Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Chinese economic indicators pointed to a lacklustre domestic economy that is not showing any signs of an uptick, save for stronger consumption spending.</li><li>External pressures are growing for China . Furthermore, despite tepid domestic conditions, Chinese firms are extending their borrowing streak; cross-border claims continue to climb.</li><li>While the Yuan has hovered around a 4-year low, sparking speculation of a managed depreciation to spur growth, we do not think that a depreciation would be engineered by the government. Read more to see why.&nbsp;</li></ul>

Chinese economic indicators pointed to a lacklustre domestic economy that is not showing any signs of an uptick, save for stronger consumption spending.External pressures are growing for China . Furthermore, despite tepid domestic conditions, Chinese firms are extending their borrowing streak; cross-border claims continue to climb.While the Yuan has hovered around a 4-year low, sparking speculation of a managed depreciation to spur growth, we do not think that a depreciation would be engineered by the government. Read more to see why.&nbsp;

China: CNY Depreciation Fears Heighten, No Easy Policy Options

China: Economic decline evident from negative data releases<ul>
<li>
Industrial profits fell by 4.6% y/y in Oct 15, down from the 0.1% y/y decline in Sep 15.</li>
<li>
MNI Consumer Sentiment rose to 113.1 in Nov 15 (109.7 in Oct 15).</li>
<li>
MNI Business Sentiment Index fell to 49.9 in Nov 15, a 5-month low.</li>
<li>
Minxin manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs declined in Nov 15 to 42.4 and 42.9 in Sep 15 after two months of increases.</li>
<li>
Baidu SME Index for small- and medium-sized enterprises dropped to 98.2 in Nov 15 from 98.4…</li>
</ul>

China: Economic decline evident from negative data releases

Industrial profits fell by 4.6% y/y in Oct 15, down from the 0.1% y/y decline in Sep 15.

MNI Consumer Sentiment rose to 113.1 in Nov 15 (109.7 in Oct 15).

MNI Business Sentiment Index fell to 49.9 in Nov 15, a 5-month low.

Minxin manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs declined in Nov 15 to 42.4 and 42.9 in Sep 15 after two months of increases.

Baidu SME Index for small- and medium-sized enterprises dropped to 98.2 in Nov 15 from 98.4…


Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

<ul>
<li>
Retail sales rose by 11.0% y/y in Oct 15, up from 10.9% y/y in Sep 15.</li>
<li>
Activity indicators losing momentum: Fixed asset investment growth eased to 10.2% y/y in Oct 15, from 10.3% y/y in Sep 15. Industrial production grew 5.6% y/y in Oct 15, down from 5.7% y/y in Sep 15, the weakest rate since the aftermath of the global crisis.</li>
<li>
Money supply expanding but pockets of weakness: M2 money supply grew by 13.5% y/y in Oct 15 – a 13-month high, up from 13.1% y/y, in Sep 15. However, new loans of…</li>
</ul>



Retail sales rose by 11.0% y/y in Oct 15, up from 10.9% y/y in Sep 15.

Activity indicators losing momentum: Fixed asset investment growth eased to 10.2% y/y in Oct 15, from 10.3% y/y in Sep 15. Industrial production grew 5.6% y/y in Oct 15, down from 5.7% y/y in Sep 15, the weakest rate since the aftermath of the global crisis.

Money supply expanding but pockets of weakness: M2 money supply grew by 13.5% y/y in Oct 15 – a 13-month high, up from 13.1% y/y, in Sep 15. However, new loans of…


China: Economic Slowdown Cushioned by Domestic Consumption

<ul><li>The Chinese economy continues on its abysmal path: Trade flows and inflationary pressures are weak even as PMIs show some signs of tentative stabilisation. This could herald the opening of stimulus taps by the central government in a bid to shore up growth.</li><li>Contrary to news reports, the anti-corruption campaign initiated by President Xi Jinping to catch "tigers and flies" show no sign of abating - the focus has now turned to SOEs. Four notable figures&nbsp;have been arrested for investigation in the past week. This concerted anti-graft crackdown will continue to exact a&nbsp;toll on economic activity.</li><li>Finally, looking longer-term, in its recently released 13th Five-Year Plan, the powers-that-be in China have determined the GDP target for 2016-2020 to be 6.5% annually. Innovation will be a key tenet in economic growth going forward. There will also be greater competition in previously sheltered industries while the internationalisation of the Chinese Yuan will proceed smoothly with greater liberalisation and convertibility.</li></ul>

