Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Event-Driven

iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF / Event-Driven

<ul><li>The Fed's surprising dovishness led to confusion in the markets overnight</li><li>The Fed has moved the goalposts (again) on factors that would drive it to raise rates, its getting downright ludicrous</li><li>There is now a clear risk that the Fed will not move on rates in 2015 &amp; 2016 is an election year where we have historically never had a fed hike</li><li>Fed inaction brings on more pressure to is now on the ECB and BoJ</li></ul>

The Fed's surprising dovishness led to confusion in the markets overnightThe Fed has moved the goalposts (again) on factors that would drive it to raise rates, its getting downright ludicrousThere is now a clear risk that the Fed will not move on rates in 2015 &amp; 2016 is an election year where we have historically never had a fed hikeFed inaction brings on more pressure to is now on the ECB and BoJ

<ul><li>S&amp;P futures are falling, with a classic pennant forming on the e-minis</li><li>Language will be key, regardless of whether the Fed hikes rates</li><li>Emerging markets on the way down - notably Turkey, Malaysia and Russia</li></ul>

S&amp;P futures are falling, with a classic pennant forming on the e-minisLanguage will be key, regardless of whether the Fed hikes ratesEmerging markets on the way down - notably Turkey, Malaysia and Russia

The Tactician: Dazed and confused markets

<ul><li>With US equities holding up, it is three days to the first hike in close to a decade</li><li>Even more important will be the language accompanying the hike</li><li>The Fed implied hike is at 28%, putting KVP squarely in the minority &ndash; what&rsquo;s new?</li><li>We take a quick look at potential tactical moves given a hike or no-hike scenario&nbsp;</li><li>The heat is up on emerging markets, given the downgrade of Brazil to junk status</li><li>Things need to get much worse before they get better for EMs &ndash; who's next?</li></ul>

With US equities holding up, it is three days to the first hike in close to a decadeEven more important will be the language accompanying the hikeThe Fed implied hike is at 28%, putting KVP squarely in the minority &ndash; what&rsquo;s new?We take a quick look at potential tactical moves given a hike or no-hike scenario&nbsp;The heat is up on emerging markets, given the downgrade of Brazil to junk statusThings need to get much worse before they get better for EMs &ndash; who's next?

The Macro Take: 3...2...1... Lift-Off from the Fed!

<ul><li>The Fed doves can coo all they want, but the trend is 221,000 on NFPs</li><li>This is trend over past three months, with jobless down to 5.1% (best in 7 years)</li><li>With 10 days to go, the Fed will move if the markets can stay above 1,800 </li><li>It needs to keep above that until September 16 (-6% move from Fri&rsquo;s 1,921 close)</li><li>Should be an action-packed week with China back in and central bank meetings</li><li>Meetings happening in New Zealand, Canada, Russia, Malaysia, UK, South Korea</li></ul>

The Fed doves can coo all they want, but the trend is 221,000 on NFPsThis is trend over past three months, with jobless down to 5.1% (best in 7 years)With 10 days to go, the Fed will move if the markets can stay above 1,800 It needs to keep above that until September 16 (-6% move from Fri&rsquo;s 1,921 close)Should be an action-packed week with China back in and central bank meetingsMeetings happening in New Zealand, Canada, Russia, Malaysia, UK, South Korea

The Macro Take: Ten days to Fed lift off but the market must hold

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Prime Minister has reshuffled his cabinet in an attempt to surround himself with loyalists.&nbsp;</li><li>Leaked videos and suspicious reports continue to flood the media adding to political uncertainty and the ongoing power struggle. What's in it for Malaysia?</li></ul>

The Prime Minister has reshuffled his cabinet in an attempt to surround himself with loyalists.&nbsp;Leaked videos and suspicious reports continue to flood the media adding to political uncertainty and the ongoing power struggle. What's in it for Malaysia?

United States

iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective seeks to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Malaysian market, as measured by the MSCI  Malaysia Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a  "portfolio sampling" technique.

iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM US)

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