Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The nation’s second largest party, Golkar, concluded its Congress and elected former Speaker of Parliament Setya Novanto as the new Chairman. While activists have expressed concerns over corruption allegations against Setya, his election and the reconciliation among warring factions that ensued bode well.</li></ul>Implications: President Jokowi strengthened <ul><li>The key positive for Indonesia is that Setya is close to Luhut Panjaitan, President Jokowi's co-ordinating minister for political and security…</li></ul>

The nation’s second largest party, Golkar, concluded its Congress and elected former Speaker of Parliament Setya Novanto as the new Chairman. While activists have expressed concerns over corruption allegations against Setya, his election and the reconciliation among warring factions that ensued bode well.Implications: President Jokowi strengthened The key positive for Indonesia is that Setya is close to Luhut Panjaitan, President Jokowi's co-ordinating minister for political and security…

Indonesia: President Jokowi Stronger than Ever

Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

<ul><li>GDP grew 4.92% y/y in 1Q16, down from 5.04% y/y growth in 4Q15.</li><li>Forward looking indicators do not spell a bright outlook for the economy: there are signs of moderation in domestic demand, and this will drag down manufacturing.</li><li>Revenue collection is shrinking and thus fiscal policy is constrained.</li><li>Bank Indonesia is expected to add more monetary stimulus, but this alone may not be enough to drive growth above 5.0% in 2016.</li></ul>

GDP grew 4.92% y/y in 1Q16, down from 5.04% y/y growth in 4Q15.Forward looking indicators do not spell a bright outlook for the economy: there are signs of moderation in domestic demand, and this will drag down manufacturing.Revenue collection is shrinking and thus fiscal policy is constrained.Bank Indonesia is expected to add more monetary stimulus, but this alone may not be enough to drive growth above 5.0% in 2016.

Indonesia: Limited Policy Options to Boost Growth

<ul><li>Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.</li><li>Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. </li></ul>

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export growth is dimming as Vietnam holds up well, testament to its competitiveness.Purchasing manager surveys had more negatives than positives. Inflation rates have remained broadly low suggesting room for monetary easing, but domestic conditions limit the scope of monetary policy for some countries in the region. 

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

<ul>
<li>Aiming to improve Indonesia’s rank in the World Bank’s Doing Business analysis to 40 from 109 in 2016, the government released the 12th tranche of its economic policy packages. This package focused on improving business start-up processes by, for example, lowering the number of procedures from 12 to 7, processing time from 47 to 10 days and costs from IDR6.8-7.8mn to IDR2.7mn.</li>
<li>Procedures will also be eased for obtaining building permits, registering property, getting electricity and applying for…</li>
</ul>


Aiming to improve Indonesia’s rank in the World Bank’s Doing Business analysis to 40 from 109 in 2016, the government released the 12th tranche of its economic policy packages. This package focused on improving business start-up processes by, for example, lowering the number of procedures from 12 to 7, processing time from 47 to 10 days and costs from IDR6.8-7.8mn to IDR2.7mn.
Procedures will also be eased for obtaining building permits, registering property, getting electricity and applying for…


Indonesia's 12th Economic Policy: Deregulation Has Its Limits

<ul>
<li>China is working to pre-empt the forthcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which is likely to weaken the basis of China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea.</li>
<li>First, it is acting to divide ASEAN so that there is no united regional front against it. China persuaded the weakest members of ASEAN - Brunei, Cambodia and Laos - to agree that the territorial disputes in the South China Sea were “not an issue between China and ASEAN as a whole”.</li>
<li>Second, China continues to create…</li>
</ul>


China is working to pre-empt the forthcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which is likely to weaken the basis of China’s claims to almost the entire South China Sea.
First, it is acting to divide ASEAN so that there is no united regional front against it. China persuaded the weakest members of ASEAN - Brunei, Cambodia and Laos - to agree that the territorial disputes in the South China Sea were “not an issue between China and ASEAN as a whole”.
Second, China continues to create…


Indonesia

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index.

iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO US)

Indonesia: President Jokowi Stronger than Ever

The nation’s second largest party, Golkar, concluded its Congress and elected former Speaker of Parliament Setya Novanto as the new Chairman. While...

Manu Bhaskaran

Indonesia: Limited Policy Options to Boost Growth

GDP grew 4.92% y/y in 1Q16, down from 5.04% y/y growth in 4Q15. Forward looking indicators do not spell a bright outlook for the economy: there...

Asees Bajaj

Asian Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Export growth remains lacklustre and mostly contractionary. The only bright spots for exports are Malaysia and Vietnam, but even Malaysia’s export...

Manu Bhaskaran

Indonesia's 12th Economic Policy: Deregulation Has Its Limits

Aiming to improve Indonesia’s rank in the World Bank’s Doing Business analysis to 40 from 109 in 2016, the government released the 12th tranche of...

Manu Bhaskaran

China Attempts to Divide ASEAN

China is working to pre-empt the forthcoming ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which is likely to weaken the basis of China’s claims to...

Asees Bajaj