Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

China Overseas Land & Investment / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.</li>
<li>A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.
A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).


China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) - Large Base in 2021/2022 - Material Upside in 2023

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>This week's decline is deemed counter-trend and is in stark conflict with the bullish MT and LT triggers detailed in our bullish publication on 29 March 2023.</li>
<li>Key support levels often combine a number of important moving averages.  92.00/94.50 combines the 20/50 week MA's / 12/26 week EMA's. High risk MT bottom at 92.00/94.50. Target 118.50.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
This week's decline is deemed counter-trend and is in stark conflict with the bullish MT and LT triggers detailed in our bullish publication on 29 March 2023.
Key support levels often combine a number of important moving averages.  92.00/94.50 combines the 20/50 week MA's / 12/26 week EMA's. High risk MT bottom at 92.00/94.50. Target 118.50.


Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988 HK) - Initial Upswing Is Correcting Lower – Testing Key MA Support

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) bottomed in Oct/Nov 2022 around the 61.8% retracement support. The subsequent impulsive multi-month uptrend maintains the bullish LT trend reversal confirmed in 2021.</li>
<li>March 2023 has delivered new bullish breakouts in price and LT momentum that confirm a sustainable LT uptrend bias. Initial target at 5.28 (+13%). Longer term risk to 6.50/6.80 (+40%).</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) bottomed in Oct/Nov 2022 around the 61.8% retracement support. The subsequent impulsive multi-month uptrend maintains the bullish LT trend reversal confirmed in 2021.
March 2023 has delivered new bullish breakouts in price and LT momentum that confirm a sustainable LT uptrend bias. Initial target at 5.28 (+13%). Longer term risk to 6.50/6.80 (+40%).


PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) - Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>XPeng Inc (9868 HK) has this week broken above the falling wedge pattern that captured its Dec/Mar correction. The bullish trend breakout in the weekly RSI confirms the uptrend bias. </li>
<li>Wedge patterns are commonly referred to as “Half Mast” patterns. They typically occur in the middle of trends, making textbook targets easy to calculate. Target 56.10 (+29%) in Q2 2023.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
XPeng Inc (9868 HK) has this week broken above the falling wedge pattern that captured its Dec/Mar correction. The bullish trend breakout in the weekly RSI confirms the uptrend bias. 
Wedge patterns are commonly referred to as “Half Mast” patterns. They typically occur in the middle of trends, making textbook targets easy to calculate. Target 56.10 (+29%) in Q2 2023.


XPeng Inc (9868 HK) - Bullish Technical Triggers Confirm MT Uptrend - Target 25-30% Upswing

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have dropped over the last week as results have trickled in and some of the larger dividend payers have cut their final dividends.</li>
<li>Over 50% of the DIPS are confirmed now and that number will increase significantly over the next couple of days as the remaining companies announce their final dividends.</li>
<li>From our estimates, just over 80% of the DIPS will be confirmed by tomorrow though over 66% of the total DIPS will have CNYHKD risk attached to it.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have dropped over the last week as results have trickled in and some of the larger dividend payers have cut their final dividends.
Over 50% of the DIPS are confirmed now and that number will increase significantly over the next couple of days as the remaining companies announce their final dividends.
From our estimates, just over 80% of the DIPS will be confirmed by tomorrow though over 66% of the total DIPS will have CNYHKD risk attached to it.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Nearing the Pointy End of Results Season

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) - Large Base in 2021/2022 - Material Upside in 2023

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988 HK) - Initial Upswing Is Correcting Lower – Testing Key MA Support

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) - Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

XPeng Inc (9868 HK) - Bullish Technical Triggers Confirm MT Uptrend - Target 25-30% Upswing

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Nearing the Pointy End of Results Season

Over half of 2023 DIPS are now confirmed & will rise to 80% by close tomorrow. There is FX risk attached to most dividends. The 2023/24 steepener...

Brian Freitas