Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Kellogg Company delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues below expectations but surpassed the Wall Street consensus regarding earnings.</li><li>With this operating profit result, Kellogg is slightly above its previous full-year forecast.</li><li>Market growth rates for the snacks category remained strong and may have even increased somewhat from the previous quarter.</li></ul>

Kellogg Company delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues below expectations but surpassed the Wall Street consensus regarding earnings.With this operating profit result, Kellogg is slightly above its previous full-year forecast.Market growth rates for the snacks category remained strong and may have even increased somewhat from the previous quarter.

Kellogg Company: Riding the Wave of Global Snack Trends – Can They Sustain the Momentum? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Kellogg managed an all-around beat in the latest quarterly result, with a 14% organic net sales growth and better-than-expected profit margins.</li><li>The company's operating profit showed solid year-on-year growth for the fourth consecutive quarter, and its cash flow and balance sheet remained strong.</li><li>Kellogg raised its guidance for organic net sales growth, adjusted operating profit growth, and adjusted earnings per share, reflecting the strong performance in Q1.</li></ul>

Kellogg managed an all-around beat in the latest quarterly result, with a 14% organic net sales growth and better-than-expected profit margins.The company's operating profit showed solid year-on-year growth for the fourth consecutive quarter, and its cash flow and balance sheet remained strong.Kellogg raised its guidance for organic net sales growth, adjusted operating profit growth, and adjusted earnings per share, reflecting the strong performance in Q1.

Kellogg Company: Does It Still Have A Moat? – Key Drivers

Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>The recently announced restructuring is unlikely to be the silver bullet that many investors are expecting.</li>
<li>Kellogg is now faced with the challenge of improving gross margins.</li>
<li>The high dividend yield is also not as attractive once we factor in the probability of future dividend growth, says Kellogg.</li>
</ul>


The recently announced restructuring is unlikely to be the silver bullet that many investors are expecting.
Kellogg is now faced with the challenge of improving gross margins.
The high dividend yield is also not as attractive once we factor in the probability of future dividend growth, says Kellogg.


Kellogg: Focusing On Snacking Is Not A Silver Bullet

<ul><li>Kellogg ended the year with an all-around beat and double-digit net sales growth in every region, supported by end-market success.</li><li>The company continued to experience great growth in emerging countries, driven by its portfolio of noodles and other products in Africa.</li><li>They reduced the profit impact of abnormally high input costs that increased during the year using efficiency and well-planned activities for managing sales growth.</li></ul>

Kellogg ended the year with an all-around beat and double-digit net sales growth in every region, supported by end-market success.The company continued to experience great growth in emerging countries, driven by its portfolio of noodles and other products in Africa.They reduced the profit impact of abnormally high input costs that increased during the year using efficiency and well-planned activities for managing sales growth.

United States

Kellogg Company manufactures and markets ready-to-eat cereal and other convenience foods. The Company's products include cereals, cookies, crackers, toaster pastries, cereal bars, fruit snacks, frozen waffles and veggie foods. Kellogg markets its products in the United States, Canada, and other countries throughout the world.

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Kellogg Co (K US)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

Kellogg Company: Riding the Wave of Global Snack Trends – Can They Sustain the Momentum? - Major Drivers

Kellogg Company delivered mixed results in the quarter, with revenues below expectations but surpassed the Wall Street consensus regarding...

Baptista Research

Kellogg Company: Does It Still Have A Moat? – Key Drivers

Kellogg managed an all-around beat in the latest quarterly result, with a 14% organic net sales growth and better-than-expected profit...

Baptista Research

Kellogg: Focusing On Snacking Is Not A Silver Bullet

The recently announced restructuring is unlikely to be the silver bullet that many investors are expecting.Kellogg is now faced with the challenge...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Kellogg Company: Major Drivers

Kellogg ended the year with an all-around beat and double-digit net sales growth in every region, supported by end-market success. The company...

Baptista Research

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