Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>April 2025 saw extreme market volatility after President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, mainly aimed at China.</li><li>Subsequent delays and complex exemptions fueled market swings, sparking fears of recession and inflation. First quarter 2025 US GDP contraction is not a trend.</li><li>Despite headline risks, deeper analysis suggests a more balanced global economy over the longer term. Both China and the US will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession</li></ul>

April 2025 saw extreme market volatility after President Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs, mainly aimed at China.Subsequent delays and complex exemptions fueled market swings, sparking fears of recession and inflation. First quarter 2025 US GDP contraction is not a trend.Despite headline risks, deeper analysis suggests a more balanced global economy over the longer term. Both China and the US will do whatever it takes to avoid a recession

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Based on the correlation with the ISM Manufacturing Index, dismissing the SLOOS as a useless macro indicator is a bit too easy.</li>
<li>Even though lending standards did not tighten as much as the previous quarter, current levels point to elevated odds of a US recession.</li>
<li>SLOOS also confirms the start of a new default cycle, revealing that high-yield bond spreads are way too low, especially when the spread widening of CMBS is taken into account.</li>
</ul>


Based on the correlation with the ISM Manufacturing Index, dismissing the SLOOS as a useless macro indicator is a bit too easy.
Even though lending standards did not tighten as much as the previous quarter, current levels point to elevated odds of a US recession.
SLOOS also confirms the start of a new default cycle, revealing that high-yield bond spreads are way too low, especially when the spread widening of CMBS is taken into account.


<ul>
<li>A further tightening of US lending standards point to negative loan growth and GDP growth.</li>
<li>In addition, the latest Federal Reserve Loan Survey suggests the high yield default rate will rise fivefold(!) compared to last year.</li>
<li>Yet, high yield bond spreads remain in la-la land, reflecting zero odds of a US recession or tighter lending standards.</li>
</ul>


A further tightening of US lending standards point to negative loan growth and GDP growth.
In addition, the latest Federal Reserve Loan Survey suggests the high yield default rate will rise fivefold(!) compared to last year.
Yet, high yield bond spreads remain in la-la land, reflecting zero odds of a US recession or tighter lending standards.


Fed Lending Survey: ‘Stay Away from High Yield Bonds!’

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>2023 will prove far better for most investors. Although the major World stock and bond indexes will range sideways, several national markets and sectors will perform strongly</li>
<li>Behind our optimism is an expansion the all-important Global Liquidity cycle from last October. This is driven by the People’s Bank of China and paced by the US Federal Reserve</li>
<li>World fixed income markets are exhibiting a ‘normal’, not the distorted cycle many claim. Coming months should see skidding bond market volatility and the beginning of yield curve steepening</li>
</ul>


2023 will prove far better for most investors. Although the major World stock and bond indexes will range sideways, several national markets and sectors will perform strongly
Behind our optimism is an expansion the all-important Global Liquidity cycle from last October. This is driven by the People’s Bank of China and paced by the US Federal Reserve
World fixed income markets are exhibiting a ‘normal’, not the distorted cycle many claim. Coming months should see skidding bond market volatility and the beginning of yield curve steepening


The Most Important Question For Equity Investors: What to Expect in Global Fixed Income in 2023?

<ul>
<li>China is injecting liquidity into the markets, but ironically, with investors sick and tired of negative returns, much of this liquidity is finding its way everywhere except China.</li>
<li>The downturn in commercial real estate is becoming a global phenomenon. A growing number of companies is grappling with bad real estate loans, leading to a sharp increase in provisions.</li>
<li>The most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) reveals yet another trend that the recession is already behind us.</li>
</ul>


China is injecting liquidity into the markets, but ironically, with investors sick and tired of negative returns, much of this liquidity is finding its way everywhere except China.
The downturn in commercial real estate is becoming a global phenomenon. A growing number of companies is grappling with bad real estate loans, leading to a sharp increase in provisions.
The most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) reveals yet another trend that the recession is already behind us.


The Weekly Market Monitor – How China Is Pushing Stocks Higher Except at Home

United States

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. dollar-denominated, high yield corporate bonds.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corpo (HYG US)

Assessing Trump’s Shock and Awe Move in Apr 2025

This report presents a contrarian view to the doom and gloom view of the global economy as trade tensions escalate between the US and China

Kok Peng Chan

Do Not SNOOZE the SLOOS

Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: high odds of a recession, high odds of rising defaults, high odds of higher bond spreads. Stay out of High...

Jeroen Blokland

Fed Lending Survey: ‘Stay Away from High Yield Bonds!’

Fed Lending Survey and ISM Manufacturing Index imply Less/Negative US GDP Growth, rising Defaults, and Higher Credit Spreads!

Jeroen Blokland

The Most Important Question For Equity Investors: What to Expect in Global Fixed Income in 2023?

World fixed income markets give their cue to World stocks. Rising Global Liquidity will support bonds in 2023. This augurs well for certain...

Michael J. Howell

The Weekly Market Monitor – How China Is Pushing Stocks Higher Except at Home

Is this the start of another Chinese liquidity boom? Meanwhile, commercial real estate loan provisions are spreading across the globe, which is why...

Jeroen Blokland

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)