Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese parcel volume growth slowed in July (+22%) vs firmer pace in Q2 (+32%)</li>
<li>At company level, there are signs the steep price declines from H1 are moderating</li>
<li>If worst of price declines is in rearview mirror, beat down names are worth a look</li>
</ul>


Chinese parcel volume growth slowed in July (+22%) vs firmer pace in Q2 (+32%)
At company level, there are signs the steep price declines from H1 are moderating
If worst of price declines is in rearview mirror, beat down names are worth a look


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Volume Growth Eased | Price Declines Moderating (August 2024)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1347 HK/ACMR US: Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II begins tool move-in (+/+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/BIDU US/0175 HK: “Xiaomi criticized for selling cars at a loss” goes viral (+/-/-)</li>
<li>2150 HK:Nayuki's First Overseas Flagship Store Opens in Thailand (+)</li>
</ul>


1347 HK/ACMR US: Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II begins tool move-in (+/+)
1810 HK/BIDU US/0175 HK: “Xiaomi criticized for selling cars at a loss” goes viral (+/-/-)
2150 HK:Nayuki's First Overseas Flagship Store Opens in Thailand (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

<ul>
<li>Another set of strong results from YMM, revenue and core earnings both up</li>
<li>Need to monitor orders per MAU; reason for decline in Q224 unclear</li>
<li>Maintain US$9.45/ADS target price, ADSs are attractive closer to US$7</li>
</ul>


Another set of strong results from YMM, revenue and core earnings both up
Need to monitor orders per MAU; reason for decline in Q224 unclear
Maintain US$9.45/ADS target price, ADSs are attractive closer to US$7


Full Truck Alliance Q224 Results: Generally Strong Growth | Attractive Closer to US$7 Per ADS

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market showed defensiveness during early August selloff and the overall breadth of the market continues to improve.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK)</a> received upgrades after reporting strong 2Q24 results.  Its SEA and China business showed growth in revenue and profitability.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-entertainment-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK)</a> received an upgrade after revenue and EBITDA approached pre-COVID levels.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fit-hon-teng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22868:1" rel="noopener">FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK)</a> is seeing improvement in AI server, AirPod, and EV segments.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market showed defensiveness during early August selloff and the overall breadth of the market continues to improve.

J&amp;T Global Express (1519 HK) received upgrades after reporting strong 2Q24 results.  Its SEA and China business showed growth in revenue and profitability.

Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK) received an upgrade after revenue and EBITDA approached pre-COVID levels.  FIT Hon Teng (6088 HK) is seeing improvement in AI server, AirPod, and EV segments.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 21)

<ul>
<li>Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA</li>
<li>But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow</li>
<li>ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it</li>
</ul>


Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA
But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow
ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it


ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

Hong Kong

J&T Global Express Limited operates as a global logistics service provider. The Company offers road express delivery, air express transportation, supply chain warehousing, and other value added services. J&T Global Express conducts business in China, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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J&T Global Express (1519 HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Volume Growth Eased | Price Declines Moderating (August 2024)

There are growing signs the worst of the steep unit price declines that have weighed down the Chinese express sector over the past year are now...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Full Truck Alliance Q224 Results: Generally Strong Growth | Attractive Closer to US$7 Per ADS

Full Truck Alliance reported another strong set of numbers in Q224. After a surprisng Y/Y decline in orders per MAU, we will monitor this number...

Tracking Traffic

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 21)

The Hong Kong market breadth continues to improve as the market has shown defensive qualities during recent selloff. J&T Global, Galaxy and FIT...

David Mudd

ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

ZTO's headline Q224 numbers look OK, but they don't paint an accurate picture of what's happening in the core express segment. We suggest investors...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Volume Growth Eased | Price Declines Moderating (August 2024)

There are growing signs the worst of the steep unit price declines that have weighed down the Chinese express sector over the past year are now...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1347HK/ACMR/1810HK/BIDU/175HK/1211HK/NIO/XPEV/TSLA/LI/2150HK/1519HK/ZTO/1810HK

​Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Full Truck Alliance Q224 Results: Generally Strong Growth | Attractive Closer to US$7 Per ADS

Full Truck Alliance reported another strong set of numbers in Q224. After a surprisng Y/Y decline in orders per MAU, we will monitor this number...

Tracking Traffic

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 21)

The Hong Kong market breadth continues to improve as the market has shown defensive qualities during recent selloff. J&T Global, Galaxy and FIT...

David Mudd

ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

ZTO's headline Q224 numbers look OK, but they don't paint an accurate picture of what's happening in the core express segment. We suggest investors...

Tracking Traffic

Hua Hong Wuxi Fab Phase II starts tool move-in, Xiaomi faces backlash for selling cars at a loss, Nayuki opens first overseas store in Thailand.