Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside.</li><li> Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.</li><li>Room for further rate cuts on easing inflation and as demonetization hurts growth; downside risk to overvalued rupee with slow growth and rise in US yields.</li></ul>

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural reforms.Room for further rate cuts on easing inflation and as demonetization hurts growth; downside risk to overvalued rupee with slow growth and rise in US yields.

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

The INR is near all time lows. We are doubtful that people are aware that HDFC Bank has been the most aggressive bank in the country at increasing its foreign lending. This is not only at odds with the perception of the bank’s marginal lending focus, but it can result in meaningful new NPLs. This is especially the case where USD borrowings are used for INR investing.  It is also almost certainly the case that nearly all of this foreign lending is not consumer lending, which is purportedly what…

The INR is near all time lows. We are doubtful that people are aware that HDFC Bank has been the most aggressive bank in the country at increasing its foreign lending. This is not only at odds with the perception of the bank’s marginal lending focus, but it can result in meaningful new NPLs. This is especially the case where USD borrowings are used for INR investing.  It is also almost certainly the case that nearly all of this foreign lending is not consumer lending, which is purportedly what…

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great store of value, even by its own standards this fall is alarming in its speed.  Turkey has USD420bn of external debt of which about USD100bn is short term (2015 Nominal GDP was UD718bn). The country continues to run a a current account deficit despite politically unacceptably low growth and a low oil price (it is an oil importer). Unemployment has been…

Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian referendum, as expected, produced a bad outcome for believers in the single European currency but as it turns out it was so widely expected that it triggered short covering in the Euro. I would highlight a few data points in the next few days that may add to dollar strength, cement the break-out in the DXY and lead to an acceleration in the up-trend in…

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

India

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. HDFC provides housing finance company. The Company provides wide range of housing loans, loan for home improvement, extensions, top ups, and non housing loans and loans for non resident Indian (NRI). HDFC serves customers in India, kuwait, Singapore, Oman, UAE, and the United Kingdom.

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HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)

Marketnomix Insights : India Outlook

Growth outlook remains tilted to the downside. Fiscal and Monetary Policy have become confusing amidst a lack of meaningful structural...

Rajan Govil

Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the...

Stewart Paterson

Peeling the Layers at HDFC Bank

The INR is near all time lows. We are doubtful that people are aware that HDFC Bank has been the most aggressive bank in the country at increasing...

Daniel Tabbush

Money Matters: Is the Lira Signalling Default Is on the Way?

The Turkish Lira has plummeted 14.5% against the dollar and 11% against the Euro since the start of October. While the Lira has never been a great...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Short-Term Dollar Catalysts.

Having broken convincingly through 100, the DXY (trade weighted dollar index) has pulled back in the past few days to test its break. The Italian...

Stewart Paterson

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