Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume </li>
<li>We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a> has played there</li>
<li>We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)'s operation in SE Asia, where it's the region's dominant player, with market share of 22.5% by volume 
We profile SE Asian demand and supply and compare these to the development of China's express industry, acknowledging the key role Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US) has played there
We also present a framework for estimating the value of J&amp;T's SE Asian operation by identifying the most appropriate comps and EV valuation multiples


J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The precondition for the consortium’s privatisation offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> has been satisfied. The right to increase the share alternative cap was also satisfied. </li>
<li>The consortium has until 12 December to decide whether to increase the share cap. The option helps the consortium gain support from shareholders who would not accept the cash offer. </li>
<li>The scheme vote remains low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. The de-rating of peers is also helpful. </li>
</ul>


The precondition for the consortium’s privatisation offer for ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) has been satisfied. The right to increase the share alternative cap was also satisfied. 
The consortium has until 12 December to decide whether to increase the share cap. The option helps the consortium gain support from shareholders who would not accept the cash offer. 
The scheme vote remains low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. The de-rating of peers is also helpful. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). </li>
<li>The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. </li>
<li>The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. </li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) has disclosed a preconditional scheme privatisation offer from a consortium. The offer is cash (HK$12.18) or scrip (One TopCo Class A Share per scheme share). 
The precondition relates to SAMR approval. The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. 
The offer price is final. Mr Wang Yongjun, the former chairman, holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. Timing is the key risk. 


ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a> is on a halt “<em>pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.</em>” </li>
<li>I expect the halt is related to a potential privatisation bid from either a trade buyer, such as one of the Tongda operators, or an MBO sponsored by Centurium Capital.</li>
<li>I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a range of HK$11.34-11.80 per share, with an average of HK$11.55, a 14% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) is on a halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
I expect the halt is related to a potential privatisation bid from either a trade buyer, such as one of the Tongda operators, or an MBO sponsored by Centurium Capital.
I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests a range of HK$11.34-11.80 per share, with an average of HK$11.55, a 14% premium to the last close.


ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Trade Buyer or Centurium Capital to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

Equity Bottom-Up

Kerry Express Thailand / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>H125 results from KEX, J&amp;T Global (SE Asia) tell two very different stories</li>
<li>KEX shrunk under pressure from J&amp;T and Flash, a private express "unicorn"</li>
<li>SE Asia still promises X-border growth; impact on SF Holding limited</li>
</ul>


H125 results from KEX, J&amp;T Global (SE Asia) tell two very different stories
KEX shrunk under pressure from J&amp;T and Flash, a private express "unicorn"
SE Asia still promises X-border growth; impact on SF Holding limited


After Battling J&T Global and Flash in Thailand's Express Market, KEX Shrinks, Then Delists

Hong Kong

Kerry Logistics Network Limited provides logistics services in Asia and internationally. The Company offers integrated logistics services, as well as leases warehousing space in Hong Kong and provides international freight forwarding services.

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Kerry Logistics Network (636 HK)

J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 2: SE Asia Operation | Demand, Supply Profiles | Valuation Approach

We're pulling this insight out of the archives in light of J&T's updated filing and its decision to begin pushing forward with its IPO in Hong Kong...

Tracking Traffic

ANE (9956 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The vote remains low risk, as the offer is attractive. The de-rating of peers is also helpful. At last close, the gross/annualised spread was 5.5%...

Arun George

ANE (9956 HK): Consortium’s Attractive Preconditional Offer

The scheme vote is low risk, as the offer is attractive relative to historical ranges and peer multiples. Timing is the key risk.

Arun George

ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Trade Buyer or Centurium Capital to Launch a Privatisation Offer?

On 17 September, the Board received a conditional privatisation proposal from Centurium Capital and Temasek. No price was disclosed. Nearly a month...

Arun George

After Battling J&T Global and Flash in Thailand's Express Market, KEX Shrinks, Then Delists

Under pressure on multiple fronts, Kerry Express Thailand recently delisted its shares after less than five years of life as a publicly-traded...

Tracking Traffic

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