Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We remain impressed with Hyundai Rotem's aggressive new orders for defense and railway systems.</li>
<li>Defense exports as a percentage of total sales increased from 0% in 2021 to 6.1% in 2022, 19% in 2023, and 36.4% in 2024.</li>
<li>Hyundai Rotem had an order backlog of 14.1 trillion won at the end of 2024. Order backlog/sales ratio was 3.2x in 2024. </li>
</ul>


We remain impressed with Hyundai Rotem's aggressive new orders for defense and railway systems.
Defense exports as a percentage of total sales increased from 0% in 2021 to 6.1% in 2022, 19% in 2023, and 36.4% in 2024.
Hyundai Rotem had an order backlog of 14.1 trillion won at the end of 2024. Order backlog/sales ratio was 3.2x in 2024. 


Hyundai Rotem: Surging Growth of Defense Exports

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. </li>
<li>Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. </li>
<li>The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we provide the top 10 stocks picks and key catalysts in the Korean stock market for the two weeks starting 14 April. 
Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period. 
The top 10 picks in this bi-weekly include Binggrae, Hyundai Rotem, Krafton, Nongshim, SK Telecom, Hanwha Systems, APR, SK Inc, Korean Air, and Samsung Heavy Industries. 


Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Apr 18th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Hanmi Semi, SK Hynix, Samsung Electro-Mech, Sk Innovation, Ls Electric, Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Apr 18th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Hanmi Semi, SK Hynix, Samsung Electro-Mech, Sk Innovation, Ls Electric, Samsung Electronics.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 18th): Hanmi Semi, SK Hynix, Samsung Electro-Mech, Sk Innovation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are a few stocks in Korea that have outperformed/ underperformed their peers and could be added to or deleted from global passive portfolios next month.</li>
<li>There could be buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-rotem-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1554:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Rotem</a>, while there could be selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1112:1" rel="noopener">KT Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-pharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:992:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Pharm</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kum-yang-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10364:1" rel="noopener">Kum Yang</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-engineering-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4292:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering &amp; Construction</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-steel-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:963:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Steel</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmoam-t-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10360:1" rel="noopener">CosmoAM&amp;T</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-f-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14300:1" rel="noopener">L&amp;F</a>.</li>
<li>Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$57m to US$230m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 3x-14.5x of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are a few stocks in Korea that have outperformed/ underperformed their peers and could be added to or deleted from global passive portfolios next month.
There could be buying in Hyundai Rotem, while there could be selling in KT Corp, Celltrion Pharm, Kum Yang, Hyundai Engineering &amp; Construction, Hyundai Steel, CosmoAM&amp;T and L&amp;F.
Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$57m to US$230m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 3x-14.5x of ADV to trade.


Korea: Stocks with Potential Passive Flows in November

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The cutoff market cap is around ₩3.6T, and Hyundai Rotem is the only stock that screens into the inclusion zone.</li>
<li>Hyundai Rotem might see a repeat of LS Electric’s pattern: heavy chasing towards screening and a big dive at the decision. Watch for aggressive momentum trades starting late September.</li>
<li>The stock with the lowest full market cap, Kum Yang, is at risk, but Celltrion Pharm is close behind. KT Corp’s exclusion might save Kum Yang or Celltrion Pharm.</li>
</ul>


The cutoff market cap is around ₩3.6T, and Hyundai Rotem is the only stock that screens into the inclusion zone.
Hyundai Rotem might see a repeat of LS Electric’s pattern: heavy chasing towards screening and a big dive at the decision. Watch for aggressive momentum trades starting late September.
The stock with the lowest full market cap, Kum Yang, is at risk, but Celltrion Pharm is close behind. KT Corp’s exclusion might save Kum Yang or Celltrion Pharm.


Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat

South Korea

Hyundai Rotem Company Ltd. manufactures railroad equipment and defense vehicles. The Company produces high-speed trains, light rail vehicles, locomotives, and passenger coaches, main battle tanks, armored recovery vehicles, and related defense equipment. Hyundai Rotem operates worldwide.

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Hyundai Rotem Company (064350 KS)

Hyundai Rotem: Surging Growth of Defense Exports

Hyundai Rotem's defense exports as a percentage of total sales increased from 0% in 2021 to 6.1% in 2022, 19% in 2023, and 36.4% in 2024.

Douglas Kim

Top 10 Korean Stock Picks and Key Catalysts Bi-Weekly (Starting 14 April 2025)

Our top 10 picks in the most recent bi-weekly was down 2.5% on average, outperforming KOSPI which was down 4.9% in the same period.

Douglas Kim

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 18th): Hanmi Semi, SK Hynix, Samsung Electro-Mech, Sk Innovation

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Hanmi Semi, SK Hynix, Samsungelecmech, Sk...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Korea: Stocks with Potential Passive Flows in November

There could be 1 add and up to 7 deletes from global passive portfolios in Nov. Trackers will need to trade between US$57m to US$230m of the...

Brian Freitas

Global Index Korea: Hyundai Rotem Is the Only One Screened. Watch for a Possible LS Electric Repeat

In the November review of the Global Index Korea Standard, Hyundai Rotem is the only stock that screens in. This post explores whether Hyundai...

Sanghyun Park

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