Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility is currently cheap, trading in its 14th percentile, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> approaches its twelve-months high.</li>
<li>
Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: A pronounced skew smile and a relatively flat term structure make spreads and calendar / diagonal spreads attractive strategies.</li>
<li>
Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity can be found in the monthly May expiry and the Quarterly expiries. The historically low implied volatility facilitates longer term positions.</li>
</ul>



Implied Volatility Trends: One-month implied volatility is currently cheap, trading in its 14th percentile, while Tencent (700 HK) approaches its twelve-months high.

Skew and Term Structure Dynamics: A pronounced skew smile and a relatively flat term structure make spreads and calendar / diagonal spreads attractive strategies.

Open Interest Distribution: Liquidity can be found in the monthly May expiry and the Quarterly expiries. The historically low implied volatility facilitates longer term positions.


Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>Calendar and Diagonal Spreads make up a quarter of all strategies. Several examples are presented incorporating upfront cost, upfront credit, or zero-cost combinations. </li>
<li>While there is a bias towards bullish strategies, 26% of all strategies express a market-neutral view in the form of Straddles, Strangles, Butterflies or Condors.</li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, Tencent (700 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Calendar and Diagonal Spreads make up a quarter of all strategies. Several examples are presented incorporating upfront cost, upfront credit, or zero-cost combinations. 
While there is a bias towards bullish strategies, 26% of all strategies express a market-neutral view in the form of Straddles, Strangles, Butterflies or Condors.


Tencent (700 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Trades from HKEX Options Trading

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> in June to take us up to 85 index constituents.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.3bn (US$1.44bn) with over 1x ADV to trade in the adds and in one stock with a FAF increase.</li>
<li>There could be a short-term drop in the AH premium for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group</a> while this inclusion ensures <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman</a> is a member of all major indices where eligible.</li>
</ul>



Midea Group (300 HK) and ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in June to take us up to 85 index constituents.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.9% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$11.3bn (US$1.44bn) with over 1x ADV to trade in the adds and in one stock with a FAF increase.
There could be a short-term drop in the AH premium for Midea Group while this inclusion ensures ZTO Express Cayman is a member of all major indices where eligible.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) & ZTO Express (2057 HK) Added; Inching Towards a 100

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June following the launch of God's Eye, its Advanced Driver-Assistance System (ADAS).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>'s inclusion results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-literature-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24388:1" rel="noopener">China Literature (772 HK)</a> being deleted from the index. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-literature-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24388:1" rel="noopener">China Literature</a> stock should drop over the near-term.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 13% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$46.5bn (US$5.95bn). There are 16 stocks that have at least 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
</ul>


As expected, BYD (1211 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June following the launch of God's Eye, its Advanced Driver-Assistance System (ADAS).

BYD (1211 HK)'s inclusion results in China Literature (772 HK) being deleted from the index. China Literature stock should drop over the near-term.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 13% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$46.5bn (US$5.95bn). There are 16 stocks that have at least 1x ADV to trade from passives.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

<ul>
<li>We had <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International (9992 HK)</a> at the cusp of index inclusion. An increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china-c-2a9047eb-af5e-4621-85c4-3cac677a1d13" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>'s FAF led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart</a> missing out.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.18% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$3.8bn (US$489m).</li>
<li>There are large inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> due to a FAF methodology change for Secondary Listings.</li>
</ul>


We had Pop Mart International (9992 HK) at the cusp of index inclusion. An increase in Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)'s FAF led to Pop Mart missing out.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.18% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$3.8bn (US$489m).
There are large inflows for NetEase (9999 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK) and Baidu (9888 HK) due to a FAF methodology change for Secondary Listings.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Why Did Pop Mart (9992 HK) Miss?

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure

Tencent is approaching its 12-month high and implied volatility is cheap. The skew smile and flattish term structure make spreads attractive.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Trades from HKEX Options Trading

Tencent's multi-leg option strategies feature a mix of bullish, bearish and market-neutral approaches, including Calendar and Diagonal Spreads....

Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) & ZTO Express (2057 HK) Added; Inching Towards a 100

Midea and ZTO Express will be added to the HSI after market close on 6 June. Estimated turnover is 2.9% and the estimated trade is HK$11.3bn. Watch...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

In a change that was not widely forecast, BYD will replace China Literature in the index. That change plus large FAF changes set off a huge trade....

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Why Did Pop Mart (9992 HK) Miss?

Pop Mart misses inclusion due to a float increase for a different stock. Estimated turnover is 3.18% and trade is HK$3.8bn. NetEase, Trip.com,...

Brian Freitas

Tencent (700 HK): Strategies to Navigate Low Volatility and A Flat Term Structure

Tencent is approaching its 12-month high and implied volatility is cheap. The skew smile and flattish term structure make spreads attractive.

Gaudenz Schneider

Tencent (700 HK): Strategic Insights and Top Trades from HKEX Options Trading

​Tencent's multi-leg option strategies feature a mix of bullish, bearish and market-neutral approaches, including Calendar and Diagonal Spreads....

Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) & ZTO Express (2057 HK) Added; Inching Towards a 100

Midea and ZTO Express will be added to the HSI after market close on 6 June. Estimated turnover is 2.9% and the estimated trade is HK$11.3bn. Watch...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

In a change that was not widely forecast, BYD will replace China Literature in the index. That change plus large FAF changes set off a huge trade....

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Why Did Pop Mart (9992 HK) Miss?

Pop Mart misses inclusion due to a float increase for a different stock. Estimated turnover is 3.18% and trade is HK$3.8bn. NetEase, Trip.com,...

Brian Freitas

Tencent's multi-leg option strategies feature a mix of bullish, bearish and market-neutral approaches, including Calendar and Diagonal Spreads....