Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade</li>
<li>There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks</li>
<li>This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level</li>
</ul>


Tsingshan metals has reached an agreement with bankers on nickel trade
There is risk of significant impairments at STAN and other counter-party banks
This comes at a time when STAN's impairment costs are starting off at a low level


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 11.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short interest increases for HSBC, Techtronic, SHK Properties, Kuaishou. </li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Mar 11.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short interest increases for HSBC, Techtronic, SHK Properties, Kuaishou. 


HK Short Interest: HSBC, Techtronic, SHK Properties, Kuaishou

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$488bn and has been falling mainly as a result of a falling market. Short interest has increased substantially from end January.</li>
<li>From 31 January to 4 March, the largest shorts have been built on Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group Ltd, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi Solar.</li>
<li>Over the same period, shorts have covered on COSCO Shipping Holdings, HKEX, Longfor Properties, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and HSBC Holdings.</li>
</ul>


Short notional in Hong Kong is HK$488bn and has been falling mainly as a result of a falling market. Short interest has increased substantially from end January.
From 31 January to 4 March, the largest shorts have been built on Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group Ltd, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi Solar.
Over the same period, shorts have covered on COSCO Shipping Holdings, HKEX, Longfor Properties, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and HSBC Holdings.


Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?

<ul>
<li>Disappointment with HSBC appears to be the norm rather than the exception</li>
<li>Quarterly profit halved from earlier quarters, suggesting earlier quarters inflated </li>
<li>Low yield cash assets do not appear to be falling, while funding costs just starting to rise</li>
</ul>


Disappointment with HSBC appears to be the norm rather than the exception
Quarterly profit halved from earlier quarters, suggesting earlier quarters inflated 
Low yield cash assets do not appear to be falling, while funding costs just starting to rise


<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenovo-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13359:1" rel="noopener">Lenovo (992 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The largest outflows will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest inflows will be on Alibaba Group (9988 HK), JD.com Inc. (9618 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK) and Lenovo (992 HK). 
The largest outflows will be on HSBC Holdings (5 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), China Construction Bank H (939 HK) and Tongcheng-Elong Holdings Ltd (780 HK).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: March Rebalance Flows Post Capping

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)

Standard Chartered - Nickel and Dimes

The surge in nickel prices and the wrong-way trade(s) will mean bank counter-party risk, with STAN being highlighted in reports. ROA risk can be...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest: HSBC, Techtronic, SHK Properties, Kuaishou

We highlight week on week short interest increases for HSBC, Techtronic, SHK Properties, Kuaishou based on the latest HK SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong: Where Have Shorts Increased & Decreased?

From 31 Jan to 4 March, most shorted stocks are Tencent, China Merchants Bank, AIA Group, Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD Health and Xinyi...

Brian Freitas

HSBC - Underwhelming Continues

HSBC continues to underwhelm with impairments, poor cost controls, and declining LDR. Recurring concerns with this bank appear normal, rather than...

Daniel Tabbush

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: March Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The March rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indexes will use todays closing price to cap the stocks. The one-way trade across the HS, HSCEI and...

Brian Freitas

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