Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more than five years.</li><li>Similar price-spreads in all those markets contrast with diverging fundamentals driving those similar price-spreads, especially in Europe.</li><li>Similar price-spreads in US vs other markets follow sustained weakness of US heavy-grade prices because of persistent surplus supply.</li></ul>

Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more than five years.Similar price-spreads in all those markets contrast with diverging fundamentals driving those similar price-spreads, especially in Europe.Similar price-spreads in US vs other markets follow sustained weakness of US heavy-grade prices because of persistent surplus supply.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

<ul><li>Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.</li><li>Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.</li><li>Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.</li></ul>

Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

<ul><li>Global base oils prices mostly fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export values under more pressure.</li><li>Even at lower levels, price-differentials mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output of most base oils grades.</li><li>FOB Asia base oils cargo prices hold steady versus Singapore gasoil.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices mostly fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export values under more pressure.Even at lower levels, price-differentials mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output of most base oils grades.FOB Asia base oils cargo prices hold steady versus Singapore gasoil.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

CG Power and Industrial Solutions / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-June in July. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-December.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 5 could have passive outflows in August.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

<ul><li>Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold at elevated levels vs Singapore gasoil, even if lower than in Q2 2025.</li><li>Firm heavy-grade margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output, even amid signs of pick-up in surplus supplies.</li><li>Asia’s Group II heavy-grade prices hold at levels that keep open arbitrage from US and keep shut arbitrage to Americas.</li></ul>

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold at elevated levels vs Singapore gasoil, even if lower than in Q2 2025.Firm heavy-grade margins sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output, even amid signs of pick-up in surplus supplies.Asia’s Group II heavy-grade prices hold at levels that keep open arbitrage from US and keep shut arbitrage to Americas.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 July

India

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and manufactures petroleum and petroleum products. The Company's products, which are sold via outlets throughout India, include lube products, lubricating oil, aviation fuel, hydraulic brake fluid, greases, liquefied petroleum gas and insecticides. The Government of India is the majority shareholder in the company.

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Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL IN)

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024. Lower heavy-grade base oils...

Base Oil News

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August

Global base oils prices mostly fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export values under more pressure. Even at lower levels,...

Base Oil News

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in August

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 2...

Brian Freitas

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 July

Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold at elevated levels vs Singapore gasoil, even if lower than in Q2 2025. Firm heavy-grade margins sustain...

Base Oil News

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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