China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We estimate that SMICs 7nm yield is &gt;70% with capacity of 19k 7nm wafers per month.  We expect SMIC will be able to ship 5nm by 2026 .</li>
<li>We expect Huawei’s wafer demand to reach 18k~ 7nm per month, which would have revenue gain of US$ 550mn~ per quarter to SMIC. We raise SMIC TP to HK$ 27.</li>
<li>We expect Huawei to reach 18% share of the China smartphone market in 2024. We expect Apple and Xiaomi’s China market share to decline by 2ppt and 0.8ppt YoY, respectively.</li>
</ul>


We estimate that SMICs 7nm yield is &gt;70% with capacity of 19k 7nm wafers per month.  We expect SMIC will be able to ship 5nm by 2026 .
We expect Huawei’s wafer demand to reach 18k~ 7nm per month, which would have revenue gain of US$ 550mn~ per quarter to SMIC. We raise SMIC TP to HK$ 27.
We expect Huawei to reach 18% share of the China smartphone market in 2024. We expect Apple and Xiaomi’s China market share to decline by 2ppt and 0.8ppt YoY, respectively.


[Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: SMIC 7nm and 5nm Sufficient for Huawei Rejuvenation

<ul>
<li>Nayuki/Luckin: Food safety issue happened on one store of Mixue</li>
<li>981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR: Tax authorities increase the tax-deductible amount for R&amp;D (+)</li>
<li>LI: LI's latest weekly sales were unaffected by Wenjie (+)</li>
</ul>


Nayuki/Luckin: Food safety issue happened on one store of Mixue
981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR: Tax authorities increase the tax-deductible amount for R&amp;D (+)
LI: LI's latest weekly sales were unaffected by Wenjie (+)


China TMT Update-Nayuki/Luckin/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR/LI-Food Safety Issue/Increase the Tax-Deductible

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, CCB, China Mobile, CNOOC, HKEX.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, CCB, China Mobile, CNOOC, HKEX.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (August): $8.8bn Outflows

<ul>
<li>From what we understand, the Kirin 9000s that powers Huawei’s new 5G phone is the same 9000 that launched in 2020, only refitted from TSMC’s 5nm to SMIC’s 7nm. </li>
<li>The good news is capacity will likely reach 50-60mn a year, or 17% of China’s smartphone volume in 2022;</li>
<li>Huawei’s launch of 5G does speak volumes about the strides China’s semiconductor supply chain has made, but its timing also takes advantage of the defusing of geopolitical tensions.</li>
</ul>


From what we understand, the Kirin 9000s that powers Huawei’s new 5G phone is the same 9000 that launched in 2020, only refitted from TSMC’s 5nm to SMIC’s 7nm. 
The good news is capacity will likely reach 50-60mn a year, or 17% of China’s smartphone volume in 2022;
Huawei’s launch of 5G does speak volumes about the strides China’s semiconductor supply chain has made, but its timing also takes advantage of the defusing of geopolitical tensions.


[Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: Huawei Mate 60 Is a Win-Win for Both US and China

<ul>
<li>ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions likely to exempt publicly traded securities (+/+/+)</li>
<li>NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price of its 001 model (-/-)</li>
<li>XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y prices and offers insurance subsidy for Model 3 (-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions likely to exempt publicly traded securities (+/+/+)
NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price of its 001 model (-/-)
XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y prices and offers insurance subsidy for Model 3 (-/-/-)


China TMT Update-ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK/NIO/1211.HK/XPEV/BYD-Tesla Cuts Model Y Prices/Geely Cuts Price

China

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

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Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)

[Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: SMIC 7nm and 5nm Sufficient for Huawei Rejuvenation

We expect Huawei’s wafer demand to reach 18k~ 7nm per month, which would have revenue gain of US$ 550mn~ per quarter to SMIC. We raise SMIC TP to...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-Nayuki/Luckin/981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR/LI-Food Safety Issue/Increase the Tax-Deductible

Nayuki/Luckin: Food safety issue happened on one store of Mixue; 981.HK/1347.HK/ACMR: Tax authorities increase the tax-deductible amount/LI: LI's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Hong Kong Connect Flows (August): $8.8bn Outflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for the month of August and highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, China Mobile, CNOOC, HKEX.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Blue Lotus Hardware Sector Update]: Huawei Mate 60 Is a Win-Win for Both US and China

Huawei’s launch of 5G does speak volumes about the strides China’s semiconductor supply chain has made, but its timing also takes advantage of the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China TMT Update-ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK/NIO/1211.HK/XPEV/BYD-Tesla Cuts Model Y Prices/Geely Cuts Price

ACMR/981.HK/1347.HK: US outbound investment restrictions;NIO/1211 HK: Geely's sub-brand Zeekr cut price;XPEV/NIO/BYD: Tesla China cuts Model Y...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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