices and steadier differentials vs VGO in first two months of 2025.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 March

<ul><li>US base oils demand typically gets seasonal boost from around this time of the year.</li><li>Any such pick-up in demand in coming weeks could get further support following signs that sustained dip in domestic consumption is bottoming out.</li><li>Domestic demand in Q4 2024 rises from year-earlier levels for first time in two years, falls less than usual from previous quarter.</li></ul>

US base oils demand typically gets seasonal boost from around this time of the year.Any such pick-up in demand in coming weeks could get further support following signs that sustained dip in domestic consumption is bottoming out.Domestic demand in Q4 2024 rises from year-earlier levels for first time in two years, falls less than usual from previous quarter.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 March

<ul><li>Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025.</li><li>Europe Group II prices flip to premium to Europe Group III 4cSt (low) prices in Feb 2025 for first time since mid-2021.</li><li>Relative price-strength of Group II base oils points to firm supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group III base oils.</li></ul>

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025.Europe Group II prices flip to premium to Europe Group III 4cSt (low) prices in Feb 2025 for first time since mid-2021.Relative price-strength of Group II base oils points to firm supply-demand fundamentals vs Group I and Group III base oils.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

Germany

FUCHS SE manufactures lubricants and related specialty products. The Company refines and produces industrial and automotive lubricants, hydraulic oils, greases, and polishing products, as well as biodegradable oils. FUCHS markets its products worldwide.

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FUCHS (FPE GR)

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

Seasonal boost in US base oils demand could be more muted than expected, with uncertainty about end-user consumption incentivizing buyers to...

Base Oil News

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 March

US export base oils price premium to feedstock/heating oil prices holds in narrow range even as outright prices fall. Lower export prices could...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 March

US base oils demand typically gets seasonal boost from around this time of the year. Any such pick-up in demand in coming weeks could get further...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025. Europe Group II prices flip to premium to...

Base Oil News

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

Seasonal boost in US base oils demand could be more muted than expected, with uncertainty about end-user consumption incentivizing buyers to...

Base Oil News

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

​European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 March

US export base oils price premium to feedstock/heating oil prices holds in narrow range even as outright prices fall. Lower export prices could...

Base Oil News

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 March

US base oils demand typically gets seasonal boost from around this time of the year. Any such pick-up in demand in coming weeks could get further...

Base Oil News

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 10 March

Europe’s Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs Group I prices in first two months of 2025. Europe Group II prices flip to premium to...

Base Oil News

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...