Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects the SET Index to trade with upward volatility in early October, supported by optimism over the new government’s policies, including cost-of-living relief (Khon La Khrueng co-payment scheme), spending stimulus for middle- to high-income groups (Easy E-Receipt), and tourism promotion.</li><li>However, volatility may return in mid-to-late October as 3Q25 earnings season begins, led by commercial banks (with weaker YoY and QoQ results expected), alongside key events such as the Fed meeting and the APEC summit.</li><li>We expect earnings of banks under our coverage to weaken both YoY and QoQ, which could drive volatility in bank stocks.</li></ul>

KTX expects the SET Index to trade with upward volatility in early October, supported by optimism over the new government’s policies, including cost-of-living relief (Khon La Khrueng co-payment scheme), spending stimulus for middle- to high-income groups (Easy E-Receipt), and tourism promotion.However, volatility may return in mid-to-late October as 3Q25 earnings season begins, led by commercial banks (with weaker YoY and QoQ results expected), alongside key events such as the Fed meeting and the APEC summit.We expect earnings of banks under our coverage to weaken both YoY and QoQ, which could drive volatility in bank stocks.

Monthly Report: October 2025: Outlook: Volatile With An Upward Bias

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to consolidate today ahead of the Fed meeting outcome, with the support at 1,300/1,284 points and the resistance at 1,316/1,334 points.</li><li>Expectations for “Easy e-Receipt” Phase 2 are viewed as a positive catalyst for retail and department store stocks (HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, BJC, CRC, CPN), as well as IT retailers (COM7, SYNEX, JMART, SPVI, CPW, ADVICE).</li><li>The President of the Thai Retailers Association proposed three urgent measures: i) stimulating consumer spending through the “Khon La Khrueng” co-payment scheme and “Easy e-Receipt” Phase 2, ii) promoting Thailand as a shopping hub for tourists, and iii) boosting employment and workforce capacity.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to consolidate today ahead of the Fed meeting outcome, with the support at 1,300/1,284 points and the resistance at 1,316/1,334 points.Expectations for “Easy e-Receipt” Phase 2 are viewed as a positive catalyst for retail and department store stocks (HMPRO, GLOBAL, DOHOME, BJC, CRC, CPN), as well as IT retailers (COM7, SYNEX, JMART, SPVI, CPW, ADVICE).The President of the Thai Retailers Association proposed three urgent measures: i) stimulating consumer spending through the “Khon La Khrueng” co-payment scheme and “Easy e-Receipt” Phase 2, ii) promoting Thailand as a shopping hub for tourists, and iii) boosting employment and workforce capacity.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 17, 2025

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade with an upward bias today, with the support at 1,260/1,250 and the resistance at 1,276/1,291.</li><li>The outlook for 2H25 is positive as the technology sector enters its high season, supported by flagship products and AI-integrated smart devices.</li><li>The baht has continued to strengthen, recently appreciating below 32/USD to around 31.8/USD — its strongest level in three and a half years and the second-best performing Asian currency year-to-date, after the Taiwan dollar.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade with an upward bias today, with the support at 1,260/1,250 and the resistance at 1,276/1,291.The outlook for 2H25 is positive as the technology sector enters its high season, supported by flagship products and AI-integrated smart devices.The baht has continued to strengthen, recently appreciating below 32/USD to around 31.8/USD — its strongest level in three and a half years and the second-best performing Asian currency year-to-date, after the Taiwan dollar.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 9, 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a couple of ad hoc rebalances in Korea last week for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY)</a>. </li>
<li>Coming Friday will mark the end of the review period for the next rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, LQ45, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP</a> as well as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50</a> June implementation.</li>
<li>With Japan indices moving higher, the largest inflows went into ETFs tracking the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> and other local/global indices.</li>
</ul>


There were a couple of ad hoc rebalances in Korea last week for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) and KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY). 
Coming Friday will mark the end of the review period for the next rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, LQ45, PCOMP as well as the SET50 June implementation.
With Japan indices moving higher, the largest inflows went into ETFs tracking the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) and other local/global indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, KOSPI2, New Deal, SET50, MOG Digitech, Syngenta IPO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wha-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:104:1" rel="noopener">WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> in June.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.</li>
<li>The largest impact of passive buying will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy. </li>
</ul>



Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and WHA Corp Pcl (WHA TB) will replace Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) and JMT Network Services (JMT TB) in the SET 50 Index in June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1.7% and will result in a one-way trade of THB 1,533m. The Financials and Real Estate sectors gain at the expense of the other sectors.
The largest impact of passive buying will be on Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of free float to buy. 


SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT

Thailand

Jaymart PCL distributes mobile phones and accessories.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, provide retail management and debt collection services.

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Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)

Monthly Report: October 2025: Outlook: Volatile With An Upward Bias

KTX expects the SET Index to trade with upward volatility in early October, supported by optimism over the new government’s policies, including...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 17, 2025

The SET Index is expected to consolidate today ahead of the Fed meeting outcome, with the support at 1,300/1,284 points and the resistance at 1,316...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 9, 2025

The SET Index is expected to trade with an upward bias today, with the support at 1,260/1,250 and the resistance at 1,276/1,291.

Krungthai XSpring

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, KOSPI2, New Deal, SET50, MOG Digitech, Syngenta IPO

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance: TLI, WHA to Replace JMART, JMT

TLI & WHA will replace JMART & JMT in the SET50 on 30 June. Passive trackers will need to buy 3.4% of the float on TLI. The adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

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