Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

Unexpected momentum in tax amnestyTaxpayers have declared IDR2,963tr (74% of the IDR4,000tr target), with the government receiving IDR93.5tr in tax revenues (target of IDR165tr). However, repatriations of assets from offshore locations were lacklustre, reaching only IDR142.5tr or 14% of the IDR1000tr target.The government’s success in persuading high-profile tycoons to participate in the amnesty has helped, with dozens of business leaders in the Indonesian Chambers of Commerce and Industry…

Unexpected momentum in tax amnestyTaxpayers have declared IDR2,963tr (74% of the IDR4,000tr target), with the government receiving IDR93.5tr in tax revenues (target of IDR165tr). However, repatriations of assets from offshore locations were lacklustre, reaching only IDR142.5tr or 14% of the IDR1000tr target.The government’s success in persuading high-profile tycoons to participate in the amnesty has helped, with dozens of business leaders in the Indonesian Chambers of Commerce and Industry…

Indonesia's Tax Amnesty Success Reflects More Capable Governance

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow families of victims of terror attacks on US soil to sue any member of foreign governments (specifically the Saudi government) for support of these acts.The stripping of sovereign immunity will have profound implications for global geopolitics and the increasingly strained relationship of Gulf states and their traditional Western allies, particularly at a time when the USA is pivoting away from the Middle East towards the perceived increasing threat in Asia.

<ul><li>Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.</li><li>World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.</li><li>Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.</li></ul>

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade outlook, the Fed could intensify the pace of rate hikes.World trade remains in the doldrums but there are very early signs that US import demand is picking up and forward-looking indicators reflect a nascent uptick in the works.Our take is that the world economy is finally coming out of a dark period of successive major shocks. What we are probably seeing is the natural healing process that occurs in economies as the worst effects of these shocks wears off. This is forming a base for a more resilient recovery around the world – so long as there are no more new shocks.

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

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Oil prices – lower for longer: The International Energy Agency (IEA) now sees the oil glut persisting into late-2017 as demand growth falls while supply remains resilient. Consumption growth slumped to a two-year low in 3Q16; the IEA has trimmed projected global oil demand growth by half to just 200,000 barrels a day in 2017.</li>
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Record output from OPEC’s Gulf members is compounding the glut. Saudi Arabia overtook the US as the world’s largest oil producer in Aug 16 while Libya and Nigeria are…</li>
</ul>



Oil prices – lower for longer: The International Energy Agency (IEA) now sees the oil glut persisting into late-2017 as demand growth falls while supply remains resilient. Consumption growth slumped to a two-year low in 3Q16; the IEA has trimmed projected global oil demand growth by half to just 200,000 barrels a day in 2017.

Record output from OPEC’s Gulf members is compounding the glut. Saudi Arabia overtook the US as the world’s largest oil producer in Aug 16 while Libya and Nigeria are…


Asia: Implications of US Federal Reserve’s actions for Asian economies<ul><li>The US Fed is poised to raise interest rates in due course, as the domestic economy gathers steam and accelerates smartly. The spotlight is now on the trajectory of the looming rate hike cycle which is likely to be steeper than consensus and possibly catch financial markets off guard.</li><li>Using the Taylor Rule as a guide, Asian monetary policy is likely to remain broadly accommodative even though further cuts are unlikely - except in exceptional circumstances – in light of the looming rate hike by the Fed which will potentially cause higher volatility and depreciation among the currencies with weaker fundamentals.</li><li>However, the impending resumption of the rate lift-off is an affirmation of manifest strength in the US economy. The capex cycle should rise accordingly and provide a robust boost to the exports of Asian economies including Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia.</li></ul>

Asia: Implications of US Federal Reserve’s actions for Asian economiesThe US Fed is poised to raise interest rates in due course, as the domestic economy gathers steam and accelerates smartly. The spotlight is now on the trajectory of the looming rate hike cycle which is likely to be steeper than consensus and possibly catch financial markets off guard.Using the Taylor Rule as a guide, Asian monetary policy is likely to remain broadly accommodative even though further cuts are unlikely - except in exceptional circumstances – in light of the looming rate hike by the Fed which will potentially cause higher volatility and depreciation among the currencies with weaker fundamentals.However, the impending resumption of the rate lift-off is an affirmation of manifest strength in the US economy. The capex cycle should rise accordingly and provide a robust boost to the exports of Asian economies including Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia.

Indonesia

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)

Indonesia's Tax Amnesty Success Reflects More Capable Governance

Unexpected momentum in tax amnestyTaxpayers have declared IDR2,963tr (74% of the IDR4,000tr target), with the government receiving IDR93.5tr in tax...

Manu Bhaskaran

JASTA Will Push Saudi East

Senate and Congress have overridden President Obama's veto on the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism (JASTA) legislation, designed to allow...

Emad Mostaque

Looking Beyond the Fed: Is Demand for Asian Exports Picking Up?

Asian economies are more likely to be resilient to the Fed’s rate increases if global demand is growing. Indeed, in light of a brighter trade...

Manu Bhaskaran

Turning Point on Oil Impact on Asia

Oil prices – lower for longer: The International Energy Agency (IEA) now sees the oil glut persisting into late-2017 as demand growth falls while...

Jason Tan

How Will US Monetary Policy Affect Asia?

Asia: Implications of US Federal Reserve’s actions for Asian economies The US Fed is poised to raise interest rates in due course, as the domestic...

Manu Bhaskaran