Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q4FY25, deposits grew strong at 15.8% YoY. QoQ, average deposits grew by 3.1%. Time deposits led the growth while growth in CASA deposits was relatively muted.</li>
<li>In line with its stated strategy, HDFCB's loan book has been growing slower than that of deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio. Average AUM grew 7.3% YoY in Q4FY25.</li>
<li>Credit-Deposit ratio is now at 96% vs 110% at merger. Going forward, the adjustment in credit-deposit ratio won't be as steep, thus FY26 is expected to be a normalization year.</li>
</ul>


In Q4FY25, deposits grew strong at 15.8% YoY. QoQ, average deposits grew by 3.1%. Time deposits led the growth while growth in CASA deposits was relatively muted.
In line with its stated strategy, HDFCB's loan book has been growing slower than that of deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio. Average AUM grew 7.3% YoY in Q4FY25.
Credit-Deposit ratio is now at 96% vs 110% at merger. Going forward, the adjustment in credit-deposit ratio won't be as steep, thus FY26 is expected to be a normalization year.


HDFC Bank ("HDFCB"): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is navigating a mix of positive growth indicators and emerging regulatory challenges but average 12-month target is ₹2,194, with estimates ranging from ₹1,627 to ₹2,793.</li>
<li>Consensus rating: predominantly "Buy" from major brokerages, including ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal, citing strong loan growth and stable asset quality.</li>
<li>The stock’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook remain intact, but momentum has stalled in recent weeks following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/time-to-buy-hdfc-bank-hdfcb-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the sharp rally we correctly anticipated from January 14, 2025</a>.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is navigating a mix of positive growth indicators and emerging regulatory challenges but average 12-month target is ₹2,194, with estimates ranging from ₹1,627 to ₹2,793.
Consensus rating: predominantly "Buy" from major brokerages, including ICICI Securities and Motilal Oswal, citing strong loan growth and stable asset quality.
The stock’s strong fundamentals and growth outlook remain intact, but momentum has stalled in recent weeks following the sharp rally we correctly anticipated from January 14, 2025.


HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Knowledge Realty Trust / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/knowledge-realty-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44486:1" rel="noopener">Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN)</a> raised around US$551m in its India IPO. The trust undertook a pre-IPO placement round of around INR14bn (US$160m) in June 2025 as well.</li>
<li>Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India's office supply and gross absorption between CY16-1QCY25, as per the CBRE report.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) raised around US$551m in its India IPO. The trust undertook a pre-IPO placement round of around INR14bn (US$160m) in June 2025 as well.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India's office supply and gross absorption between CY16-1QCY25, as per the CBRE report.
In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Knowledge Realty Trust IPO Trading - Decent Demand; Leads Past REIT Listings

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Rapid decline in Asian inflation is opening up space for central banks to cut rates further. India's real policy rate is almost at record high and so's China's.</li>
<li>Fiscal space exists in economies with low public debt and low fiscal deficit - Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. China and India have implemented and articulated fiscal expansion intentions.</li>
<li>Monetary policy easing supports consumption/investments through lower cost of capital and drives funds into risk assets. In last twenty years, rate cut episodes in Asia unfailingly led to equity booms.</li>
</ul>


Rapid decline in Asian inflation is opening up space for central banks to cut rates further. India's real policy rate is almost at record high and so's China's.
Fiscal space exists in economies with low public debt and low fiscal deficit - Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. China and India have implemented and articulated fiscal expansion intentions.
Monetary policy easing supports consumption/investments through lower cost of capital and drives funds into risk assets. In last twenty years, rate cut episodes in Asia unfailingly led to equity booms.


Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/time-to-buy-hdfc-bank-hdfcb-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Our insight in January 14th 2025</a> signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.</li>
<li>Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).

Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.


Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

HDFC Bank ("HDFCB"): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation

FY26 is expected to be the first normalization year for HDFCB post the merger. HDFC Bank is all set to bring its loan growth back in line with its...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

HDFC Bank momentum has stalled in recent weeks but the stock maintains strong growth outlook with average 12-month target of ₹2,194 and "Buy"...

Nico Rosti

Knowledge Realty Trust IPO Trading - Decent Demand; Leads Past REIT Listings

Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) raised around US$551m in its India IPO. The market value of its assets stood at INR584.5bn (US$6.7bn), as of Mar'25....

Akshat Shah

Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

Asian central banks have room to cut rates further as inflation plunges, with fiscal space in some economies. Rate cut episodes over last 20 yrs...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HDFC Bank ("HDFCB"): Steady Performance in Line with Expectation

FY26 is expected to be the first normalization year for HDFCB post the merger. HDFC Bank is all set to bring its loan growth back in line with its...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HDFC Bank Tactical View: Inflection Point or Just a Pause?

​HDFC Bank momentum has stalled in recent weeks but the stock maintains strong growth outlook with average 12-month target of ₹2,194 and "Buy"...

Nico Rosti

Knowledge Realty Trust IPO Trading - Decent Demand; Leads Past REIT Listings

Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) raised around US$551m in its India IPO. The market value of its assets stood at INR584.5bn (US$6.7bn), as of Mar'25....

Akshat Shah

Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

​Asian central banks have room to cut rates further as inflation plunges, with fiscal space in some economies. Rate cut episodes over last 20 yrs...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

​HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...

Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank momentum has stalled in recent weeks but the stock maintains strong growth outlook with average 12-month target of ₹2,194 and "Buy"...

Asian central banks have room to cut rates further as inflation plunges, with fiscal space in some economies. Rate cut episodes over last 20 yrs...

HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...