Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

While the ongoing slowdown in China and concerns about the global economy are expected to continue to weigh on Indonesia’s exports, gradually improving domestic demand is likely to see non-oil imports growth move back into positive territory. The four rate cuts that Bank Indonesia has undertaken since the start of 2016 is expected to provide a lift to domestic demand in the economy.On a 3 month moving average (3mma) basis, exports declined 8.8% y-o-y in June compared to a decline of 11.9% in…

While the ongoing slowdown in China and concerns about the global economy are expected to continue to weigh on Indonesia’s exports, gradually improving domestic demand is likely to see non-oil imports growth move back into positive territory. The four rate cuts that Bank Indonesia has undertaken since the start of 2016 is expected to provide a lift to domestic demand in the economy.On a 3 month moving average (3mma) basis, exports declined 8.8% y-o-y in June compared to a decline of 11.9% in…

Indonesia: Non-Oil Imports Growth Likely to Turn Positive on Gradually Improving Domestic Demand

Investor with primary focus on consumer sector

Vaibhav Saharan

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/06/14/govt-to-limit-public-smoking-areas.html" target="_blank">Newsflow</a> around President Jokowi's comments on a potential FCTC ratification by Indonesia and limiting public smoking areas resulted in &gt;5% correction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/722" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722">Gudang Garam Tbk Pt</a> (and also <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/617" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617">Hm Sampoerna Tbk Pt</a>) earlier this week. On the face of it, the price reaction appears to be knee-jerk and presents an attractive entry price for &gt;25% returns. Gudang Garam fell closer to 17x 2016 EPS in the correction and ~15% from last month's peak. The president mentioned the need for a healthier young generation…

Newsflow around President Jokowi's comments on a potential FCTC ratification by Indonesia and limiting public smoking areas resulted in &gt;5% correction in Gudang Garam Tbk Pt (and also Hm Sampoerna Tbk Pt) earlier this week. On the face of it, the price reaction appears to be knee-jerk and presents an attractive entry price for &gt;25% returns. Gudang Garam fell closer to 17x 2016 EPS in the correction and ~15% from last month's peak. The president mentioned the need for a healthier young generation…

Gudang Garam: Newsflow Related Correction Presents Good Opportunity

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Many companies that had previously been big investors in Chinese manufacturing plants are now considering their options. An increasing number argue that the ASEAN countries have a lot to offer, particularly with the removal of tariff barriers.

Many companies that had previously been big investors in Chinese manufacturing plants are now considering their options. An increasing number argue that the ASEAN countries have a lot to offer, particularly with the removal of tariff barriers.

Cigarettes industry in IndonesiaIndonesia is one of the world's largest cigarette markets with annual legal volume &gt;300 billion sticks. Indonesians' love for their kreteks (70% tobacco, 30% clove) reflects in the industry's low price elasticity: &gt;10% pricing in 2015 led to only a slight fall in volumes. While the tobacco model globally has shifted to pricing led margin and profit gains in the face of declining volumes, Indonesia is perhaps the only large market that can still be expected to grow…

Cigarettes industry in IndonesiaIndonesia is one of the world's largest cigarette markets with annual legal volume &gt;300 billion sticks. Indonesians' love for their kreteks (70% tobacco, 30% clove) reflects in the industry's low price elasticity: &gt;10% pricing in 2015 led to only a slight fall in volumes. While the tobacco model globally has shifted to pricing led margin and profit gains in the face of declining volumes, Indonesia is perhaps the only large market that can still be expected to grow…

Gudang Garam: Encouraging Revenue Trend, Target Price >80,000

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately starting to play out; although markets currently feel very oversold and could rally sharply over the short term, we believe that there is further downside for EM equities in absolute and relative terms over the remainder of the year.

Indonesia

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

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HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)

Indonesia: Non-Oil Imports Growth Likely to Turn Positive on Gradually Improving Domestic Demand

While the ongoing slowdown in China and concerns about the global economy are expected to continue to weigh on Indonesia’s exports, gradually...

Rajan Govil

China or ASEAN? - You Choose

Many companies that had previously been big investors in Chinese manufacturing plants are now considering their options. An increasing number argue...

Bixmoor

Gudang Garam: Encouraging Revenue Trend, Target Price >80,000

Cigarettes industry in IndonesiaIndonesia is one of the world's largest cigarette markets with annual legal volume >300 billion sticks....

Vaibhav Saharan

China and the EM Ugly Contest

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately...

John-Paul Smith

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesia: Non-Oil Imports Growth Likely to Turn Positive on Gradually Improving Domestic Demand

While the ongoing slowdown in China and concerns about the global economy are expected to continue to weigh on Indonesia’s exports, gradually...

Rajan Govil

Gudang Garam: Newsflow Related Correction Presents Good Opportunity

Newsflow around President Jokowi's comments on a potential FCTC ratification by Indonesia and limiting public smoking areas resulted in >5%...

Vaibhav Saharan

China or ASEAN? - You Choose

Many companies that had previously been big investors in Chinese manufacturing plants are now considering their options. An increasing number argue...

Bixmoor

Gudang Garam: Encouraging Revenue Trend, Target Price >80,000

Cigarettes industry in IndonesiaIndonesia is one of the world's largest cigarette markets with annual legal volume >300 billion sticks....

Vaibhav Saharan

China and the EM Ugly Contest

Our bearish outlook for 2016 predicated on the rising risk of a “sudden stop” for China and uncontrolled FX depreciation across EM is unfortunately...

John-Paul Smith