Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.</div>As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cwe.12141/epdf" target="_blank">recent paper</a>(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a recent paper(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

Hong Kong & China Property Research Analyst with 8 years experience

Karen Kwan

Equity Bottom-Up

Guangzhou R&F Properties / Equity Bottom-Up

China announced RRR cut yesterday which should benefit China developers. Highly geared GZ R&amp;F's valuation looks very depressed as people worry about around CNY18b of debt due in 2015. Medium-term-note documents have been submitted for approval.&nbsp;

China announced RRR cut yesterday which should benefit China developers. Highly geared GZ R&amp;F's valuation looks very depressed as people worry about around CNY18b of debt due in 2015. Medium-term-note documents have been submitted for approval.&nbsp;

RRR cut to benefit developers. long high beta name and mainstream large-caps

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on offshore bonds) and on Jan 12 got a waiver on a HK$400 million loan from HSBC.&nbsp; The notes dropped 40 percent last month as some of Kaisa’s Shenzhen projects were blocked and executives including founder Kwok Ying Shing quit. They continued to fall in January, reaching 29.9 cents on the dollar on Jan. 7. Its $800 million of 8.875 percent 2018 bonds also plunged.

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on offshore bonds) and on Jan 12 got a waiver on a HK$400 million loan from HSBC.&nbsp; The notes dropped 40 percent last month as some of Kaisa’s Shenzhen projects were blocked and executives including founder Kwok Ying Shing quit. They continued to fall in January, reaching 29.9 cents on the dollar on Jan. 7. Its $800 million of 8.875 percent 2018 bonds also plunged.

China Property / Debt - when Kaisa broke our Trust

China

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co., Ltd. operates real estate businesses. The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, property management, and other services. Guangzhou R&F Properties also operates hotel management.

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Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777 HK)

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy. Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the...

Mark Artherton

RRR cut to benefit developers. long high beta name and mainstream large-caps

China announced RRR cut yesterday which should benefit China developers. Highly geared GZ R&F's valuation looks very depressed as people worry...

Karen Kwan

China Property / Debt - when Kaisa broke our Trust

Kaisa failed to make an interest payment due Jan 8 on $500 million of 10.25% dollar bonds (the first Chinese property company to default on...

David Millhouse

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)