Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.</li>
<li>Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.
Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.


Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Mexican Consumer Staples stocks are gaining traction with active EM investors.  Last month saw the net overweight reach a new high of +0.43% with a record 52.6% of funds overweight the iShares MSCI EM ETF.Despite this, absolute positioning in Mexican Consumer Staples is relatively low versus history.  This analysis looks at the potential for Mexican Consumer staples to run further, attracting more investors and becoming a greater allocation within active EM portfolios.

Mexican Consumer Staples stocks are gaining traction with active EM investors.  Last month saw the net overweight reach a new high of +0.43% with a record 52.6% of funds overweight the iShares MSCI EM ETF.Despite this, absolute positioning in Mexican Consumer Staples is relatively low versus history.  This analysis looks at the potential for Mexican Consumer staples to run further, attracting more investors and becoming a greater allocation within active EM portfolios.

Mexico Consumer Staples:  Overweight, Underowned, Strong Momentum

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Global indexes remain overwhelmingly positive which is supported by the fact that there is a dearth of breakdowns. Overall our big picture view remains unchanged; overhead longer-term resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. In today's report we highlight attractive charts within defensives (Consumer Staples &amp; Utilities), cyclicals (Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financial, &amp; Materials), and in-between Sectors (Communications, Services, &amp; Health Care)

Global indexes remain overwhelmingly positive which is supported by the fact that there is a dearth of breakdowns. Overall our big picture view remains unchanged; overhead longer-term resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. In today's report we highlight attractive charts within defensives (Consumer Staples &amp; Utilities), cyclicals (Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financial, &amp; Materials), and in-between Sectors (Communications, Services, &amp; Health Care)

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Technology

Mexico

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV produces and sells bakery products.  The Company produces breads, cookies, pies, pastries, sweet rolls, tortillas, tostadas, and snacks. The Company also makes appetizers, sweets, chocolates, jams, and other confections.  Grupo Bimbo markets its products throughout the Americas and Europe.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV (BIMBOA MM)

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on $EEM. Specifically, the EEM has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If EEM has...

Vermilion Research

Mexico Consumer Staples: Overweight, Underowned, Strong Momentum

Mexican Consumer Staples stocks are gaining traction with active EM investors. Last month saw the net overweight reach a new high of +0.43% with a...

Steven Holden

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Technology

Global indexes remain overwhelmingly positive which is supported by the fact that there is a dearth of breakdowns. Overall our big picture view...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)