EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.</li><li>Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. </li></ul>

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. 

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul><li>
Infighting spills out in the open: President Xi Jinping's warning against “cabals and cliques” in the Communist Party, and his demand that “careerists and conspirators” be eliminated shows the rising tensions within the leadership as his faction steps up its campaign against the Communist Youth League (CYL) faction of Premier Li and former party leader Hu Jintao. Xi insisted that his anti-corruption drive would not wind down, vowing instead to step it up. Some will read this as a riposte to Li’s…</li></ul>


Infighting spills out in the open: President Xi Jinping's warning against “cabals and cliques” in the Communist Party, and his demand that “careerists and conspirators” be eliminated shows the rising tensions within the leadership as his faction steps up its campaign against the Communist Youth League (CYL) faction of Premier Li and former party leader Hu Jintao. Xi insisted that his anti-corruption drive would not wind down, vowing instead to step it up. Some will read this as a riposte to Li’s…

China: Leadership Infighting Raises Risks

Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

<ul>
<li>China is working to pre-empt the forthcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which is likely to weaken the basis of China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea.</li>
<li>First, it is acting to divide ASEAN so that there is no united regional front against it. China persuaded the weakest members of ASEAN - Brunei, Cambodia and Laos - to agree that the territorial disputes in the South China Sea were “not an issue between China and ASEAN as a whole”.</li>
<li>Second, China continues to create…</li>
</ul>


China is working to pre-empt the forthcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which is likely to weaken the basis of China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea.
First, it is acting to divide ASEAN so that there is no united regional front against it. China persuaded the weakest members of ASEAN - Brunei, Cambodia and Laos - to agree that the territorial disputes in the South China Sea were “not an issue between China and ASEAN as a whole”.
Second, China continues to create…


This note analysing the drivers for selected ASEAN economies is Part 3 of three parts on Asian growth. It focuses on Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam. (Singapore is in Part 2)Table 3: Selected ASEAN economies – Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>Variable</td>
<td>Thailand</td>
<td>Malaysia</td>
<td>Philippines</td>
<td>Vietnam</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Drags from 2015 negatives
</td>
<td>
Dissipating<ul><li>Farm incomes contracting but at a slower pace</li></ul>
</td>
<td>
Reduced:
<ul>
<li>Commodity prices have bottomed out; CPO prices rebounding</li>
<li>Downside from fiscal reforms such as the…</li>
</ul>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

This note analysing the drivers for selected ASEAN economies is Part 3 of three parts on Asian growth. It focuses on Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam. (Singapore is in Part 2)Table 3: Selected ASEAN economies – Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam

Variable
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam



Drags from 2015 negatives


DissipatingFarm incomes contracting but at a slower pace


Reduced:

Commodity prices have bottomed out; CPO prices rebounding
Downside from fiscal reforms such as the…





China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At...

Emad Mostaque

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export...

Manu Bhaskaran

China: Leadership Infighting Raises Risks

Infighting spills out in the open: President Xi Jinping's warning against “cabals and cliques” in the Communist Party, and his demand that...

Jason Tan

China Attempts to Divide ASEAN

China is working to pre-empt the forthcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which is likely to weaken the basis of China’s claims to...

Asees Bajaj

Drivers of Asian Growth - Part 3

This note analysing the drivers for selected ASEAN economies is Part 3 of three parts on Asian growth. It focuses on Thailand, Malaysia,...

Jason Tan