Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

Thailand’s economy continued on its upswing, with private consumption and investment levels keeping at robust levels while fiscal expenditure continued to rev up. Tourism remained a key pillar of economic growth even as exports remained tepid amid the weak global context. The Bank of Thailand kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.5% for the sixth straight meeting and indicated that government spending should revive flagging growth rates in the year ahead, even as monetary policy remains…

Thailand’s economy continued on its upswing, with private consumption and investment levels keeping at robust levels while fiscal expenditure continued to rev up. Tourism remained a key pillar of economic growth even as exports remained tepid amid the weak global context. The Bank of Thailand kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.5% for the sixth straight meeting and indicated that government spending should revive flagging growth rates in the year ahead, even as monetary policy remains…

Constitution Conundrum as the Economy Recovers

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China / Technical Analysis

We kicked off 2016 adding to shorts on January 4th and started covering and putting on risk January 14 and in a bigger way on the 18th. We are now looking to exit this risk-on trade this week prior to the February 5th and 8th cycle time line and initiate a fresh risk off short trade that is in line with the major down trend.

We kicked off 2016 adding to shorts on January 4th and started covering and putting on risk January 14 and in a bigger way on the 18th. We are now looking to exit this risk-on trade this week prior to the February 5th and 8th cycle time line and initiate a fresh risk off short trade that is in line with the major down trend.

<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Thailand looks set for a robust upswing after having bottomed in late-2015 (in line with the Centennial Asia Advisors view in the 9 November and 7 December CAA Weeklies). Indeed, after a troubled 2014 wracked by political gyrations and a lacklustre 2015 due to faltering exports, Thailand should surprise positively in 2016.Domestic engines are revving up smartlySupportive measures aimed at stimulating the domestic economy have started to pay off.Table 1: Selected economic indicators<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>% y/y</td>
<td>Mar 15</td>
<td>Apr…</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

Thailand looks set for a robust upswing after having bottomed in late-2015 (in line with the Centennial Asia Advisors view in the 9 November and 7 December CAA Weeklies). Indeed, after a troubled 2014 wracked by political gyrations and a lacklustre 2015 due to faltering exports, Thailand should surprise positively in 2016.Domestic engines are revving up smartlySupportive measures aimed at stimulating the domestic economy have started to pay off.Table 1: Selected economic indicators

% y/y
Mar 15
Apr…



Thailand: Clearer Signs of a Turnaround - Upside Surprise Likely

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

<ul><li>The context of the Fed rate decision - a likely upside surprise in G3 economic growth - suggests upside to ASEAN growth prospects but downsides from financial risks.</li><li>The Fed rate move is only one of many moving parts driving ASEAN prospects in 2016 - and may not be the most important. See our table summary&nbsp;of a rate hike impact on ASEAN.</li></ul>

The context of the Fed rate decision - a likely upside surprise in G3 economic growth - suggests upside to ASEAN growth prospects but downsides from financial risks.The Fed rate move is only one of many moving parts driving ASEAN prospects in 2016 - and may not be the most important. See our table summary&nbsp;of a rate hike impact on ASEAN.

Thailand

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the performance of the MSCI Thailand IMI 25/50 Index.

iShares MSCI Thailand (THD US)

Constitution Conundrum as the Economy Recovers

Thailand’s economy continued on its upswing, with private consumption and investment levels keeping at robust levels while fiscal expenditure...

Jason Tan

Risk on Traction

We kicked off 2016 adding to shorts on January 4th and started covering and putting on risk January 14 and in a bigger way on the 18th. We are now...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder

Thailand: Clearer Signs of a Turnaround - Upside Surprise Likely

Thailand looks set for a robust upswing after having bottomed in late-2015 (in line with the Centennial Asia Advisors view in the 9 November and 7...

Jason Tan

Impact of Fed Rate Hike on ASEAN

The context of the Fed rate decision - a likely upside surprise in G3 economic growth - suggests upside to ASEAN growth prospects but downsides...

Manu Bhaskaran