Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<div>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.</div><div>
The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
With 6 days to go in the review period, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> as a high probability index addition. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> is the lowest ranked index constituent and is a likely deletion from the index.
There is a (slim) possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> being deleted from the index if it fails the annualised traded value test. As it stands, it is touch and go for the stock.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> and sell over 3.5 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a>. If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a> is deleted instead, passive trackers will need to sell 7 days of ADV on the stock.
In terms of delivery volumes, the impact is much larger with passive trackers needing to buy 8.5 days on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a>, while selling either 8.8 days on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> or 13 days on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nestle-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13101:1" rel="noopener">Nestle India (NEST IN)</a>.
</div>

The S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.
The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.
With 6 days to go in the review period, we see Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) as a high probability index addition. Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) is the lowest ranked index constituent and is a likely deletion from the index.
There is a (slim) possibility of Nestle India (NEST IN) being deleted from the index if it fails the annualised traded value test. As it stands, it is touch and go for the stock.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV on Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) and sell over 3.5 days of ADV on Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN). If Nestle India (NEST IN) is deleted instead, passive trackers will need to sell 7 days of ADV on the stock.
In terms of delivery volumes, the impact is much larger with passive trackers needing to buy 8.5 days on Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN), while selling either 8.8 days on Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) or 13 days on Nestle India (NEST IN).


Sensex Dec 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Should Be Added, Deletion Has An Interesting Option

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

India-based data management and analytics firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eclerx-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17312:1" rel="noopener">eClerx Services (ECLX IN)</a> released their public announcement document for their latest buyback after market close on 20th September 2021. The buyback was initially proposed in a board meeting on 13th August 2021 and later approved by shareholders (postal ballot) on 16th September 2021.  The buyback price has been set at INR2,850/share and eClerx expects to buy up to 1,063,157 shares through a Tender Offer. The total size of the buyback will be approximately INR3bn (~US$41mn). More below the fold. <hr><div class="content-remarks">For more on Indian Buybacks, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-india-buy-back-guide-2021-regulations-patterns" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56892" rel="noopener">Quiddity India Buy-Back Guide 2021: Regulations &amp; Patterns</a> </div>

India-based data management and analytics firm eClerx Services (ECLX IN) released their public announcement document for their latest buyback after market close on 20th September 2021. The buyback was initially proposed in a board meeting on 13th August 2021 and later approved by shareholders (postal ballot) on 16th September 2021.  The buyback price has been set at INR2,850/share and eClerx expects to buy up to 1,063,157 shares through a Tender Offer. The total size of the buyback will be approximately INR3bn (~US$41mn). More below the fold. For more on Indian Buybacks, please see Quiddity India Buy-Back Guide 2021: Regulations &amp; Patterns 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Wisdomtree Japan Hedged Eq / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.After missing out on index inclusion at the June rebalance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> has a high probability of being included at the upcoming review. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> is the most likely deletion from the index.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> will have over 2 days of ADV (and 7 days of delivery volume) to buy from passive funds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3613:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)</a> will have nearly 3.5 days of ADV (10 days of delivery volume) to sell.

The S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) is the flagship index of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The index has 30 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 17 December.The December review uses the market cap and turnover data from 1 May to 31 October to determine the stocks to be included and excluded from the index, and the announcement of the changes is done 4 weeks before the rebalance effective date.After missing out on index inclusion at the June rebalance, Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) has a high probability of being included at the upcoming review. Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) is the most likely deletion from the index.Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) will have over 2 days of ADV (and 7 days of delivery volume) to buy from passive funds while Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) will have nearly 3.5 days of ADV (10 days of delivery volume) to sell.

Sensex Dec 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Could Be IN, Pushing Bajaj Auto OUT

India

HCL Technologies Limited provides software development and related engineering services.  The Group's technologies utilize a variety of technologies, including Internet and e-commerce, networking, internet telephony, embedded software, ASIC/VLSI design and testing, satellite and wireless communications, and component based object technologies, including COM, DCOM and COBRA.

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HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)

Sensex Dec 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Should Be Added, Deletion Has An Interesting Option

Near the end of the review period, we see Wipro as a high probability add. Bajaj Auto could be deleted as the lowest ranked constituent, but Nestle...

Brian Freitas

EClerx Buyback: Adding Fuel to Momentum

India based data management firm eClerx Services launched a US$40mn buyback which is expected to open next month. Fundamentally, the stock appears...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

Sensex Dec 2021 Index Rebalance Preview: Wipro Could Be IN, Pushing Bajaj Auto OUT

Half way through the review period for the Sensex, we expect Wipro replaces Bajaj Auto at the December rebalance. Both stocks trade cheaper than...

Brian Freitas

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