Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.</li>
<li>The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a> are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6440:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.
The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.
While ABB India Ltd (ABB IN) and Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) and Havells India (HAVL IN).  


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> has experienced a decline in revenue due to a slowdown in demand, increased competition, and higher commodity prices. </li>
<li>The Voltas Beko brand has been a ray of hope for the company, with strong growth in demand and market share.</li>
<li>While there may be an upside in volumes as capex kicks in,  but better to be on the sidelines until there is a change in the structure of the industry.</li>
</ul>



Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) has experienced a decline in revenue due to a slowdown in demand, increased competition, and higher commodity prices. 
The Voltas Beko brand has been a ray of hope for the company, with strong growth in demand and market share.
While there may be an upside in volumes as capex kicks in,  but better to be on the sidelines until there is a change in the structure of the industry.


Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Competition Casualty

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Forensic Accounting

HPL Electric & Power / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hpl-electric-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36893:1" rel="noopener">HPL Electric &amp; Power (HPLE IN)</a> is one of the key players in domestic electric meters market and domestic on-load, change-over switches market. The company also manufactures LED products.</li>
<li>Forensic overview of the company indicates poor capital allocation in the past, along with cash generation issues.</li>
<li>One must also keep a note of the inherent credit risk, as well as some interesting line items such as software and designs, on the balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



HPL Electric &amp; Power (HPLE IN) is one of the key players in domestic electric meters market and domestic on-load, change-over switches market. The company also manufactures LED products.
Forensic overview of the company indicates poor capital allocation in the past, along with cash generation issues.
One must also keep a note of the inherent credit risk, as well as some interesting line items such as software and designs, on the balance sheet.


HPL Electric and Power Ltd- Forensic Analysis

<ul>
<li>The demand environment for offline electronic retailers has been good in Q1, the macro factors also point to good growth for FY23. </li>
<li>Companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> have done well. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> has not been able to recover. </li>
<li>Indian consumer no longer wants everything cheap, assuming affordability, quality and brand value is taking prominence. </li>
</ul>


The demand environment for offline electronic retailers has been good in Q1, the macro factors also point to good growth for FY23. 
Companies like Haier Smart Home Co Ltd (6690 HK) and Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) have done well. Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) has not been able to recover. 
Indian consumer no longer wants everything cheap, assuming affordability, quality and brand value is taking prominence. 


India Channel Insight #41 | Haier, Samsung, Voltas

<ul>
<li>We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> has chosen the route of instant gratification by not increasing prices and gaining market share for Lloyd this AC Season. </li>
<li>After-Sales Service and aspirational value for the Lloyd brand is poor, there is no brand loyalty in the segments Lloyd operates in and is price sensitive. </li>
<li>Increased prices and course correction by  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> could result in HAVL giving up some of its recent market share gains building a stronger Bear case for HAVL. </li>
</ul>


We believe Havells India (HAVL IN) has chosen the route of instant gratification by not increasing prices and gaining market share for Lloyd this AC Season. 
After-Sales Service and aspirational value for the Lloyd brand is poor, there is no brand loyalty in the segments Lloyd operates in and is price sensitive. 
Increased prices and course correction by  Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) could result in HAVL giving up some of its recent market share gains building a stronger Bear case for HAVL. 


Havells India (HAVL IN) | Instant Gratification?

India

Havells India Limited manufactures electrical products. The Company's products include building circuit protection equipment, industrial switchgears, energy meters, cables & wires, modular switches, fans and lighting products.

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Havells India (HAVL IN)

India Industrials | Riding the Tailwind

India's strong growth projections require deeper analysis. The industrials sector plays a critical role. ABB IN and POLYCAB IN are compelling,...

Pranav Bhavsar

Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) | Competition Casualty

Voltas is losing market share due to irrational competition, capex can help regain volumes. However, better to wait until the industry structure...

Pranav Bhavsar

HPL Electric and Power Ltd- Forensic Analysis

Forensic overview of the company indicates poor capital allocation in the past, along with cash generation issues, inherent credit risk, as well as...

Nitin Mangal

India Channel Insight #41 | Haier, Samsung, Voltas

The Indian durables market is witnessing changing consumer behaviour aiding an optimistic outlook for FY23 along increasing competitive intensity...

Pranav Bhavsar

Havells India (HAVL IN) | Instant Gratification?

Havells India (HAVL IN) market share gains are expected to be shorted lived, Voltas is expected to fight back and hence the bear case for HAVL.

Pranav Bhavsar

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