Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2020 review of the KOSDAQ150 Index in the second half of November. The constituent changes will be effective from the open on 11 December 2020 and the rebalancing trades will need to be done at the closing auction on 10 December 2020.The review covers the period from 1 May to 31 October. We have gone through 120 trading days and there are only 3 days remaining in the review period. Since the data is averaged, there is a very small possibility of the names changing over the next few days.At the current time, we see 16 potential inclusions and exclusions with a one-way turnover of 6.94%. This includes the fast entry inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games (293490 KS)</a>.The expected inclusions have outperformed the expected deletions since the start of the review period but have given up a significant part of the gains over the last couple of months. With short selling still banned, there could be another period of outperformance prior to the announcement with continuation leading up to implementation date.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2020 review of the KOSDAQ150 Index in the second half of November. The constituent changes will be effective from the open on 11 December 2020 and the rebalancing trades will need to be done at the closing auction on 10 December 2020.The review covers the period from 1 May to 31 October. We have gone through 120 trading days and there are only 3 days remaining in the review period. Since the data is averaged, there is a very small possibility of the names changing over the next few days.At the current time, we see 16 potential inclusions and exclusions with a one-way turnover of 6.94%. This includes the fast entry inclusion of Kakao Games (293490 KS).The expected inclusions have outperformed the expected deletions since the start of the review period but have given up a significant part of the gains over the last couple of months. With short selling still banned, there could be another period of outperformance prior to the announcement with continuation leading up to implementation date.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Reversion Sets Up an Attractive Entry Point

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games (1404796D KS)</a> is down almost 9% today due to the expiry of the 1 month lock up on IPO shares. Of the institutional allotment, there were 4.36m shares that were locked in for 1 month and are eligible for sale today. Volume traded so far today has already crossed 4.7m shares.With the review period for changes to the KOSDAQ150 index in the December review ending on 30 October, this is a crucial phase that will determine if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-games-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26730:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Games (1404796D KS)</a> makes the cut for inclusion in the index.Based on current prices, the stock easily makes the case for index inclusion and only a very steep fall over the next 2 weeks would take the stock out of the list of probable inclusions.In this Insight, we look at the Kakao Games IPO, the criteria for inclusion in the KOSDAQ150 Index, and the impact on the stock if it is included in the index.

Kakao Games (1404796D KS) is down almost 9% today due to the expiry of the 1 month lock up on IPO shares. Of the institutional allotment, there were 4.36m shares that were locked in for 1 month and are eligible for sale today. Volume traded so far today has already crossed 4.7m shares.With the review period for changes to the KOSDAQ150 index in the December review ending on 30 October, this is a crucial phase that will determine if Kakao Games (1404796D KS) makes the cut for inclusion in the index.Based on current prices, the stock easily makes the case for index inclusion and only a very steep fall over the next 2 weeks would take the stock out of the list of probable inclusions.In this Insight, we look at the Kakao Games IPO, the criteria for inclusion in the KOSDAQ150 Index, and the impact on the stock if it is included in the index.

