Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Asia headquartered banks fared well despite the global tantrum without taper in the Treasury markets. Asia headquartered bond prices fell by less than their benchmark Treasury market notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Almost all bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Moderate duration, lower risk, bonds continued to outperform, although there were pockets of outperformance in China-headquartered Additional Tier 1 bonds.Bonds in the belly of the curve, that is those maturing or callable in five-years, outperformed longer dated notes. Moderate duration bonds led as investors lost faith in an inflation free economic recovery which would cap market rate rises. This is the opposite of last weeks’ performance, wherein even longer-duration note outperformed. That seemed odd given policymakers repeated statements that they would let the US economy run hot at the risk of stoking inflation. The rapid sell-off in US Treasuries during the week is evidence of market jitters regarding eventual inflation expectations.The pressure on U.S. Treasuries is largely in-line with what we have been cautioning on since the Senate run-off results in Georgia last month. Friday’s correction at the long end may be tested again.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Given the rate of change over the last two weeks, things are moving fast. We identify potential opportunities within. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank of India (SBIN IN)</a> represents one credit curve where better opportunities exist in shorter duration bonds, however, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a> may offer even better values, as we note within.Market Outlook: This week’s Treasury market tantrum was not induced by Fed tapering, but it is a reminder of what it may look like when the Fed does dial back its asset purchases. Combined with the strength of the risk-on moves, this makes us uneasy. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discover as the market is simply sentiment driven. Credit value should remain driven by larger market forces. However, we may be fast approaching a point where the market outpaces the rate of expected economic recovery, and / or the market outpaces the rate that can be achieved without incurring substantial financial stability concerns. Our preference is for lower duration bonds, preferably in the belly of the curve. Please see our recent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-macro-manifest-risk-rally-gathers-steam-as-bad-news-more-stimulus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Macro Manifest</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-strategy-melt-up-before-meltdown-where-to-position" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Strategy</a> notes for more details.

Asia headquartered banks fared well despite the global tantrum without taper in the Treasury markets. Asia headquartered bond prices fell by less than their benchmark Treasury market notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Almost all bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Moderate duration, lower risk, bonds continued to outperform, although there were pockets of outperformance in China-headquartered Additional Tier 1 bonds.Bonds in the belly of the curve, that is those maturing or callable in five-years, outperformed longer dated notes. Moderate duration bonds led as investors lost faith in an inflation free economic recovery which would cap market rate rises. This is the opposite of last weeks’ performance, wherein even longer-duration note outperformed. That seemed odd given policymakers repeated statements that they would let the US economy run hot at the risk of stoking inflation. The rapid sell-off in US Treasuries during the week is evidence of market jitters regarding eventual inflation expectations.The pressure on U.S. Treasuries is largely in-line with what we have been cautioning on since the Senate run-off results in Georgia last month. Friday’s correction at the long end may be tested again.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Given the rate of change over the last two weeks, things are moving fast. We identify potential opportunities within. State Bank of India (SBIN IN) represents one credit curve where better opportunities exist in shorter duration bonds, however, Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) may offer even better values, as we note within.Market Outlook: This week’s Treasury market tantrum was not induced by Fed tapering, but it is a reminder of what it may look like when the Fed does dial back its asset purchases. Combined with the strength of the risk-on moves, this makes us uneasy. Financial repression creates a market, which in its nature, is always a one-sided bet with the Fed / ECB/ BOJ.  There is limited price discover as the market is simply sentiment driven. Credit value should remain driven by larger market forces. However, we may be fast approaching a point where the market outpaces the rate of expected economic recovery, and / or the market outpaces the rate that can be achieved without incurring substantial financial stability concerns. Our preference is for lower duration bonds, preferably in the belly of the curve. Please see our recent Bank Macro Manifest and Bank Credit Strategy notes for more details.

Bank Credit Weekly: Asia Credit Outperforms Despite Treasury Tantrum

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns for major indexes around the globe. The path of least resistance remains higher and we continue to believe a melt-up is likely in the weeks/months ahead. The global Technology, Discretionary, and Manufacturing Sectors remain leadership -- add exposure/remain overweight. The Financial Sector has been playing catch-up and continues to show signs of price and RS bottoms as expectations rise for a global recovery -- add exposure.

