External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>HSBC's stock is trading at high multiples, but a drop in 1M HIBOR could reduce their 2026 EPS by about 10%, a risk not yet reflected in estimates.</li><li>The bank's net interest income is more sensitive to low HIBOR rates than disclosed, raising concerns for management about prolonged low rates.</li><li>In a bearish scenario, HSBC's stock could decline by 20%, while Barclays presents a strong long opportunity with expected NII growth and undervaluation.</li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)HSBC's stock is trading at high multiples, but a drop in 1M HIBOR could reduce their 2026 EPS by about 10%, a risk not yet reflected in estimates.The bank's net interest income is more sensitive to low HIBOR rates than disclosed, raising concerns for management about prolonged low rates.In a bearish scenario, HSBC's stock could decline by 20%, while Barclays presents a strong long opportunity with expected NII growth and undervaluation.This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Hsbc Hldgs Plc (HSBC) - Monday, Jul 14, 2025

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>HSBC holds 19% of BoCom and still carries it with a value of USD23.3bn despite the stock market valuation putting it closer to USD8.1bn on YE22 figures. </li>
<li>The bank cites its Value In Use testing as the justifiable reason for this gap, and this testing will include major assumptions like discount rates and long term growth rates.</li>
<li>Goodwill and other intangible charges were USD10.6bn in FY08, USD3.4bn in FY16, and USD7.4bn in FY19 for HSBC. </li>
</ul>


HSBC holds 19% of BoCom and still carries it with a value of USD23.3bn despite the stock market valuation putting it closer to USD8.1bn on YE22 figures. 
The bank cites its Value In Use testing as the justifiable reason for this gap, and this testing will include major assumptions like discount rates and long term growth rates.
Goodwill and other intangible charges were USD10.6bn in FY08, USD3.4bn in FY16, and USD7.4bn in FY19 for HSBC. 


HSBC - Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New high frequency data from the Fed in its weekly H8 series for US banks, shows loan growth at 5.22% YoY in week 12 November</li>
<li>There has not been a higher rate in a long time, since mid FY23 where the data is distorted from a low base effect in FY22</li>
<li>Steepening slope of weekly loan growth together with no real rise in loan loss allowance, gives a strong view of US credit metrics, demand</li>
</ul>


New high frequency data from the Fed in its weekly H8 series for US banks, shows loan growth at 5.22% YoY in week 12 November
There has not been a higher rate in a long time, since mid FY23 where the data is distorted from a low base effect in FY22
Steepening slope of weekly loan growth together with no real rise in loan loss allowance, gives a strong view of US credit metrics, demand


US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Accelerating Further at 5.22% YoY, Highest Pace in 2 Years

<ul>
<li>There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength</li>
<li>CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital</li>
<li>Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating</li>
</ul>


There is good HFD out from the Fed on weekly balance sheets and commercial paper outstanding, suggesting continued underlying strength
CP outstanding for non-financials is rising at rate of 19% YoY in most recent week, which is relatively strong growth for short duration working capital
Weekly loan growth data is 5.09% YoY for week of 5 November, one of highest growth rates in recent weeks, with LDR expansion accelerating


US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
HKEX Expands Weekly Options: Five new single-stock weeklies debut on 10 November, broadening Hong Kong’s fast-growing short-dated options market.</li>
<li>
Why It Matters: Weeklies let traders and investors hedge or speculate around key events with precision, lower premiums, and higher gamma exposure.</li>
<li>
Momentum: Trading volumes in existing weeklies have surged—up nearly fourfold since launch—underscoring rising investor adoption and liquidity.</li>
</ul>



HKEX Expands Weekly Options: Five new single-stock weeklies debut on 10 November, broadening Hong Kong’s fast-growing short-dated options market.

Why It Matters: Weeklies let traders and investors hedge or speculate around key events with precision, lower premiums, and higher gamma exposure.

Momentum: Trading volumes in existing weeklies have surged—up nearly fourfold since launch—underscoring rising investor adoption and liquidity.


HKEX Adds Five New Weekly Options on 10 Nov: AIA, China Mobile, Xiaomi Join Fast-Growing Line-Up

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance. HSBC Holdings operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (HSBC US)

Hsbc Hldgs Plc (HSBC) - Monday, Jul 14, 2025

HSBC's stock may face a 20% decline due to HIBOR risks impacting EPS, while Barclays offers a strong long opportunity with consistent NII growth...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

HSBC - Gap of USD15bn on Carrying Value Vs Fair Value of BoCom, as China Economy Weakens More

HSBC still carries its 19% investment in BoCom at a very high value compared with the market value and with a far weaker China outlook, we are not...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - New HFD Shows Loans Accelerating Further at 5.22% YoY, Highest Pace in 2 Years

New weekly data from the Fed shows loans accelerating for US banks and with loan loss reserves still stable, suggesting strong credit market, overall.

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - CP at +19% YoY, LDR Expansion Accelerates, Weekly Loans +5% YoY

High frequency data from Fed on commercial paper and balance sheets is positive. Loans are accelerating to 5% YoY and CP is at 19% YoY, with LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

HKEX Adds Five New Weekly Options on 10 Nov: AIA, China Mobile, Xiaomi Join Fast-Growing Line-Up

Today, Weekly Options debut in Xiaomi (1810 HK), AIA Group (1299 HK), SMIC (981 HK), China Mobile (941 HK), and CNOOC (883 HK).

Gaudenz Schneider

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