Kakao Games - KOSDAQ150 December Inclusion and Lock Up Expiry

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Equity Capital Markets

We all know the EV/EBITDA approach can be very misleading in the Big Hit IPO.So, let's make a more reasonable approach with PER.Korea has three major entertainment talent agencies. They are often called Big Three.<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yg-entertainment-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16138:1" rel="noopener">YG Entertainment (122870 KS)</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jyp-entertainment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17598:1" rel="noopener">JYP Entertainment (035900 KS)</a></li>
</ul>Below is the PER comparison on FY20 projected earnings. The upper end of the indicative price band sets the PER at 69x, which is much lower than SM and YG. <table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="96">
<col width="96">
<col width="96">
<col width="96">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PERs/FY20E earnings (₩B)"}'>PERs/FY20E earnings (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sales"}'>Sales</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"OP"}'>OP</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Earnings"}'>Earnings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PER"}'>PER (x)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"OPM"}'>OPM</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NPM"}'>NPM</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[9], "name")' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SM Entertainment Co Ltd"}'>SM Entertainment Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":569}'>569.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":37.3}'>37.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10.2}'>10.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[4]/R[0]C[3]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":87.47769980882353}'>87.48</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-3]/R[0]C[-4]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.06555360281195079}'>6.56%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-3]/R[0]C[-5]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.017926186291739893}'>1.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[9], "name")' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"YG Entertainment Inc"}'>YG Entertainment Inc</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":237}'>237.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8.3}'>8.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10.3}'>10.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[4]/R[0]C[3]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":103.03534913592232}'>103.04</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-3]/R[0]C[-4]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.035021097046413506}'>3.50%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-3]/R[0]C[-5]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.04345991561181435}'>4.35%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[0]C[9], "name")' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"JYP Entertainment Corp"}'>JYP Entertainment Corp</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":137.4}'>137.4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":41}'>41.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":30.7}'>30.7</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[4]/R[0]C[3]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":46.94456596742671}'>46.94</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-3]/R[0]C[-4]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.29839883551673946}'>29.84%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-3]/R[0]C[-5]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.22343522561863172}'>22.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Big Hit (1H×2/upper)"}'>Big Hit (1H×2/upper)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Pricing!R[54]C[0]*2" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":587.991592}'>588.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Pricing!R[55]C[-1]*2" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":99.50966}'>99.5</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Pricing!R[56]C[-2]*2" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":66.339512}'>66.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[4]/R[0]C[3]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":68.87653801251959}'>68.88</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-3]/R[0]C[-4]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1692365356135909}'>16.92%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-3]/R[0]C[-5]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.11282391262492747}'>11.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>But this is misleading because SM and YG's earnings for this year aren't aligned with a normalized level.Below is the 12M forward PER comparison, which should be a more normalized picture.Big Hit's 12M earnings band is ₩75~90B. At the upper end of the indicative price band, the PER range is 51~61x.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PERs/FY21E earnings (₩B)"}'>PERs/FY21E earnings (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Earnings"}'>Earnings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PER (x)"}'>PER (x)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Big Hit (12M lower)"}'>Big Hit (12M lower)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":75}'>75.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":60.92}'>60.92</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Big Hit (12M mid)"}'>Big Hit (12M mid)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":82.5}'>82.5</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":55.38}'>55.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Big Hit (12M upper)"}'>Big Hit (12M upper)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":90}'>90.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":50.77}'>50.77</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>At the mid-level (₩82.5B), the 12M PER range on the indicative price band is 43~55x, which is acceptably higher than the three direct valuation peers.But things can get crazy once we see the same pattern as the previous two IPOs (SKBP and Kakao G). At 2x the upper end, 12M PER will soar to 111x, which is about 3x the local peer average.<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="96">
<col width="96">
<col width="96">
<col width="96">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"12M PER (₩B)"}'>12M PER (₩B)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"12M PER (x)"}'>12M PER (x)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price"}'>Price</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"MC"}'>MC</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TP"}'>TP</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Δ"}'>Δ</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Coverage"}'>Coverage</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[0]" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"SM Entertainment Co Ltd"}'>SM Entertainment Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[9]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":28.78}'>28.78</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":37950}'>₩37,950</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[-16]C[6], "marketcap")/1000000000' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":891.100038}'>891.1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[7]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":46800}'>₩46,800</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-3])/R[0]C[-3]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.233201581027668}'>23.32%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10}'>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[0]" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"YG Entertainment Inc"}'>YG Entertainment Inc</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[9]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":45.4}'>45.40</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":58500}'>₩58,500</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[-16]C[6], "marketcap")/1000000000' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1068.595275}'>1,068.6</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[7]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":55250}'>₩55,250</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-3])/R[0]C[-3]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.05555555555555555}'>-5.56%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":8}'>8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[0]" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"JYP Entertainment Corp"}'>JYP Entertainment Corp</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[9]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35.99}'>35.99</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":40750}'>₩40,750</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[-16]C[6], "marketcap")/1000000000' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1446.522799}'>1,446.5</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[7]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":43722}'>₩43,722</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-1]-R[0]C[-3])/R[0]C[-3]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.07293251533742331}'>7.29%</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-16]C[6]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9}'>9</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" style="text-align: left;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Big Hit (12M mid)"}'>Big Hit (12M mid)</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Lower"}'>- Lower</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[1]/R13C8" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":43.076971636363645}'>43.08</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Pricing!R[-20]C[-1]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":105000}'>₩105,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*Terms!R46C4/1000000000" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3553.85016}'>3,553.9</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Upper"}'>- Upper</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[1]/R13C8" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":55.38467781818183}'>55.38</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=Pricing!R[-21]C[1]" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":135000}'>₩135,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*Terms!R46C4/1000000000" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4569.23592}'>4,569.2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Upper×2"}'>- Upper×2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[1]/R13C8" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":110.76935563636366}'>110.77</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*2" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":270000}'>₩270,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*Terms!R46C4/1000000000" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":9138.47184}'>9,138.5</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Upper×2×1.3"}'>- Upper×2×1.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[1]/R13C8" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":144.00016232727273}'>144.00</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*1.3" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":351000}'>₩351,000</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*Terms!R46C4/1000000000" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11880.013392}'>11,880.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Upper×2×1.3×1.3"}'>- Upper×2×1.3×1.3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[1]/R13C8" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":187.20021102545456}'>187.20</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*1.3" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":456300}'>₩456,300</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*Terms!R46C4/1000000000" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15444.0174096}'>15,444.0</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0"}' data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"-"}'>-</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide"}'>Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

We all know the EV/EBITDA approach can be very misleading in the Big Hit IPO.So, let's make a more reasonable approach with PER.Korea has three major entertainment talent agencies. They are often called Big Three.