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Our top five picks for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) price accretion comprise bonds issued by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tmb-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8090:1" rel="noopener">TMB Bank PCL (TMB TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-santander-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27709:1" rel="noopener">Banco Santander Brasil SA (SANB11 BZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizens-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16004:1" rel="noopener">Citizens Financial (CFG US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-o" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a>.  Three banks issued AT1 notes with coupons lower than yields on their respective shorter callable bonds over the last two weeks. The result was a jump in the price of the shorter callable bonds. Information price discovery drove this impact. For more on this, please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chong-hing-bank-at1-alchemy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41645" rel="noopener">Chong Hing Bank: AT1 Alchemy</a>. The alchemy behind these moves requires deconstructing bond spread components to separate the underlying credit risk of the firm from the non-call risk of the security. We then model the possible impact from issuing new AT1 bonds on the price of already outstanding securities.

Our top five picks for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) price accretion comprise bonds issued by TMB Bank PCL (TMB TB), Banco Santander Brasil SA (SANB11 BZ), Citizens Financial (CFG US), Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF) and Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ).  Three banks issued AT1 notes with coupons lower than yields on their respective shorter callable bonds over the last two weeks. The result was a jump in the price of the shorter callable bonds. Information price discovery drove this impact. For more on this, please see: Chong Hing Bank: AT1 Alchemy. The alchemy behind these moves requires deconstructing bond spread components to separate the underlying credit risk of the firm from the non-call risk of the security. We then model the possible impact from issuing new AT1 bonds on the price of already outstanding securities. 

Bank Credit Strategy: Pre-Positioning for AT1 Price Accretion

High yield Tier 2 bonds of Asia-headquartered banks trade at an attractive valuation relative to Tier 2 bonds of other Emerging Market banks. The Tier 2 bonds of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank (BBL TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China CITIC Bank (998 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB)</a> continue to offer a large spread pick-up on a relative value basis.At the same time, several Turkish bank Tier 2 bonds trade with little Option Adjusted Spread pick-up relative to their Senior Unsecured debt. Either these Tier 2 bonds are completely illiquid or considerable distress is priced into Turkish bank Senior Unsecured bonds. A combination of both may be likely. High yield Tier 2 bonds of Latin American banks offer value between Asian and Turkish bank bond levels.In this, the first of a series of notes on Tier 2 debt instruments, we undertake a relative value assessment of Asia-headquartered bank bonds as compared to higher yielding bonds in other Emerging Markets. Future reports will consider call risk and fundamental perspectives as we identify our top picks in pans in this segment of the bank credit continuum.

High yield Tier 2 bonds of Asia-headquartered banks trade at an attractive valuation relative to Tier 2 bonds of other Emerging Market banks. The Tier 2 bonds of Bangkok Bank (BBL TB), China CITIC Bank (998 HK) and Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK TB) continue to offer a large spread pick-up on a relative value basis.At the same time, several Turkish bank Tier 2 bonds trade with little Option Adjusted Spread pick-up relative to their Senior Unsecured debt. Either these Tier 2 bonds are completely illiquid or considerable distress is priced into Turkish bank Senior Unsecured bonds. A combination of both may be likely. High yield Tier 2 bonds of Latin American banks offer value between Asian and Turkish bank bond levels.In this, the first of a series of notes on Tier 2 debt instruments, we undertake a relative value assessment of Asia-headquartered bank bonds as compared to higher yielding bonds in other Emerging Markets. Future reports will consider call risk and fundamental perspectives as we identify our top picks in pans in this segment of the bank credit continuum.

Asian Bank HY Tier 2: Relative Value Vs Global Emerging Market Peers

Brazil

Itau Unibanco Holding S.A. attracts deposits and offer retail, commercial, corporate, and private banking services. The Bank offers consumer loans, financial management, insurance, pension plans, treasury services, mortgage loans, lease financing, securities brokerage, and foreign exchange services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Itau Unibanco Holding (ITUB US)

Bank Credit Weekly: Asia Credit Outperforms Despite Treasury Tantrum

Global bank bond prices fell by less than their benchmark notes, resulting in a bout of credit outperformance. Given the rate of change, there are...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Global Equity Strategy: Santa Claus Rally Underway

Our bullish outlook continues to be supported by ongoing positive market dynamics and the absence of breakdowns across indexes, and we continue to...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Inflections Around The World

In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials & Energy Sectors.

Vermilion Research

Bank Credit Strategy: Pre-Positioning for AT1 Price Accretion

Our top five picks for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) price accretion comprise bonds issued by TMB Bank PCL (TMB TB), Banco Santander Brasil SA (SANB11...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Asian Bank HY Tier 2: Relative Value Vs Global Emerging Market Peers

High yield Tier 2 bonds of Asia-headquartered banks trade at an attractive valuation relative to Tier 2 bonds of other Emerging Market banks. The...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)