Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Abrupt change in course for HSI which bottomed on Monday and moved higher in a straight line the rest of the week. Price action was aided by stabilization in Tencent.</li>
<li>Implied vols were softer on the week and have a fairly large spread to historic vols. Caution warranted for long vol positions as this can persist with holidays dead ahead.  </li>
<li>Call volumes have rebounded to normal levels with the strong price action.</li>
</ul>


Abrupt change in course for HSI which bottomed on Monday and moved higher in a straight line the rest of the week. Price action was aided by stabilization in Tencent.
Implied vols were softer on the week and have a fairly large spread to historic vols. Caution warranted for long vol positions as this can persist with holidays dead ahead.  
Call volumes have rebounded to normal levels with the strong price action.


EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With improved liquidity, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a> is a lower probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.</li>
<li>The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.</li>
</ul>


With improved liquidity, ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) could be added to the HSCEI INDEX early March and then to a global index a couple of weeks later.

ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is a lower probability inclusion to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) given the index committee discretion. Inclusion would further increase the impact.
The stock has had a big drawdown recently and the potential index inclusion and passive demand provide a low-risk entry point into the stock, especially hedged with its peers.


ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> in September 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) listed in October 2023 and was added to one global index in June 2024 and to the HSCEI INDEX in September 2024.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) could be added to a global index in February and there will be a big passive buying impact. The company is also buying back stock.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) has underperformed its peers over the past year and the index inclusion could help in closing some of that gap.


J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/foshan-haitian-flavouring-food-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15577:1" rel="noopener">Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH)</a> has filed for a listing on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$1.5bn.</li>
<li>In line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-f-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44093:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (6936 HK)</a> H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.</li>
<li>The stock will not get Fast Entry to any indices but there should be inclusions at subsequent rebalances, especially once the cornerstone investor lock-up expires.</li>
</ul>



Foshan Haitian Flavouring &amp; Food (603288 CH) has filed for a listing on the HKEX (388 HK) and reports indicate that the raise will be at least US$1.5bn.
In line with the Midea Group (300 HK) and S.F. Holding (6936 HK) H-share listings, the discount on the H-shares could be in the 20-25% range.
The stock will not get Fast Entry to any indices but there should be inclusions at subsequent rebalances, especially once the cornerstone investor lock-up expires.


Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

<ul>
<li>Tough week with 82% of optionable stocks we survey declining on the week but no sign of panic as investors still prefer Calls over Puts. </li>
<li>Tencent was far and away the volume leader, accounting for 37% of all option trading.</li>
<li>Materials was the only Sector to see price gains and implied vol rose across all Sectors we survey.</li>
</ul>


Tough week with 82% of optionable stocks we survey declining on the week but no sign of panic as investors still prefer Calls over Puts. 
Tencent was far and away the volume leader, accounting for 37% of all option trading.
Materials was the only Sector to see price gains and implied vol rose across all Sectors we survey.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly January 06 – 10

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag

HSI saw a sudden upward trend, supported by Tencent's stability. Implied vols softer with caution warranted for long vol positions due to evolving...

John Ley

ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion

There should be 2, possibly 3, index inclusions for ZTO Express in March. There will be a lot to buy from passives and the stock has underperformed...

Brian Freitas

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

J&T Global Express could be added to a global index in Feb and passive trackers will need to buy between 14-31x ADV. The stock has underperformed...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly January 06 – 10

Investors remain calm despite majority of optionable stocks declining, with preference for Calls over Puts; Tencent dominates option trading...

John Ley

EQD | Hong Kong Index Options Weekly (HSI and HSCEI January 13-17): Long Vol Gets a Caution Flag

​HSI saw a sudden upward trend, supported by Tencent's stability. Implied vols softer with caution warranted for long vol positions due to evolving...

John Ley

ZTO Express (2057 HK): On Track for Double (Maybe Triple) Index Inclusion

There should be 2, possibly 3, index inclusions for ZTO Express in March. There will be a lot to buy from passives and the stock has underperformed...

Brian Freitas

J&T Global Express (1519 HK): Global Index Inclusion Coming Up

J&T Global Express could be added to a global index in Feb and passive trackers will need to buy between 14-31x ADV. The stock has underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH): Index Inclusion Post H-Share Listing

Foshan Haitian has filed an application proof for an HKEX listing. Reports indicate a US$1.5bn raise. There will be no index Fast Entry but...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly January 06 – 10

​Investors remain calm despite majority of optionable stocks declining, with preference for Calls over Puts; Tencent dominates option trading...

John Ley

HSI saw a sudden upward trend, supported by Tencent's stability. Implied vols softer with caution warranted for long vol positions due to evolving...

Investors remain calm despite majority of optionable stocks declining, with preference for Calls over Puts; Tencent dominates option trading...