Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Despite ongoing military conflicts and a trade war, Asia ex Japan headline valuations are remarkably stable and robust. North Asia's and India's valuations and growth forecasts are healthier than ASEAN's</li>
<li>North Asia's and India's EPS growth and ROE profile are sturdier. Korea's, Taiwan's, China's and India's forecast EPS growth (2026E) are 15-17%. Conversely, Singapore's, Thailand's, Malaysia's and Philippines' are 4.5-8.5%.</li>
<li>Taiwan and India (15-15.5%) have highest forecast ROEs. Indonesia (13.9%), Philippines (12.6%), HK/China (10-11%) follows. All others have single digit forecast ROE. Our overweights on Korea, HK/CN, India seem justified.</li>
</ul>


Despite ongoing military conflicts and a trade war, Asia ex Japan headline valuations are remarkably stable and robust. North Asia's and India's valuations and growth forecasts are healthier than ASEAN's
North Asia's and India's EPS growth and ROE profile are sturdier. Korea's, Taiwan's, China's and India's forecast EPS growth (2026E) are 15-17%. Conversely, Singapore's, Thailand's, Malaysia's and Philippines' are 4.5-8.5%.
Taiwan and India (15-15.5%) have highest forecast ROEs. Indonesia (13.9%), Philippines (12.6%), HK/China (10-11%) follows. All others have single digit forecast ROE. Our overweights on Korea, HK/CN, India seem justified.


Asian Equities: Growth and ROE Driving Valuation Divergence; North Asia Pockets Robust, ASEAN Feeble

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.</li>
<li>For this edition we focus on select Banking names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN); </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rbl-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22856:1" rel="noopener">RBL Bank Ltd (RBK IN)</a>.</li>
<li>We are bearish on most names except <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We continue our earnings coverage highlighting key earnings and what catches our attention in the conference calls.
For this edition we focus on select Banking names like HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN); Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN); RBL Bank Ltd (RBK IN).
We are bearish on most names except Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) and Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 


Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Banking Special

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


-------------
Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> reported a decent Q2FY25 despite industry headwinds. Average deposits grew 15.5% YoY and 3.1% QoQ. Terms deposits led the growth with 5% QoQ rise.</li>
<li>AUM growth was modest at 10.2% YoY in line with HDFC Bank's stated strategy to grow AUM lower than deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio to a reasonable level.</li>
<li>Asset quality remains stable with GNPA at ~1.35%. ROA and ROE continues to be around 1.9% and 15%, respectively. LCR is now healthy at 128% vs 110% 9M ago.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank reported a decent Q2FY25 despite industry headwinds. Average deposits grew 15.5% YoY and 3.1% QoQ. Terms deposits led the growth with 5% QoQ rise.
AUM growth was modest at 10.2% YoY in line with HDFC Bank's stated strategy to grow AUM lower than deposits to bring down the credit-deposit ratio to a reasonable level.
Asset quality remains stable with GNPA at ~1.35%. ROA and ROE continues to be around 1.9% and 15%, respectively. LCR is now healthy at 128% vs 110% 9M ago.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could see passive outflows in November.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could see passive outflows in November.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

<ul>
<li>Post merger, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank ("HDFCB")</a> has been under pressure in regards to sustaining its loan growth, which very much hinges on rapid deposit growth.</li>
<li>While the deposit growth has been weak, it has been an industry-wide issue. Furthermore, at times, the period-end numbers can be misleading.</li>
<li>Focusing on average numbers paints a better picture of growth. Looking at the averages, deposit growth has been strong at 4.6% QoQ, despite liquidity issues in the banking system.</li>
</ul>


Post merger, HDFC Bank ("HDFCB") has been under pressure in regards to sustaining its loan growth, which very much hinges on rapid deposit growth.
While the deposit growth has been weak, it has been an industry-wide issue. Furthermore, at times, the period-end numbers can be misleading.
Focusing on average numbers paints a better picture of growth. Looking at the averages, deposit growth has been strong at 4.6% QoQ, despite liquidity issues in the banking system.


HDFC Bank: Looking Beyond Reported Numbers

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

Asian Equities: Growth and ROE Driving Valuation Divergence; North Asia Pockets Robust, ASEAN Feeble

Despite conflicts & trade war, AxJ valn remain stable especially in HK/CN, KR, TW & IN. KR, TW, CN & IN have 15-17% f'cast EPS grth. SG, TH, MY,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Banking Special

We cover key earnings and conference call highlights for select Banking names, with a bearish outlook on most except for Axis Bank Ltd and Bandhan...

Pranav Bhavsar

HDFC Bank: Medium-Term Outlook Is Strong

FY25 will see modest credit growth due to merger constraints and weak environment for deposits. However, FY26 onwards, growth is expected to revert...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

HDFC Bank: Looking Beyond Reported Numbers

HDFC Bank's reported numbers are marred by the merger impact and challenging liquidity environment. They do not reflect its true potential....

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Growth and ROE Driving Valuation Divergence; North Asia Pockets Robust, ASEAN Feeble

​Despite conflicts & trade war, AxJ valn remain stable especially in HK/CN, KR, TW & IN. KR, TW, CN & IN have 15-17% f'cast EPS grth. SG, TH, MY,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Namaste India 🙏 | Earnings Edition - Banking Special

We cover key earnings and conference call highlights for select Banking names, with a bearish outlook on most except for Axis Bank Ltd and Bandhan...

Pranav Bhavsar

HDFC Bank: Medium-Term Outlook Is Strong

FY25 will see modest credit growth due to merger constraints and weak environment for deposits. However, FY26 onwards, growth is expected to revert...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 4...

Brian Freitas

HDFC Bank: Looking Beyond Reported Numbers

HDFC Bank's reported numbers are marred by the merger impact and challenging liquidity environment. They do not reflect its true potential....

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Despite conflicts & trade war, AxJ valn remain stable especially in HK/CN, KR, TW & IN. KR, TW, CN & IN have 15-17% f'cast EPS grth. SG, TH, MY,...