Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets to 20 September show worsening general trends for large US banks, that can point to risk aversion, and worse net interest income and profit delta. </li>
<li>Loan growth ratcheted well lower from 2.04% YoY three weeks ago, to 1.89% two weeks ago and now to 1.54% in most recent week's data. CRE loans see worsening contraction. </li>
<li>Large US banks continue to accelerating growth in Jumbo Time Deposits, now at 89.0% YoY vs 85.8% in preceding week. These are now 6.8% of deposits, 2.1% higher WoW. </li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets to 20 September show worsening general trends for large US banks, that can point to risk aversion, and worse net interest income and profit delta. 
Loan growth ratcheted well lower from 2.04% YoY three weeks ago, to 1.89% two weeks ago and now to 1.54% in most recent week's data. CRE loans see worsening contraction. 
Large US banks continue to accelerating growth in Jumbo Time Deposits, now at 89.0% YoY vs 85.8% in preceding week. These are now 6.8% of deposits, 2.1% higher WoW. 


US Big Banks - Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul><li>The US banking sector has encountered a multitude of challenges and transformations in recent months, triggered by the collapse of several regional banks and the Federal Reserve's implementation of interest rate hikes.</li><li>In March, Silvergate Capital, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank of New York faced financial dis- tress, followed by First Republic Bank on May 1st.</li><li>Silvergate and Signature grappled with their ties to a volatile cryptocurrency market that experienced significant fluctuations.</li></ul>

The US banking sector has encountered a multitude of challenges and transformations in recent months, triggered by the collapse of several regional banks and the Federal Reserve's implementation of interest rate hikes.In March, Silvergate Capital, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank of New York faced financial dis- tress, followed by First Republic Bank on May 1st.Silvergate and Signature grappled with their ties to a volatile cryptocurrency market that experienced significant fluctuations.

Regulatory Overhaul on US Banking Sector Brings New Challenges

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheet data for US large banks shows another USD3bn decline in total loans</li>
<li>Large time deposits rose USD16bn in the week, YoY growth is accelerating, now 77.2% YoY</li>
<li>Risk aversion clearest with CRE loans, where growth is 0.41% YoY in most recent week</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheet data for US large banks shows another USD3bn decline in total loans
Large time deposits rose USD16bn in the week, YoY growth is accelerating, now 77.2% YoY
Risk aversion clearest with CRE loans, where growth is 0.41% YoY in most recent week


US Large Banks - Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve

<ul>
<li>Weekly data to 23 July in the US shows 30 year fixed mortgage rates hitting new highs at 7.23%</li>
<li>The past two weeks show mortgage rate increases accelerating, and up 45bps from 20 July data</li>
<li>Mortgage loan volume index is approaching 1990, weekly purchases index continues downward</li>
</ul>


Weekly data to 23 July in the US shows 30 year fixed mortgage rates hitting new highs at 7.23%
The past two weeks show mortgage rate increases accelerating, and up 45bps from 20 July data
Mortgage loan volume index is approaching 1990, weekly purchases index continues downward


US Banks - Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further

<ul>
<li>HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans</li>
<li>US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions</li>
<li>Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week </li>
</ul>


HFD for US small banks shows USD2.6bn new CRE loans in week vs USD3.4bn new total loans
US small banks have CRE loans at 2.9x capital vs 2.5x in recent periods and less provisions
Large term deposits are up from 8.5% to 14.2% of loans from trough to most recent week 


US Small Banks - New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

United States

KeyCorp is a financial services holding company.  The Company provides a wide range of retail and commercial banking, commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance and investment banking products and services to individual, corporate and institutional clients.

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Keycorp (KEY US)

US Big Banks - Wkly B/S 20 Sep, Slower Loans +1.5%, CRE -0.5%, Big Term-Deposits Up to 6.8% of Total

New balance sheet data US big banks: weaker loan growth, more negative for CRE, higher big term deposits. Loan loss reserves continue to rise fast....

Daniel Tabbush

Regulatory Overhaul on US Banking Sector Brings New Challenges

The US banking sector has encountered a multitude of challenges and transformations in recent months, triggered by the collapse of several...

Criat

US Large Banks - Weekly B/S Update: $3bn Less Loans, $16bn More Jumbo Deposits, CRE Loans Nearly -Ve

US large banks' new weekly balance sheet data shows USD3bn less loans, USD16bn more large time deposits, with CRE loan growth nearing negative...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Data: Mortgage Loan Rates A New High, Loan Volume Index Approaches 1990 Further

New weekly data for US mortgage loan applications and mortgage loan rates, suggest major deterioration in home lending for US banks during 3Q23....

Daniel Tabbush

US Small Banks - New HFD Shows 76% of New Loans Are CRE in Recent Week | CRE Loans at 2.9x Capital

New HFD shows new CRE loans at 76% of total new loans, for small US banks. Their CRE loans/capital is rising and LLR/CRE loans is low, falling. Off...

Daniel Tabbush

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