Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Midea Group (300 HK) IPO is being offered at a price range of HK$52-54.8/share, a discount of 20.9%-25% to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group</a>. That will raise US$3.28bn-US$3.46bn for the company.</li>
<li>Midea Group (300 HK) will not get Fast Entry to the HSCI but will be added to Southbound Stock Connect on 14 October once the price stabilisation period has ended.</li>
<li>Midea Group (300 HK) should get Fast Entry to one global index and that could lead to inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> too.</li>
</ul>


The Midea Group (300 HK) IPO is being offered at a price range of HK$52-54.8/share, a discount of 20.9%-25% to Midea Group. That will raise US$3.28bn-US$3.46bn for the company.
Midea Group (300 HK) will not get Fast Entry to the HSCI but will be added to Southbound Stock Connect on 14 October once the price stabilisation period has ended.
Midea Group (300 HK) should get Fast Entry to one global index and that could lead to inclusion in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) too.


Midea Group (300 HK): IPO Open Now; Upcoming Index Flows

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> at the close on 20 September.</li>
<li>The appears to be a lot more positioning and short interest in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The listing of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)</a> H-shares could result in another change for the ETF prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.</li>
</ul>



China Tower (788 HK) will replace China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) in the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) at the close on 20 September.
The appears to be a lot more positioning and short interest in China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) compared to China Tower (788 HK). 
The listing of Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) H-shares could result in another change for the ETF prior to the next scheduled rebalance in December.


FXI Rebalance: China Tower (788 HK) Will Replace CICC (3908 HK)

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Asia Ex-Japan fund managers continue to reduce their positions in Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing.</li>
<li>Percentage of funds invested and the average weight of the stock in portfolios have been on a downward trend since the recent peak in early 2023</li>
<li>Wave of position closures in 2024 by Allianz, T Rowe Price, and Baillie Gifford has resulted in over half of the historical investor base exiting the stock</li>
</ul>


Asia Ex-Japan fund managers continue to reduce their positions in Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing.
Percentage of funds invested and the average weight of the stock in portfolios have been on a downward trend since the recent peak in early 2023
Wave of position closures in 2024 by Allianz, T Rowe Price, and Baillie Gifford has resulted in over half of the historical investor base exiting the stock


HK Exchanges:  Position Cuts Deepen Among Asia Ex-Japan Funds

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the potential corporate action (see additional reading below) there is more interest in Haitong Securities but operationally it does not appear positive, for many reasons</li>
<li>The company is seeing worse revenue growth in asset management, brokerage and investment banking, while its Haitong Bank can see far higher credit costs</li>
<li>Total operating costs are now 63% of revenue, tax rate is a lot higher, litigation risks seem to be oversized, with potential impact to costs</li>
</ul>


With the potential corporate action (see additional reading below) there is more interest in Haitong Securities but operationally it does not appear positive, for many reasons
The company is seeing worse revenue growth in asset management, brokerage and investment banking, while its Haitong Bank can see far higher credit costs
Total operating costs are now 63% of revenue, tax rate is a lot higher, litigation risks seem to be oversized, with potential impact to costs


Haitong Securities - Portugal Bank Goodwill Impairment Surge | Overall: High Costs, Poor Revenue

<ul>
<li>With the review cutoff done, we expect just one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> ETF in September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tower-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27037:1" rel="noopener">China Tower (788 HK)</a> is a high probability inclusion while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> is a high probability deletion.</li>
<li>There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume for both stocks in the last few months, but the pace has slowed noticeably in the recent past.</li>
</ul>


With the review cutoff done, we expect just one change for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in September.

China Tower (788 HK) is a high probability inclusion while China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is a high probability deletion.
There has been an increase in cumulative excess volume for both stocks in the last few months, but the pace has slowed noticeably in the recent past.


FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Limited owns and operates the stock exchange, futures exchange, and their related clearing houses in Hong Kong.  The Company provides the trading platforms for a range of cash and derivatives products and the facilities for processing trades.

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HKEX (388 HK)

Midea Group (300 HK): IPO Open Now; Upcoming Index Flows

Midea Group is offering the H-shares at a 20.9-25% discount to the A-shares and is expected to list on 17 Sep. The H-shares could get Fast Entry to...

Brian Freitas

FXI Rebalance: China Tower (788 HK) Will Replace CICC (3908 HK)

China Tower will replace CICC in the FXI at the close on 20 Sep. Passives need to buy 2x ADV in China Tower. Cumulative excess volume and short...

Brian Freitas

HK Exchanges: Position Cuts Deepen Among Asia Ex-Japan Funds

Wave of position closures in 2024 by Allianz, T Rowe Price, and Baillie Gifford has resulted in over half of the historical investor base exiting...

Steven Holden

Haitong Securities - Portugal Bank Goodwill Impairment Surge | Overall: High Costs, Poor Revenue

Profit down 75% YoY and revenue down 32% YoY in latest results just out for 1H24. Risks still remain for this company, and potentially worsening...

Daniel Tabbush

FXI Rebalance Preview: China Tower (788 HK) Could Replace CICC (3908 HK)

China Tower could replace CICC in the FXI in Sep. Shorts have been covering China Tower and increasing in CICC and the cumulative excess volume...

Brian Freitas

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