China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…

Chinese Credit Growth Is Shifting Where It Grows Not How Much It Grows

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Based on new data released by NBS today: in August, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 25.6% YTD YoY, only slightly slower pace compared to 26.7% in July, and 29% in June. On a single-month, year-on-year basis the growth picked up to 19.1% from 16.7% in July.National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) declined by 8.5% on YTD YoY basis, more negative than the 7.8% decline in July.In absolute terms…

Based on new data released by NBS today: in August, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 25.6% YTD YoY, only slightly slower pace compared to 26.7% in July, and 29% in June. On a single-month, year-on-year basis the growth picked up to 19.1% from 16.7% in July.National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) declined by 8.5% on YTD YoY basis, more negative than the 7.8% decline in July.In absolute terms…

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Slightly Slower at 25.6% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Aug), Land Sales Still Low

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

In August, average house price increased 13.8% y/y, as measured by the SouFun-CREIS 100 Cities Index, compared to 12.4% the previous month. It is the 13th consecutive month of y/y price growth. On m/m basis, the index in August increased 2.2%, the fastest m/m pace in history, compared to 1.6% in July. It is the 17th straight month of sequential price growth.Simple average price for 100 cities (vs 100 Cities Index) shows a more muted growth rate but with a similar pattern.All Tier 1 cities showed…

In August, average house price increased 13.8% y/y, as measured by the SouFun-CREIS 100 Cities Index, compared to 12.4% the previous month. It is the 13th consecutive month of y/y price growth. On m/m basis, the index in August increased 2.2%, the fastest m/m pace in history, compared to 1.6% in July. It is the 17th straight month of sequential price growth.Simple average price for 100 cities (vs 100 Cities Index) shows a more muted growth rate but with a similar pattern.All Tier 1 cities showed…

China House Prices Keep Rising: 13.8% Y/Y In August Vs 12.4% in July (SouFun 100 Cities Index)

Over the past 10 years, China property prices, as measured by indices of average prices of new homes sales, have followed in a fairly consistent way the policy cycles of tightening and easing, usually with some lag. Over the past months, there have been more signs of policy tightening, which would typically lead to a slowdown in sales.In August, new home purchase restrictions were announced in Suzhou and Xiamen while more strict credit restrictions were implemented in Wuhan, Nanjing, and Hefei…

Over the past 10 years, China property prices, as measured by indices of average prices of new homes sales, have followed in a fairly consistent way the policy cycles of tightening and easing, usually with some lag. Over the past months, there have been more signs of policy tightening, which would typically lead to a slowdown in sales.In August, new home purchase restrictions were announced in Suzhou and Xiamen while more strict credit restrictions were implemented in Wuhan, Nanjing, and Hefei…

China Property - Further Signs Of Gradual Policy Tightening

China

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

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Guotai Junan Securities (601211 CH)

Chinese Credit Growth Is Shifting Where It Grows Not How Much It Grows

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on...

Christopher Balding

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Slightly Slower at 25.6% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Aug), Land Sales Still Low

Based on new data released by NBS today: in August, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 25.6%...

Robert Ciemniak

China Asset Risk Clear in Margin Data

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of...

Daniel Tabbush

China House Prices Keep Rising: 13.8% Y/Y In August Vs 12.4% in July (SouFun 100 Cities Index)

In August, average house price increased 13.8% y/y, as measured by the SouFun-CREIS 100 Cities Index, compared to 12.4% the previous month. It is...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Further Signs Of Gradual Policy Tightening

Over the past 10 years, China property prices, as measured by indices of average prices of new homes sales, have followed in a fairly consistent...

Robert Ciemniak

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Market Cap (USDm)

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