Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Macroeconomics

Since the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan in August, the US dollar has appreciated by over 6% against the currency, with the PBOC undertaking a further devaluation most recently on January 6th (see chart).<img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/899/original/WhatUMissed-CNYshortTerm.jpg?1452376886" class="img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4899"> The adverse impact the devaluation has had on global financial markets reflects the signalling effect; in much the same way that a cut to dividends signals to investors that the insiders are concerned about a company’s future growth prospects, market participants have inferred from the…

Since the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan in August, the US dollar has appreciated by over 6% against the currency, with the PBOC undertaking a further devaluation most recently on January 6th (see chart). The adverse impact the devaluation has had on global financial markets reflects the signalling effect; in much the same way that a cut to dividends signals to investors that the insiders are concerned about a company’s future growth prospects, market participants have inferred from the…

Devaluation Yes, but After Years of Strong Appreciation

Hao Wang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Thoughts on stock markets:</h2>After this China stock markets crash, this is my view on the China stock markets: the market will rebound in the very short term due to CSRC (who already announced to stop circuit breaker on Friday), PBoC and other regulator's intervention, but this will likely also attract continuous selling from investors.The bottom line here is that the government's top priority is stability and other political agenda, not necessarily healthy stock markets, on the other hand…

Thoughts on stock markets:After this China stock markets crash, this is my view on the China stock markets: the market will rebound in the very short term due to CSRC (who already announced to stop circuit breaker on Friday), PBoC and other regulator's intervention, but this will likely also attract continuous selling from investors.The bottom line here is that the government's top priority is stability and other political agenda, not necessarily healthy stock markets, on the other hand…

What You Need to Know About China Stock Markets

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

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Official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) edged up to 49.7 in Dec 15 after hitting a three-year low of 49.6 in November. Encouragingly, the sub-indices for production rose as did new orders. However, the employment sub-index fell slightly.</li>
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Official non-manufacturing PMI rose to its highest since August 2014 at 54.4 with new orders expanding vigorously, a good portent for future activity. Employment also gained traction.</li>
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China Caixin PMI contracted to 48.2 in Dec 15, down from 48.6 in…</li>
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Official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) edged up to 49.7 in Dec 15 after hitting a three-year low of 49.6 in November. Encouragingly, the sub-indices for production rose as did new orders. However, the employment sub-index fell slightly.

Official non-manufacturing PMI rose to its highest since August 2014 at 54.4 with new orders expanding vigorously, a good portent for future activity. Employment also gained traction.

China Caixin PMI contracted to 48.2 in Dec 15, down from 48.6 in…


China: Stronger Services Only Partly Offsetting Weak Manufacturing - Policy Action Likely

Chinese growth may surprise on the upside in early 2016 but rebound will not be sustained<ul><li>Stimulus measures put in place over the course of 2015 are producing results as seen in the recovery in real estate prices and activity as well as in the rise in new orders in the PMI data. Growth in early 2016 could well surprise positively as a result. The question is whether that bounce will be sustainable.</li></ul><ul><li>However, the accumulating evidence of rising financial stresses, sharp falls in industrial sector…</li></ul>

Chinese growth may surprise on the upside in early 2016 but rebound will not be sustainedStimulus measures put in place over the course of 2015 are producing results as seen in the recovery in real estate prices and activity as well as in the rise in new orders in the PMI data. Growth in early 2016 could well surprise positively as a result. The question is whether that bounce will be sustainable.However, the accumulating evidence of rising financial stresses, sharp falls in industrial sector…

2016 Surprises: What Are the Key Turning Points Within Asia?

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

After an intriguing 2015 when the economy surprised to the downside by the stock market performed "relatively" well, China is amongst our main concerns for 2016 as the signs pointing to a "sudden stop" continue to grow.

After an intriguing 2015 when the economy surprised to the downside by the stock market performed "relatively" well, China is amongst our main concerns for 2016 as the signs pointing to a "sudden stop" continue to grow.

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

Devaluation Yes, but After Years of Strong Appreciation

Since the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan in August, the US dollar has appreciated by over 6% against the currency, with the PBOC undertaking a...

Sam Ferraro

What You Need to Know About China Stock Markets

Thoughts on stock markets:After this China stock markets crash, this is my view on the China stock markets: the market will rebound in the very...

Hao Wang, CFA

China: Stronger Services Only Partly Offsetting Weak Manufacturing - Policy Action Likely

Official manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) edged up to 49.7 in Dec 15 after hitting a three-year low of 49.6 in...

Manu Bhaskaran

2016 Surprises: What Are the Key Turning Points Within Asia?

Chinese growth may surprise on the upside in early 2016 but rebound will not be sustainedStimulus measures put in place over the course of 2015 are...

Manu Bhaskaran

A "Sudden Stop" For China in 2016?

After an intriguing 2015 when the economy surprised to the downside by the stock market performed "relatively" well, China is amongst our main...

John-Paul Smith