S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) 

YG Entertainment (122870 KS) 
JYP Entertainment (035900 KS)
Below is the PER comparison on FY20 projected earnings. The upper end of the indicative price band sets the PER at 69x, which is much lower than SM and YG. 











PERs/FY20E earnings (₩B)
Sales
OP
Earnings
PER (x)
OPM
NPM


SM Entertainment Co Ltd
569.0
37.3
10.2
87.48
6.56%
1.79%


YG Entertainment Inc
237.0
8.3
10.3
103.04
3.50%
4.35%


JYP Entertainment Corp
137.4
41.0
30.7
46.94
29.84%
22.34%


Big Hit (1H×2/upper)
588.0
99.5
66.3
68.88
16.92%
11.28%

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide

But this is misleading because SM and YG's earnings for this year aren't aligned with a normalized level.Below is the 12M forward PER comparison, which should be a more normalized picture.Big Hit's 12M earnings band is ₩75~90B. At the upper end of the indicative price band, the PER range is 51~61x.







PERs/FY21E earnings (₩B)
Earnings
PER (x)


Big Hit (12M lower)
75.0
60.92


Big Hit (12M mid)
82.5
55.38


Big Hit (12M upper)
90.0
50.77

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide

At the mid-level (₩82.5B), the 12M PER range on the indicative price band is 43~55x, which is acceptably higher than the three direct valuation peers.But things can get crazy once we see the same pattern as the previous two IPOs (SKBP and Kakao G). At 2x the upper end, 12M PER will soar to 111x, which is about 3x the local peer average.











12M PER (₩B)
12M PER (x)
Price
MC
TP
Δ
Coverage


SM Entertainment Co Ltd
28.78
₩37,950
891.1
₩46,800
23.32%
10


YG Entertainment Inc
45.40
₩58,500
1,068.6
₩55,250
-5.56%
8


JYP Entertainment Corp
35.99
₩40,750
1,446.5
₩43,722
7.29%
9

Big Hit (12M mid)

- Lower
43.08
₩105,000
3,553.9
-
-
-


- Upper
55.38
₩135,000
4,569.2
-
-
-


- Upper×2
110.77
₩270,000
9,138.5
-
-
-


- Upper×2×1.3
144.00
₩351,000
11,880.0
-
-
-


- Upper×2×1.3×1.3
187.20
₩456,300
15,444.0
-
-
-

Source: KRX &amp; FnGuide



Big Hit Ent. IPO: Valuations & Exit Price Level

Kakao Games is undergoing the second day of a well-anticipated correction.It is now down -7.7% this morning. The current TV is already one fourth that of yesterday, which soared to ₩1.5tril, 25% of the market cap.Again, as well expected, the foreign short-term IPO money has all left Kakao G. As of the previous close, the FO % was 0.59%, down by 2.04 percent point from 2.63%. Presumably, it is even lower now.













Date
Close (₩)
%
TV
TV (₩B)
Local inst.
Foreign
FO
FO %


2020.09.15
68,100
-7.72%
5,400,000
367.7
-
-
-
-


2020.09.14
73,800
-9.00%
20,213,705
1,491.8
-578,393
-999,063
428,995
0.59%


2020.09.11
81,100
29.97%
5,013,124
406.6
-786,093
-397,435
1,428,058
1.95%


2020.09.10
62,400
30.00%
561,750
35.1
-100,870
-99,289
1,825,493
2.49%


- Opening price
48,000
100.00%
-
-
-
-
1,924,782
2.63%


- IPO price
24,000
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

Source: KRX

At the current price, the PERs range from 63.4x to 85.2x on FY20E earnings (an EPS band of ₩800~1,074).









