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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>GDP /: China Q3 GDP beats market estimates amid pickup in consumption</li><li>Belt and Road Initiative /: Xi vows to further open up China at Belt and Road Forum</li><li>Buybacks /: State-owned companies buy back shares to boost investor confidence</li></ul>

GDP /: China Q3 GDP beats market estimates amid pickup in consumptionBelt and Road Initiative /: Xi vows to further open up China at Belt and Road ForumBuybacks /: State-owned companies buy back shares to boost investor confidence

CX Daily: China Q3 GDP Beats Market Estimates Amid Pickup in Consumption

<ul><li>SPACs / In Depth: SPACs appear to lose shine in Singapore and Hong Kong</li><li>Taiwan / Chinese envoy warns U.S. against further escalating tensions over Taiwan</li><li>Flood / Northwest China flash floods leave 16 dead, 36 missing</li></ul>

SPACs / In Depth: SPACs appear to lose shine in Singapore and Hong KongTaiwan / Chinese envoy warns U.S. against further escalating tensions over TaiwanFlood / Northwest China flash floods leave 16 dead, 36 missing

CX Daily: SPACs Appear to Lose Shine in Singapore and Hong Kong

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The China Real Estate Association (CREA) reportedly summoned 10 key developers to a discussion meeting last Friday, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26076:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke (000002 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-land-investment-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:419:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Land &amp; Investment (688 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gemdale-corp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14908:1" rel="noopener">Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongliang-holdings-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28009:1" rel="noopener">Zhongliang Holdings (2772 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seazen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24242:1" rel="noopener">Seazen Holdings Co., Ltd. (601155 CH)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greentown-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8954:1" rel="noopener">Greentown China (3900 HK)</a> , and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cifi-holdings-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18387:1" rel="noopener">CIFI Holdings (884 HK)</a> , who were required to send senior executives at vice president or above levels.

The China Real Estate Association (CREA) reportedly summoned 10 key developers to a discussion meeting last Friday, including China Vanke (000002 CH) , Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK) , China Overseas Land &amp; Investment (688 HK) , Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH) , Longfor Properties (960 HK)Zhongliang Holdings (2772 HK) , Seazen Holdings Co., Ltd. (601155 CH) , Greentown China (3900 HK) , and CIFI Holdings (884 HK) , who were required to send senior executives at vice president or above levels.

China Real Estate Association Summoned Key Developers as PBOC Hints Policy Finetuning

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).
The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.
The Inventory Drawdown. Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.
The Insatiable Demand. The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.
The Aggressive Developers. The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 746px;">Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 746px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/215/144/original/image_45072834061624549646155.png?1624549646" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="215144"></figure>
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Related Insights
<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-financials-silver-linings-playbook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53013" rel="noopener">China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/glut-and-famine-we-might-see-snow-in-china-this-summer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52840" rel="noopener">Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-operation-twist-the-deposit-version" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53435" rel="noopener">China Macro: Operation Twist | The Deposit Version</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-consumers-remain-on-the-sidelines-as-their-home-equity-grows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53210" rel="noopener">China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-ppi-peaks-while-cpi-eases-tightening-fears" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52778" rel="noopener">China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-macro-exports-disappoint-but-it-s-still-early-in-the-game" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52728" rel="noopener">China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game</a> </li>
</ul>

For all the roller coaster rides the sector has taken investors on over the years, the Chinese property developers have been unsettlingly consistent in one regard. The CNY1tn fixed asset investment (FAI) homebuilders coughed up in May continued a two-decades long secular trend that may make or break China's still fragile recovery (Exhibit 1).
The Debt-Fueled Supercycle. The sector has seen its share of excesses and corrections, exemplified by the post-GFC FAI expansion and subsequent retrenchment. Covid might have driven up construction costs, but the enthusiasm of would-be homeowners has shown no signs of abating. Just as the developers are working overtime to deleverage their balance sheets, household debt is piling up and may approach alarming levels over the next five years if mortgage growth doesn't decelerate quickly enough.
The Inventory Drawdown. Behind the headline FAI number is a more nuanced picture of inventory reductions and landbank replenishment. Housing starts slowed in May and dipped below project completions on a 12-month rolling basis. This affords cash-strapped property firms an opportunity to rebuild their cashflows, while deploying cash to projects in hand.
The Insatiable Demand. The 0.5% m/m or 5% y/y rise in home prices last month may appear benign in other settings. In the context of China's already exorbitant base, recent data points are a cause for concern. Among the largest cities across the country, those in the Greater Bay Area stand out as outliers, with valuations skyrocketing in spite of the latest round of lockdowns.
The Aggressive Developers. The increasingly bullish undertones of sell-side notes that have landed on our desks are centered around the inventory drawdown / cashflow rebuild story of the perceived higher-quality names in the space. We are not buyers of that story just yet and our work suggests that many developers have been acquiring land at a more aggressive rate than they had planned at the beginning of the year. Regulators are already keeping a close eye on recent transactions and we think we should too.



Exhibit 1: Monthly Housing FAI | 3M Moving Avg (CNY bn)




Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Our analysis




Related Insights


China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook 

Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 

China Macro: Operation Twist | The Deposit Version 

China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 

China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 

China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 


China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We do understand the cultural need for upward bias in Analyst Recommendations, but 191 out of 395 companies in China only have BUY recommendations. That means that 48% of companies with 4 or more Analysts only have BUY recommendations. We define "BUY" as any positive analyst rating. Now we looked back in time to see if this was an anomaly and it really is not. Earlier this year 44% of companies only had BUY recommendations and back in 2015 55% of companies only had BUY recommendations in China…

We do understand the cultural need for upward bias in Analyst Recommendations, but 191 out of 395 companies in China only have BUY recommendations. That means that 48% of companies with 4 or more Analysts only have BUY recommendations. We define "BUY" as any positive analyst rating. Now we looked back in time to see if this was an anomaly and it really is not. Earlier this year 44% of companies only had BUY recommendations and back in 2015 55% of companies only had BUY recommendations in China…

Hated Names in China and It Is Difficult to Be Hated in China....

China

Gemdale Corporation develops residential buildings and operates in property rental and management. The Company also invests in commercial trading businesses.

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Gemdale Corp A (600383 CH)

CX Daily: China Q3 GDP Beats Market Estimates Amid Pickup in Consumption

GDP /: China Q3 GDP beats market estimates amid pickup in consumption Belt and Road Initiative /: Xi vows to further open up China at Belt and...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: SPACs Appear to Lose Shine in Singapore and Hong Kong

In Depth: SPACs appear to lose shine in Singapore and Hong Kong. Chinese envoy warns U.S. against further escalating tensions over Taiwan

Caixin Global

China Real Estate Association Summoned Key Developers as PBOC Hints Policy Finetuning

We see a short-term opportunity to buy high-quality, low leveraged developers in advance of further calibrated policy support.

Li Tang

China Properties: Like Clockwork, Real Estate Investments Haven't Skipped a Beat

Housing FAI in May continued a secular trend that may make or break China's recovery. Inventory drawdowns may afford developers some breathing...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Hated Names in China and It Is Difficult to Be Hated in China....

We do understand the cultural need for upward bias in Analyst Recommendations, but 191 out of 395 companies in China only have BUY recommendations....

Custom Products Group

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