Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months after.</li><li>Historically, industrial metals tend to lag energy by several months.</li><li>By contrast, prices of precious metals, especially gold, generally rise six months after the first rate cut then hit a temporary plateau —something we saw even during the extremes of the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. </li></ul>

In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months after.Historically, industrial metals tend to lag energy by several months.By contrast, prices of precious metals, especially gold, generally rise six months after the first rate cut then hit a temporary plateau —something we saw even during the extremes of the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. 

How Commodities Perform Around First Rate Cut

Crude Palm Oil Active Contract / Commodities

<ul><li>Conditions in the Energy Industry Continue To Worsen The quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey highlighted that business uncertainty is worsening again.</li><li>It seems like the past two quarterly reports were only outliers - the trend remains worsening business conditions for gas and oil companies.</li><li>The conflict in the Red Sea started to impact shipping rates. But as we wrote over the past couple of weeks, it is not substantially higher</li></ul>

Conditions in the Energy Industry Continue To Worsen The quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey highlighted that business uncertainty is worsening again.It seems like the past two quarterly reports were only outliers - the trend remains worsening business conditions for gas and oil companies.The conflict in the Red Sea started to impact shipping rates. But as we wrote over the past couple of weeks, it is not substantially higher

Another Textbook Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact Trade Incoming?

Soybean Oil Active Contract / Commodities

<ul><li>We all know about China’s importance in global trade as it is the single most important importer of many key commodities and raw materials.</li><li>This great chart by S&amp;P Global highlights this once again.</li><li>Meanwhile, this importance could at least top out over the next couple of years - as the demographic problem really hits the country.</li></ul>

We all know about China’s importance in global trade as it is the single most important importer of many key commodities and raw materials.This great chart by S&amp;P Global highlights this once again.Meanwhile, this importance could at least top out over the next couple of years - as the demographic problem really hits the country.

China’s Role as Commodity Importer & The Problem that Emerges for the Soybean Complex

<ul><li>Happy new year guys - another chapter has arrived and it’s time to make the best out of it.</li><li>First of all, let’s look at the past, the now and the costly mistakes we made during the past year.</li><li>Soft commodities dominated the commodity front during 2023.</li></ul>

Happy new year guys - another chapter has arrived and it’s time to make the best out of it.First of all, let’s look at the past, the now and the costly mistakes we made during the past year.Soft commodities dominated the commodity front during 2023.

Commodities Going Into 2024 & Our Biggest Mistakes During 2023

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<div data-component-type="container"><ul><li>In 2023 gold prices have traded in a USD 1,800-2,000 per ounce range for most of the time. In periods of a stronger US dollar and higher US real yields gold prices moved towards the USD 1,800 level. Recently, gold prices have rallied to USD 2,000 again.</li><li>The recovery in gold prices has happened against the background of lower US real yields, the possible end of the tightening  cycles by the Fed and ECB and the situation in the Middle East (see above). Gold prices face difficulty to move and stay above USD 2,000 and/or to decline below USD 1,800.</li></ul></div><div data-component-type="container"><ul><li>For the coming months we don’t expect a change in these dynamics. However the start of the easing cycle and the large amount of rate cuts we expect for the Fed and the ECB in 2024 should be supportive for gold prices, especially as we expect more aggressive rate cuts by both central banks than the market.</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In 2023 gold prices have traded in a USD 1,800-2,000 per ounce range for most of the time. In periods of a stronger US dollar and higher US real yields gold prices moved towards the USD 1,800 level. Recently, gold prices have rallied to USD 2,000 again.The recovery in gold prices has happened against the background of lower US real yields, the possible end of the tightening  cycles by the Fed and ECB and the situation in the Middle East (see above). Gold prices face difficulty to move and stay above USD 2,000 and/or to decline below USD 1,800.For the coming months we don’t expect a change in these dynamics. However the start of the easing cycle and the large amount of rate cuts we expect for the Fed and the ECB in 2024 should be supportive for gold prices, especially as we expect more aggressive rate cuts by both central banks than the market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

How Commodities Perform Around First Rate Cut

In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months...

The Commodity Report

Another Textbook Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact Trade Incoming?

Conditions in the Energy Industry Continue To Worsen The quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey highlighted that business uncertainty is worsening again.

The Commodity Report

China’s Role as Commodity Importer & The Problem that Emerges for the Soybean Complex

We all know about China’s importance in global trade as it is the single most important importer of many key commodities and raw materials.

The Commodity Report

Commodities Going Into 2024 & Our Biggest Mistakes During 2023

Happy new year guys - another chapter has arrived and it’s time to make the best out of it. First of all, let’s look at the past, the now and the...

The Commodity Report

Gold price outlook

Outlook 2024 Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below...

ABN AMRO

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