China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

China became a net capital exporter for the first time in 2014 as outward direct investment (ODI) overtook foreign direct investment (FDI). Financial liberalization, innovation and the pursuit of stability have been, for the PBOC, driving forces towards sector reforms and RMB internationalization.With the progressive loosening of capital controls by the PBOC, capital accounts are becoming increasingly open. As the internationalisation of the RMB continues, capital inflows and outflows are…

China became a net capital exporter for the first time in 2014 as outward direct investment (ODI) overtook foreign direct investment (FDI). Financial liberalization, innovation and the pursuit of stability have been, for the PBOC, driving forces towards sector reforms and RMB internationalization.With the progressive loosening of capital controls by the PBOC, capital accounts are becoming increasingly open. As the internationalisation of the RMB continues, capital inflows and outflows are…

Director - Research, Consulting and Advisory, BondAdviser

Nicholas Yaxley

Director - Research, Consulting and Advisory

Australian bonds & fixed income research

BondAdviser

BondAdviser is the central reference point for intelligent information on Australian fixed income markets. We help you make informed decisions by providing unbiased research, transparent pricing data, analytics, portfolio tools and education.

BondAdviser has the broadest coverage of retail-accessible ASX-listed and over-the-counter Australian bonds and fixed income securities. We make it easy for you to review and compare investments before you place an order with your broker or dealer.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Bank hybrids have been issued in the Australian financial landscape for over 20 years in various forms. While drivers of performance have varied over this period, they are typically cyclical and have a recurring impact on security trading margins (albeit at different magnitudes). The focus of the article will be on what is technically known as an Additional Tier 1 capital security (hybrids), and our expectations for market drivers over the next twelve months and how hybrids will be impacted by supply &amp; demand, valuations, diverging monetary, and regulation.Hybrid investors need to be aware of the different drivers of market volatility (fundamental or technical) and appreciate how they may (or may not) influence margin movements.

Bank hybrids have been issued in the Australian financial landscape for over 20 years in various forms. While drivers of performance have varied over this period, they are typically cyclical and have a recurring impact on security trading margins (albeit at different magnitudes). The focus of the article will be on what is technically known as an Additional Tier 1 capital security (hybrids), and our expectations for market drivers over the next twelve months and how hybrids will be impacted by supply &amp; demand, valuations, diverging monetary, and regulation.Hybrid investors need to be aware of the different drivers of market volatility (fundamental or technical) and appreciate how they may (or may not) influence margin movements.

Liquidity and Technical Drivers of Hybrids

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

For too long China's state banks have relied on a guaranteed profit from state-sanctioned lending rates. Electronic payment systems will provide both a challenge and an opportunity to these privileged behemoths.

For too long China's state banks have relied on a guaranteed profit from state-sanctioned lending rates. Electronic payment systems will provide both a challenge and an opportunity to these privileged behemoths.

Encouraging Non-Interest Income in China's Banks

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

There is plenty of corporate risk out there. We have seen this across several large economies in the way of meaningful corporate stress. In South Korea, the Hanjin Shipping bankruptcy has negative implications not only for Korean banks, but certainly other banks lending into this space. This will not be an isolated shipping stress; there will be more.  In China, Bohai Steel is in trouble, which reportedly has US$28.9 billion in overdue loans. The steel sector has hit several banks in Thailand…

There is plenty of corporate risk out there. We have seen this across several large economies in the way of meaningful corporate stress. In South Korea, the Hanjin Shipping bankruptcy has negative implications not only for Korean banks, but certainly other banks lending into this space. This will not be an isolated shipping stress; there will be more.  In China, Bohai Steel is in trouble, which reportedly has US$28.9 billion in overdue loans. The steel sector has hit several banks in Thailand…

Consumer Banks in Asia May Fare Better at a Time when Large Corporate Stresses Are Evident

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report, Quiddity Advisors

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ul>
<li>This week, the Fed has behaved consistently with our macro roadmap by not raising rates yet but running the US economy "hot". Two implications: 1. Bullish for Emerging Markets. Our top pick is China; 2. JPY should remain flat to strong near term holding back an earnings recovery. We are constructive but near term: "Neutral" in DM and "Underweight" in APAC.</li>
<li>Our BOJ call (see below) was correct. Three implications: 1. Targeting of the yield curve is positive for financials. We like…</li>
</ul>

Executive Summary
This week, the Fed has behaved consistently with our macro roadmap by not raising rates yet but running the US economy "hot". Two implications: 1. Bullish for Emerging Markets. Our top pick is China; 2. JPY should remain flat to strong near term holding back an earnings recovery. We are constructive but near term: "Neutral" in DM and "Underweight" in APAC.
Our BOJ call (see below) was correct. Three implications: 1. Targeting of the yield curve is positive for financials. We like…


ANIMAL SPIRITS™ UPDATE: Japan Equity Market Outlook - BOJ, Fed & The Value Trap

China

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

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Guotai Junan Securities (601211 CH)

RMB FX Flow Report

China became a net capital exporter for the first time in 2014 as outward direct investment (ODI) overtook foreign direct investment (FDI)....

Christopher Balding

Liquidity and Technical Drivers of Hybrids

Bank hybrids have been issued in the Australian financial landscape for over 20 years in various forms. While drivers of performance have varied...

BondAdviser

Encouraging Non-Interest Income in China's Banks

For too long China's state banks have relied on a guaranteed profit from state-sanctioned lending rates. Electronic payment systems will provide...

Bixmoor

Consumer Banks in Asia May Fare Better at a Time when Large Corporate Stresses Are Evident

There is plenty of corporate risk out there. We have seen this across several large economies in the way of meaningful corporate stress. In South...

Daniel Tabbush

ANIMAL SPIRITS™ UPDATE: Japan Equity Market Outlook - BOJ, Fed & The Value Trap

Executive Summary This week, the Fed has behaved consistently with our macro roadmap by not raising rates yet but running the US economy "hot". Two...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

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52-week Range

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