Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The stress periods are the times when the mettle of the best gets tested. We are in such a period and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFCB</a> has remained unscathed.</li>
<li>Even Bajaj Finance, which is also rated gold-standard in underwriting and risk management, noted issues with asset quality in the current environment, however, HDFCB's asset quality has remained pristine.</li>
<li>HDFCB's retail NPA ex-Agri has been steady at 0.82%. While HDFCB's competitors have provided a cautious outlook, especially in unsecured loans, HDFCB has provided a stable outlook on asset quality.</li>
</ul>


The stress periods are the times when the mettle of the best gets tested. We are in such a period and HDFCB has remained unscathed.
Even Bajaj Finance, which is also rated gold-standard in underwriting and risk management, noted issues with asset quality in the current environment, however, HDFCB's asset quality has remained pristine.
HDFCB's retail NPA ex-Agri has been steady at 0.82%. While HDFCB's competitors have provided a cautious outlook, especially in unsecured loans, HDFCB has provided a stable outlook on asset quality.


HDFC Bank ("HDFCB"): Separating the Wheat from the Chaff

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>'s Q1FY26 PAT up 12% YoY, driven by strong other income; core NII growth remained modest at 5.4%.</li>
<li>Deposit growth remained robust; CASA revival and CD ratio improvement are key near-term priorities. However, margins under pressure from EBLR resets,but contingent provisions and stable asset quality offer medium-term stability.</li>
<li>Bank should come back to its pre-merger metric by end of FY26. However, current valuation at 3x P/B leaves little room for error.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)'s Q1FY26 PAT up 12% YoY, driven by strong other income; core NII growth remained modest at 5.4%.
Deposit growth remained robust; CASA revival and CD ratio improvement are key near-term priorities. However, margins under pressure from EBLR resets,but contingent provisions and stable asset quality offer medium-term stability.
Bank should come back to its pre-merger metric by end of FY26. However, current valuation at 3x P/B leaves little room for error.


HDFC Bank-Quality Franchise but Credit Growth Will Lag in near Term; Likely Revive in H2FY26 & FY27

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has been rallying strongly since early January 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/time-to-buy-hdfc-bank-hdfcb-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a rally we predicted back then</a>. After 2 weeks down, the stock this week is rising.</li>
<li>However, according to our model the current uptrend pattern does not lead to long-lasting rallies, but rather to new, short-term corrections.</li>
<li>The time horizon for this rally is 1-2 weeks, when this trend pattern is encountered, so we could expect the stock to rally briefly and then pull back again.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has been rallying strongly since early January 2025, a rally we predicted back then. After 2 weeks down, the stock this week is rising.
However, according to our model the current uptrend pattern does not lead to long-lasting rallies, but rather to new, short-term corrections.
The time horizon for this rally is 1-2 weeks, when this trend pattern is encountered, so we could expect the stock to rally briefly and then pull back again.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Outlook: Any Rally From Here May End Quickly

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.</li>
<li>The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> along with large capping changes.</li>
<li>The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.</li>
</ul>


To reduce index concentration and the risk of market volatility and market manipulation, SEBI has recommended changes to the eligibility criteria for derivatives on non-benchmark indices.
The recommended changes will result in two inclusions to the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) along with large capping changes.
The inclusions and capping changes will result in an estimated one-way turnover of 17.05% and in a round-trip trade of INR 76.2bn (US$893m) in September.


NIFTY Bank Index: Impact of the Forecast Methodology Change

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

HDFC Bank ("HDFCB"): Separating the Wheat from the Chaff

HDFCB is entering into normalization phase after transitioning for a couple of years post the merger. Its asset quality remains pristine despite...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

HDFC Bank-Quality Franchise but Credit Growth Will Lag in near Term; Likely Revive in H2FY26 & FY27

HDFC Bank's Q1FY26 NII growth modest at 5.4%.Margins under pressure from EBLR resets. Bank aiming to return to pre-merger metrics by end of FY26,...

Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA