Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Most investors probably agree that it would be foolhardy to ignore China's strategic policy-driven investment, behind which sits a wealth of resources.  Yet surprising US election results and worries about mounting debt among domestic Chinese corporations and local governments have diverted focus away from one of the largest drivers of Chinese investment.  To kick off our analysis of China's "One Belt One Road" initiative, we outline briefly in qualitative terms why the "One Belt One Road" initiative meets many Chinese strategic policy criteria and is thus likely to remain a complementary external pillar to China's ongoing domestic policy agenda.In subsequent pieces, we will focus on financial flows into OBOR, and identify areas wherein investors might seek exposure to the benefits of rising OBOR investment.

Most investors probably agree that it would be foolhardy to ignore China's strategic policy-driven investment, behind which sits a wealth of resources.  Yet surprising US election results and worries about mounting debt among domestic Chinese corporations and local governments have diverted focus away from one of the largest drivers of Chinese investment.  To kick off our analysis of China's "One Belt One Road" initiative, we outline briefly in qualitative terms why the "One Belt One Road" initiative meets many Chinese strategic policy criteria and is thus likely to remain a complementary external pillar to China's ongoing domestic policy agenda.In subsequent pieces, we will focus on financial flows into OBOR, and identify areas wherein investors might seek exposure to the benefits of rising OBOR investment.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

Macroeconomics

The latest threat assessment from China watchers has, at least partially, focussed upon the Policy Banks.  China Development Bank, China Ex-Im Bank and China Agricultural Development Bank are the three policy banks.  Each has a different task in the Chinese system and each has been recapitalised and each is growing rapidly.  Our analysis finds that these are not the true new levers of domestic policy.  Investors should pay much more attention to specific Joint Stock Banks, County, and Urban commercial banks.  This is the area of real lending growth in China over the past few years.

The latest threat assessment from China watchers has, at least partially, focussed upon the Policy Banks.  China Development Bank, China Ex-Im Bank and China Agricultural Development Bank are the three policy banks.  Each has a different task in the Chinese system and each has been recapitalised and each is growing rapidly.  Our analysis finds that these are not the true new levers of domestic policy.  Investors should pay much more attention to specific Joint Stock Banks, County, and Urban commercial banks.  This is the area of real lending growth in China over the past few years.

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

This article looks at the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the investment management community.AI will change the investment landscape in three ways. First, investors will be forced to place more value on the quality of a company’s AI assets. Second, investors themselves will rely far more on AI-based research techniques to support their investment approach. And third, investors will compete head to head for AI talent with the technology sector.

This article looks at the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the investment management community.AI will change the investment landscape in three ways. First, investors will be forced to place more value on the quality of a company’s AI assets. Second, investors themselves will rely far more on AI-based research techniques to support their investment approach. And third, investors will compete head to head for AI talent with the technology sector.

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Friday saw the release of the Monthly Chinese monetary aggregates. M2 rose 11.6% year-over-year. Although this is one the lowest percentage growth rates in the past 20 years, the money stock is now so huge that the incremental growth remains outsized relative to both GDP and (form an FX point of view ) the equivalent growth in the USA. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/016/341/original/China-M2-growth-YoY-Last-Price_chartbuilder.png?1479113085" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="16341"></figure>Over the past 12 months China's money stock has risen from RMB136tr to RMB152tr (USD22.3tr at current fx rates) a growth of RMB16tr (USD2.35tr) in an economy that…

Friday saw the release of the Monthly Chinese monetary aggregates. M2 rose 11.6% year-over-year. Although this is one the lowest percentage growth rates in the past 20 years, the money stock is now so huge that the incremental growth remains outsized relative to both GDP and (form an FX point of view ) the equivalent growth in the USA. Over the past 12 months China's money stock has risen from RMB136tr to RMB152tr (USD22.3tr at current fx rates) a growth of RMB16tr (USD2.35tr) in an economy that…

Money Matters: Chinese Monetary Aggregates Point to Accelerating RMB Weakness.

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd provides a broad range of personal and corporate commercial banking services all over China.  The Bank's businesses include deposit, loan, credit card, fund underwriting and trust, and foreign currency settlement and trading.

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Ind & Comm Bk Of China (A) (601398 CH)

Silk Roads Part I: Background

Most investors probably agree that it would be foolhardy to ignore China's strategic policy-driven investment, behind which sits a wealth of...

Naomi Fink

Chinese Policy Banks Not the Real Threat

The latest threat assessment from China watchers has, at least partially, focussed upon the Policy Banks. China Development Bank, China Ex-Im Bank...

Mark Artherton

Trump, OPEC and Uncertain Games

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought...

Emad Mostaque

What AI Means for Investors

This article looks at the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the investment management community.AI will change the investment...

CM Research

Money Matters: Chinese Monetary Aggregates Point to Accelerating RMB Weakness.

Friday saw the release of the Monthly Chinese monetary aggregates. M2 rose 11.6% year-over-year. Although this is one the lowest percentage growth...

Stewart Paterson

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