Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>98 days since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is yet no end to the war in sight.</li>
<li>We concluded that the market remains on course for a global recession down the road.</li>
<li>India and Indonesia should be a better bond destination, in our view, for those who must keep their bond portfolio invested.</li>
</ul>


98 days since Russia invaded Ukraine and there is yet no end to the war in sight.
We concluded that the market remains on course for a global recession down the road.
India and Indonesia should be a better bond destination, in our view, for those who must keep their bond portfolio invested.


Bond Market Monitor: Not Out of the Woods

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

In our view, JSW Steel’s Q4 and FY 2021-22 results were robust, with strong growth in production volumes, revenues and earnings. The financial risk profile has improved and is healthy. Liquidity is sound. However, we believe that JSW has experienced the peak of the cycle and profitability will likely reduce from current levels, driven by multiple factors including the Russia-Ukraine war which drove up key raw material prices (coking coal and iron ore). In addition, the recent export duty will likely also hurt India’s domestic steel players (particularly JSW), whose exports as a percentage of sales volumes were roughly double that of the industry. Hence, we foresee significantly lower earnings despite healthy growth in volumes and revenues in FY 2022-23. We expect a double-digit increase in volumes, driven by the capacity expansion programmes at Dolvi and Vijayanagar. We also project double-digit growth in revenues (c. 20%) in FY 2022-23, on account of the volume expansion and prices.

  In our view, JSW Steel’s Q4 and FY 2021-22 results were robust, with strong growth in production volumes, revenues and earnings. The financial risk profile has improved and is healthy. Liquidity is sound.   However, we believe that JSW has experienced the peak of the cycle and profitability will likely reduce from current levels, driven by multiple factors including the Russia-Ukraine war which drove up key raw material prices (coking coal and iron ore). In addition, the recent export duty will likely also hurt India’s domestic steel players (particularly JSW), whose exports as a percentage of sales volumes were roughly double that of the industry. Hence, we foresee significantly lower earnings despite healthy growth in volumes and revenues in FY 2022-23. We expect a double-digit increase in volumes, driven by the capacity expansion programmes at Dolvi and Vijayanagar. We also project double-digit growth in revenues (c. 20%) in FY 2022-23, on account of the volume expansion and prices. 

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2021-22 Results - Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-805'>SJM Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22202'>Vedanta Resources</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.JSW Steel LtdSJM HoldingsVedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, SJM Holdings, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/adani-ports-special-economic-zone-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone</a></li><li><a href='/entities/yanzhou-coal-mining-company-limited-h' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited H</a></li><li><a href='/entities/vedanta-resources-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Vedanta Resources</a></li><li><a href='/entities/indika-energy-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Indika Energy</a></li><li><a href='/entities/pakuwon-jati-tbk-pt' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Pakuwon Jati</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Adani Ports & Special Economic ZoneYanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited HVedanta ResourcesIndika EnergyPakuwon Jatiand more...

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-9334'>Delta Dunia Makmur</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-1776'>Indika Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-18561'>JSW Steel Ltd</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20844'>Medco Energi</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8550'>Pakuwon Jati</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20776'>UPL Ltd</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Delta Dunia MakmurIndika EnergyJSW Steel LtdMedco EnergiPakuwon JatiUPL Ltd

Morning Views Asia: Delta Dunia Makmur, Indika Energy, JSW Steel Ltd, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati

India

JSW Steel Limited is an integrated steel producer with manufacturing facilities in Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the western state of Maharashtra. The Company produces products including hot rolled coils, cold rolled coils, wire rods, galvanized coils and sheets.

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JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)

Bond Market Monitor: Not Out of the Woods

On-going maturity extensions and exchange offers will keep investors away from China. India and Indonesia should be a better bond destination for...

Bondcritic

JSW Steel - Earnings Flash - FY 2021-22 Results - Lucror Analytics

In our view, JSW Steel’s Q4 and FY 2021-22 results were robust, with strong growth in production volumes, revenues and earnings. The financial...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, SJM Holdings, Vedanta Resources

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Weekly Wrap - 27 May 2022

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Delta Dunia Makmur, Indika Energy, JSW Steel Ltd, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

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