The Chinese economy continues on its abysmal path: Trade flows and inflationary pressures are weak even as PMIs show some signs of tentative stabilisation. This could herald the opening of stimulus taps by the central government in a bid to shore up growth.Contrary to news reports, the anti-corruption campaign initiated by President Xi Jinping to catch "tigers and flies" show no sign of abating - the focus has now turned to SOEs. Four notable figures&nbsp;have been arrested for investigation in the past week. This concerted anti-graft crackdown will continue to exact a&nbsp;toll on economic activity.Finally, looking longer-term, in its recently released 13th Five-Year Plan, the powers-that-be in China have determined the GDP target for 2016-2020 to be 6.5% annually. Innovation will be a key tenet in economic growth going forward. There will also be greater competition in previously sheltered industries while the internationalisation of the Chinese Yuan will proceed smoothly with greater liberalisation and convertibility.

China in focus: Aspects of the Middle Kingdom

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

The US labour data were strong enough along with faster wage growth to generate discussion of rate hikes beyond the now very probable December hike.&nbsp; This has pushed two-year US rates to a new cyclical high, widening the USD yield advantage in particular against the EUR and JPY to new cyclical wides.&nbsp; The US economy is showing resilience to weaker emerging markets and a weaker energy sector and should continue to support the USD into next year.&nbsp; The Chinese trade data continues to show pressures on external and internal demand.&nbsp; Iron ore import volume was weaker and combined with a steady decline in Chinese steel prices and production, point to a weaker outlook for the AUD.&nbsp; The RBA has downgraded its view on China in recent months acknowledging that heavy industrial sectors may be weaker than the official industrial production data suggest, and worrying that Chinese government efforts to support fixed asset investment in the last year have failed to arrest the decline.&nbsp; The Australian employment and Chinese activity data will be key for near term direction in the AUD.

The US labour data were strong enough along with faster wage growth to generate discussion of rate hikes beyond the now very probable December hike.&nbsp; This has pushed two-year US rates to a new cyclical high, widening the USD yield advantage in particular against the EUR and JPY to new cyclical wides.&nbsp; The US economy is showing resilience to weaker emerging markets and a weaker energy sector and should continue to support the USD into next year.&nbsp; The Chinese trade data continues to show pressures on external and internal demand.&nbsp; Iron ore import volume was weaker and combined with a steady decline in Chinese steel prices and production, point to a weaker outlook for the AUD.&nbsp; The RBA has downgraded its view on China in recent months acknowledging that heavy industrial sectors may be weaker than the official industrial production data suggest, and worrying that Chinese government efforts to support fixed asset investment in the last year have failed to arrest the decline.&nbsp; The Australian employment and Chinese activity data will be key for near term direction in the AUD.

AmpGFX - RBA more nervous over China outlook

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

China: CNY Depreciation Fears Heighten, No Easy Policy Options

Chinese economic indicators pointed to a lacklustre domestic economy that is not showing any signs of an uptick, save for stronger consumption...

Manu Bhaskaran

Cross-Straits Warning Signs

China: Economic decline evident from negative data releases Industrial profits fell by 4.6% y/y in Oct 15, down from the 0.1% y/y decline in Sep...

Manu Bhaskaran

China: Economic Slowdown Cushioned by Domestic Consumption

Retail sales rose by 11.0% y/y in Oct 15, up from 10.9% y/y in Sep 15. Activity indicators losing momentum: Fixed asset investment growth eased...

Jason Tan

China in focus: Aspects of the Middle Kingdom

The Chinese economy continues on its abysmal path: Trade flows and inflationary pressures are weak even as PMIs show some signs of tentative...

Jason Tan

AmpGFX - RBA more nervous over China outlook

The US labour data were strong enough along with faster wage growth to generate discussion of rate hikes beyond the now very probable December...

Greg Gibbs