PERs/FY20E earnings (₩B)
Earnings
EPS
Price
PER


1H20 annualized
65.0
₩858
₩68,100
79.36


Hanwha
68.7
₩907
₩68,100
75.11


Daishin
81.4
₩1,074
₩68,100
63.39


Shinyoung
75.0
₩990
₩68,100
68.80


- Case 1
60.6
₩800
₩68,100
85.15


- Case 2
66.9
₩883
₩68,100
77.13


- Case 3
73.2
₩966
₩68,100
70.49

Source: DART, KRX, &amp; HK Consensus













Consolidated (₩B)
2020E
2021E


Sales
505.0
557.5
610.0
602.0
738.0
874.0


- Existing lineup
400.0
400.0
400.0
300.0
300.0
300.0


- Guardian Tales
75.0
112.5
150.0
180.0
270.0
360.0


: Release date
July 29, 2020


: Daily est. sales
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.75
1.00


- Elyon
30.0
45.0
60.0
72.0
108.0
144.0


: Release date
November 1, 2020


: Daily est. sales
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.20
0.30
0.40


- Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
50.0
60.0
70.0


OP
70.7
78.1
85.4
84.3
103.3
122.4


NP
60.6
66.9
73.2
72.2
88.6
104.9


Post-IPO SO
75,768,385
75,768,385
75,768,385
75,768,385
75,768,385
75,768,385


EPS (₩)
(Case 1) 800
 (Case 2) 883
 (Case 3) 966
953
1,169
1,384


P/E multiple
34.90
34.90
34.90
34.90
34.90
34.90


Target price (₩)
27,915
30,817
33,719
33,277
40,795
48,313


- Lower-end discount
28.35%
35.10%
40.69%
39.90%
50.97%
58.60%


- Upper-end discount
14.03%
22.12%
28.82%
27.88%
41.17%
50.32%


- OTC price discount
-179.42%
-153.10%
-131.32%
-134.40%
-91.20%
-61.45%

Source: DART

Even at today's harshly corrected price, Kakao G still stands at Korea's most expensive game stock as even the lower end of the PER range is higher than Netmarble, which is the second over-inflated game company.











PERs/FY20E earnings (₩B)
Sales
OP
Earnings
PER
OPM
NPM


Netmarble Corp
2,597.3
272.7
270.3
58.25
10.50%
10.41%


NCSoft Corp
2,561.9
947.5
733.9
24.56
36.98%
28.65%


PearlAbyss Corp
524.6
185.3
150.4
17.48
35.32%
28.67%


Com2uS Corp
513.8
128.6
121.0
12.97
25.03%
23.55%


WE MADE Co Ltd
121.4
6.4
13.8
46.87
5.27%
11.37%


Webzen Inc
257.7
79.4
63.2
21.04
30.81%
24.52%


Neowiz
296.0
67.8
58.5
11.01
22.91%
19.76%


Doubleu Games Co Ltd
662.8
204.5
145.0
9.41
30.85%
21.88%


Kakao Games Corp
557.5
78.1
66.9
74.52
14.00%
12.00%

Source: KRX &amp; DART



Kakao Games: Current Selloff & KOSDAQ 150 Inclusion

Today is the first trading day of Kakao Games.The latest OTC price is ₩78,000, which gives a market cap of ₩5.9tril.More importantly, Kakao Games' trading volume in the OTC market is astonishingly high, suggesting an insanely high level of interest by local retail.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/093/original/1.png?1599685671" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158093"></figure>But the street consensus is substantially lower.Three local brokerages gave an earnings estimate for FY2020. They range from ₩68.7bil (Hanwha) to ₩81.4bil (Daishin).<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/097/original/11.png?1599686118" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158097"></figure>It is pretty much in line with my projected range (₩60.6~73.2bil).<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/098/original/13.png?1599686149" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158098"></figure>The PER range is 22.34~26.47x at the offering price of ₩24,000.If we see the opening price hit the upper end (200%), it will be 44.68~52.94x on FY2020 projected earnings.Then, it reaches the daily ceiling (+30%), we will have a 58.08~69.82x. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/099/original/12.png?1599686265" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158099"></figure>

Today is the first trading day of Kakao Games.The latest OTC price is ₩78,000, which gives a market cap of ₩5.9tril.More importantly, Kakao Games' trading volume in the OTC market is astonishingly high, suggesting an insanely high level of interest by local retail.But the street consensus is substantially lower.Three local brokerages gave an earnings estimate for FY2020. They range from ₩68.7bil (Hanwha) to ₩81.4bil (Daishin).It is pretty much in line with my projected range (₩60.6~73.2bil).The PER range is 22.34~26.47x at the offering price of ₩24,000.If we see the opening price hit the upper end (200%), it will be 44.68~52.94x on FY2020 projected earnings.Then, it reaches the daily ceiling (+30%), we will have a 58.08~69.82x. 

Revise up Kakao G Exit Price: Local Retail Insanity, Hot Money Float, & Valuation Pressure

South Korea

Kakao Games Corp. operates as a multiply platform gaming company. The Company provides mobile games, computer games, virtual reality games, and other related products. Kakao Games markets its products worldwide.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Kakao Games (293490 KS)

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