Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN)</a> Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yes-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1" rel="noopener">Yes Bank (YES IN)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idfc-first-bank-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26934:1" rel="noopener">IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN)</a> targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Yes Bank (YES IN) vs. IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Yes Bank (YES IN) and short IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN) targets a 9% return to the statistical mean reversion level.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Yes Bank (YES IN) Vs. IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Quant Divergence Opens Statistical Arb Window

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)</a> reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.</li>
<li>Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.</li>
<li>Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank (FB IN)),</a>or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY) reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.
Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.
Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (Federal Bank (FB IN)),or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.


EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors (TTMT IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX)</a> after the close on 19 December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade between 3.6-7.7x ADV in the stocks and that increases significantly to 7.1-12x delivery volume.</li>
<li>There are indications that positioning has built up in both stocks over the last few weeks. However, in both cases, positioning is expected to be smaller than the passive selling.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) will replace Tata Motors (TTMT IN) in the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) after the close on 19 December.
Passive trackers will need to trade between 3.6-7.7x ADV in the stocks and that increases significantly to 7.1-12x delivery volume.
There are indications that positioning has built up in both stocks over the last few weeks. However, in both cases, positioning is expected to be smaller than the passive selling.


SENSEX Index Rebalance: InterGlobe Aviation to Replace Tata Motors PV

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cleanmax-enviro-energy-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45702:1" rel="noopener">CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN)</a> (CEESL) is looking to raise US$586m in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>



CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Ltd (8382406Z IN) (CEESL) is looking to raise US$586m in its upcoming India IPO.
CEESL is a provider of commercial and industrial renewable energy, specializing in delivering decarbonization solutions, including supplying renewable power and offering energy services and carbon credit solutions to customers.
In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.


CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Pre-IPO- The Positives- Scalable Growth with Strong Market Position

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.</li>
</ul>



Context:HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) remains in a bullish setup. Quantitative models highlight further upside potential in the near term and identify key support levels.

Trade Idea: With implied volatility near multi-year lows (12th percentile), long call strategies are favored. Suitable expiries and strikes are outlined, with an alternative structure discussed for reducing premium outlay.

Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where low implied volatility and bullish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

India

IDFC First Bank Limited provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and institutional customers. The Bank offers fixed deposits, debit cards, savings account, cash management, and other services. IDFC Bank serves its customers in India.

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IDFC First Bank Limited (IDFCFB IN)

Yes Bank (YES IN) Vs. IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Quant Divergence Opens Statistical Arb Window

Opportunity for mean reversion trade between Yes Bank and IDFC First Bank presents high potential with detailed execution framework and risk...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

The NSE Nifty Bank Index hit a record high in September 2024 but has since dropped. Option opportunities are found in resilient or volatile bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

SENSEX Index Rebalance: InterGlobe Aviation to Replace Tata Motors PV

Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO) replaces Tata Motors PV in the Sensex at the close on 19 Dec. Impact/flow is big, and positioning appears to be...

Brian Freitas

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Pre-IPO- The Positives- Scalable Growth with Strong Market Position

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Limited (CEESL) is looking to raise US$586m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the...

Akshat Shah

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

A bullish technical setup for HDFC Bank offers potential upside, with long call option strategies favored amid historically low implied volatility.

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Yes Bank (YES IN) Vs. IDFC First Bank (IDFCBK IN): Quant Divergence Opens Statistical Arb Window

​Opportunity for mean reversion trade between Yes Bank and IDFC First Bank presents high potential with detailed execution framework and risk...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

The NSE Nifty Bank Index hit a record high in September 2024 but has since dropped. Option opportunities are found in resilient or volatile bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

SENSEX Index Rebalance: InterGlobe Aviation to Replace Tata Motors PV

Interglobe Aviation (INDIGO) replaces Tata Motors PV in the Sensex at the close on 19 Dec. Impact/flow is big, and positioning appears to be...

Brian Freitas

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Pre-IPO- The Positives- Scalable Growth with Strong Market Position

CleanMax Enviro Energy Solutions Limited (CEESL) is looking to raise US$586m in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we will talk about the...

Akshat Shah

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Ready for the Rally with Tactical Low-Cost Options

A bullish technical setup for HDFC Bank offers potential upside, with long call option strategies favored amid historically low implied volatility.

Gaudenz Schneider

Opportunity for mean reversion trade between Yes Bank and IDFC First Bank presents high potential with detailed execution framework and risk...