Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 19 August, KB Kookmin Bank sold a 3.1% stake (14.76 million shares) in KakaoBank (323410 KS). </li>
<li>The block deal sale price was 28,704 won, which was 8% discount to the previous day's closing price.</li>
<li>We continue to have a Negative view of Kakao Bank, due to further overhang on more share sales, concerns about partial ban of simple remittance, and unattractive valuations.</li>
</ul>


On 19 August, KB Kookmin Bank sold a 3.1% stake (14.76 million shares) in KakaoBank (323410 KS). 
The block deal sale price was 28,704 won, which was 8% discount to the previous day's closing price.
We continue to have a Negative view of Kakao Bank, due to further overhang on more share sales, concerns about partial ban of simple remittance, and unattractive valuations.


A Block Deal Sale of 3.1% of Kakao Bank by KB Kookmin Bank

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>POSCO Holdings announced it would cancel ₩567B worth of 2.6M treasury shares last Friday. It represents 3% of the shares outstanding, reducing the treasury shares from 13% to 10%.</li>
<li>With this cancellation, the float change reaches 5%p, triggering an adjustment from 68% to 73% in the upcoming cycle, just in time for the FnGuide Top 10's December rebalancing.</li>
<li>As a result, POSCO Holdings suddenly becomes a strong contender to beat KB Financial in the FnGuide Top 10 rebalancing as they will be in a very tight race.</li>
</ul>


POSCO Holdings announced it would cancel ₩567B worth of 2.6M treasury shares last Friday. It represents 3% of the shares outstanding, reducing the treasury shares from 13% to 10%.
With this cancellation, the float change reaches 5%p, triggering an adjustment from 68% to 73% in the upcoming cycle, just in time for the FnGuide Top 10's December rebalancing.
As a result, POSCO Holdings suddenly becomes a strong contender to beat KB Financial in the FnGuide Top 10 rebalancing as they will be in a very tight race.


POSCO Holdings Stock Cancellation: Tiggering a 5%p Float Change for FnGuide Top 10 ETF

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We believe that there is a relatively high probability that the Korean government will lower the highest corporate tax rate bracket from 25% to 22% starting next year.</li>
<li>A 3% change in corporate tax rate should result in about 4% higher net profit for Korean companies.</li>
<li>Among the top 30 companies in Korea, we believe the companies with the biggest impact on lowering their tax rates include LG Electronics, Naver, Kakao Corp, SK Innovation, and KT&amp;G. </li>
</ul>


We believe that there is a relatively high probability that the Korean government will lower the highest corporate tax rate bracket from 25% to 22% starting next year.
A 3% change in corporate tax rate should result in about 4% higher net profit for Korean companies.
Among the top 30 companies in Korea, we believe the companies with the biggest impact on lowering their tax rates include LG Electronics, Naver, Kakao Corp, SK Innovation, and KT&amp;G. 


Lower Corporate Tax Rate in Korea Could Be an Extra Alpha Kicker

<ul>
<li>The index targets the GICS Financials/Banks sector stocks: 12 stocks belong to this sector. Then nine of these are currently included in the KRX Banks.</li>
<li>Compared to the last rebalancing, where we had Kakao Bank's inclusion event, the impact size for the upcoming rebalancing will likely be significantly reduced.</li>
<li>The last rebalancing showed that the directional correlation between passive flow and price movement was high. So, we can still consider a Long/Short Day Trade even with this impact size.</li>
</ul>


The index targets the GICS Financials/Banks sector stocks: 12 stocks belong to this sector. Then nine of these are currently included in the KRX Banks.
Compared to the last rebalancing, where we had Kakao Bank's inclusion event, the impact size for the upcoming rebalancing will likely be significantly reduced.
The last rebalancing showed that the directional correlation between passive flow and price movement was high. So, we can still consider a Long/Short Day Trade even with this impact size.


KRX Banks Index (KODEX ETF): September Rebalancing Preview

<ul>
<li>Among the local theme ETFs in Korea, the TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 has the highest win rate on rebalancing flow trade.</li>
<li>LG Energy deserves the most attention at the next rebalancing event. If LG Chem disposes of some of its LG Energy shares, LG Energy can bypass those on the borderline.</li>
<li>In this case, Shinhan, the one on the borderline at this point, will face a passive flow of -0.65x ADTV, while LG Energy will receive +0.25x.</li>
</ul>


Among the local theme ETFs in Korea, the TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 has the highest win rate on rebalancing flow trade.
LG Energy deserves the most attention at the next rebalancing event. If LG Chem disposes of some of its LG Energy shares, LG Energy can bypass those on the borderline.
In this case, Shinhan, the one on the borderline at this point, will face a passive flow of -0.65x ADTV, while LG Energy will receive +0.25x.


FnGuide Top 10 (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Review & Preview: LG Energy's Potential Inclusion

South Korea

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

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KB Financial (105560 KS)

A Block Deal Sale of 3.1% of Kakao Bank by KB Kookmin Bank

We continue to have a Negative view of Kakao Bank following block deal sale, due to further overhang on more share sales, concerns about partial...

Douglas Kim

POSCO Holdings Stock Cancellation: Tiggering a 5%p Float Change for FnGuide Top 10 ETF

This post investigates the passive impact of POSCO Holdings' stock cancellation on the FnGuide Top 10 rebalancing in December.

Sanghyun Park

Lower Corporate Tax Rate in Korea Could Be an Extra Alpha Kicker

We believe that there is a relatively high probability that the Korean government will lower the highest corporate tax rate bracket from 25% to 22%...

Douglas Kim

KRX Banks Index (KODEX ETF): September Rebalancing Preview

This post previews the upcoming rebalancing of the KRX Banks Index, one of the KRX-owned thematic indexes with a meaningful AUM despite a small...

Sanghyun Park

FnGuide Top 10 (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Review & Preview: LG Energy's Potential Inclusion

This post reviews the trading pattern seen in the last rebalancing of the FnGuide Top 10 Index (TIGER ETF) and previews the rebalancing flow...

Sanghyun Park

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