Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.</li>
<li>Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.</li>
<li>Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. </li>
</ul>


Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market. 


Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Low-Cost producer of copper and zinc with two of the biggest  ten mines in the world.</li>
<li>Recent mine acquisition and increased production at existing mines will grow earnings.</li>
<li>The supply and demand imbalance in copper will lead to higher prices.</li>
</ul>


Low-Cost producer of copper and zinc with two of the biggest  ten mines in the world.
Recent mine acquisition and increased production at existing mines will grow earnings.
The supply and demand imbalance in copper will lead to higher prices.


Mmg Limited 1208.HK - It's Got It All - Copper, EV's, and AI!

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>After selling its coking coal business to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> has pivoted to copper as its primary growth driver. </li>
<li>The 7.3 bn CAD cash (20% of Mkt cap) received from the sale of the coal business stake is being used for buybacks, debt repayment, and growth opportunities.  </li>
<li>The stock is cheap on an EV-EBITDA basis at 7.5x, but we are not too fond of the business's low ROCE. </li>
</ul>


After selling its coking coal business to Glencore Plc (GLEN LN), Teck Resources (TECK US) has pivoted to copper as its primary growth driver. 
The 7.3 bn CAD cash (20% of Mkt cap) received from the sale of the coal business stake is being used for buybacks, debt repayment, and growth opportunities.  
The stock is cheap on an EV-EBITDA basis at 7.5x, but we are not too fond of the business's low ROCE. 


Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town

<ul>
<li>While there may be still be some overhang once the rights shares start trading, this is a good entry point</li>
<li>Applications for 6.4 Billion excess rights shares received from 11 applications</li>
<li>Rights shares will start trading on Tuesday 16th of July</li>
</ul>


While there may be still be some overhang once the rights shares start trading, this is a good entry point
Applications for 6.4 Billion excess rights shares received from 11 applications
Rights shares will start trading on Tuesday 16th of July


MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue - 98.18% Taken Up

<ul>
<li>Top miners like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> are signaling their long-term bullish copper intent through their recent corporate actions. </li>
<li>Copper may experience short periods of oversupply, but its long-term outlook makes it one of the best commodities we cover in terms of return potential. </li>
<li>Our best plays in the copper space are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-copper-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16279:1" rel="noopener">Southern Copper (SCCO US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/teck-resources-ltd-36dbdad5-1430-4d7a-8578-31bc50086f72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33343:1" rel="noopener">Teck Resources (TECK US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freeport-mcmoran-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12491:1" rel="noopener">Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Top miners like BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) and Teck Resources (TECK US) are signaling their long-term bullish copper intent through their recent corporate actions. 
Copper may experience short periods of oversupply, but its long-term outlook makes it one of the best commodities we cover in terms of return potential. 
Our best plays in the copper space are Southern Copper (SCCO US), Teck Resources (TECK US) and Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)



Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

Switzerland

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

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Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Mmg Limited 1208.HK - It's Got It All - Copper, EV's, and AI!

Copper at 5-yr highs. Drivers: a) Tariff fear (25% on aluminium/steel) causing copper to be diverted to the US b) The inventory of copper in China...

Rikki Malik

Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town

Building on our coverage in copper equities, we initiate on Teck Resources (TECK US). We explore its future growth prospects after selling its coal...

Sameer Taneja

MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue - 98.18% Taken Up

Good entry point for investors as excess rights shares receive strong demand, trading to begin on July 16th, and copper has had its correction

Rikki Malik

Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

We initiate with a primer on the copper sector. We elaborate on our fundamental rationale for being bullish on the metal and discuss different ways...

Sameer Taneja

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

​2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Rahul Jain

Mmg Limited 1208.HK - It's Got It All - Copper, EV's, and AI!

Copper at 5-yr highs. Drivers: a) Tariff fear (25% on aluminium/steel) causing copper to be diverted to the US b) The inventory of copper in China...

Rikki Malik

Teck Resources (TECK US): The New Purish Copper Play In Town

Building on our coverage in copper equities, we initiate on Teck Resources (TECK US). We explore its future growth prospects after selling its coal...

Sameer Taneja

MMG Limited (1208.HK) Rights Issue - 98.18% Taken Up

​Good entry point for investors as excess rights shares receive strong demand, trading to begin on July 16th, and copper has had its correction

Rikki Malik

Copper Primer: What We Like About Copper And What to Play

We initiate with a primer on the copper sector. We elaborate on our fundamental rationale for being bullish on the metal and discuss different ways...

Sameer Taneja

2025 zinc market cautious as producers cut output due to tight supply and low benchmark TCs, Hindustan Zinc stands out with strong growth and...

Good entry point for investors as excess rights shares receive strong demand, trading to begin on July 16th, and copper has had its correction