Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea Exchange is planning to change the criteria for rebalancing stocks in the KOSPI 200 index. </li>
<li>The purpose of this change is to prevent stocks that surge ahead of the actual KOSPI 200 inclusion but fall significantly after the inclusion announcement.</li>
<li>We think there is a 70-80%+ probability that POSCO DX and L&amp;F Co will be included in KOSPI 200 index in December 2023.</li>
</ul>


Korea Exchange is planning to change the criteria for rebalancing stocks in the KOSPI 200 index. 
The purpose of this change is to prevent stocks that surge ahead of the actual KOSPI 200 inclusion but fall significantly after the inclusion announcement.
We think there is a 70-80%+ probability that POSCO DX and L&amp;F Co will be included in KOSPI 200 index in December 2023.


KOSPI 200 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023 & Changes to the KOSPI 200 Rebalance Process

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 LargeCap to MidCap, 8 new additions to MidCap, 17 SmallCap to MidCap, 23 MidCap to SmallCap, 5 new additions to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the stocks migrating between other segments by a huge margin over the last few months.</li>
<li>Given the huge outperformance and looking at how the migrations have performed historically, we'd expect the stocks migrating to MidCap to underperform post implementation of the changes.</li>
</ul>


There are 8 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 7 LargeCap to MidCap, 8 new additions to MidCap, 17 SmallCap to MidCap, 23 MidCap to SmallCap, 5 new additions to SmallCap.
The migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the stocks migrating between other segments by a huge margin over the last few months.
Given the huge outperformance and looking at how the migrations have performed historically, we'd expect the stocks migrating to MidCap to underperform post implementation of the changes.


KOSPI Size Indices - Changes in September & Implications

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.</li>
<li>We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices started 1 June and will end 31 August. The changes will be implemented at the close 7 September.
We see 7 migrations from MidCap to LargeCap, 6 migrations from LargeCap to MidCap, 7 new adds to MidCap, and 17 migrations from SmallCap to MidCap.
Historically, stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed stocks that are migrating between other categories.


KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

<ul>
<li>The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.</li>
<li>Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI after market close on Friday.</li>
<li>There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> ETFs taking in the largest amounts.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices ends on Friday. There will be a lot of changes across the family.
Hang Seng Indices will announce the changes to the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI after market close on Friday.
There were HUGE inflows to onshore China focused ETFs during the week with CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index and SSE50 Index ETFs taking in the largest amounts.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: JPXNK400, Kenedix, Positioning - India, Japan, Korea

<ul>
<li>Ecopro BM (247540 KS) and Kum Yang (001570 KS)'s shares are down 2.5% and 4.5%, respectively today, driven by news of insiders at these companies selling their shares.</li>
<li>It is estimated that the total amount of Ecopro BM shares sold by insiders and related parties was about 20 billion won in July by more than 12 insiders/related parties.</li>
<li>We are increasingly concerned about insiders selling at Ecopro BM and Kum Yang. Coupled with lofty valuations, we think there is a higher probability of downside risk on these names. </li>
</ul>


Ecopro BM (247540 KS) and Kum Yang (001570 KS)'s shares are down 2.5% and 4.5%, respectively today, driven by news of insiders at these companies selling their shares.
It is estimated that the total amount of Ecopro BM shares sold by insiders and related parties was about 20 billion won in July by more than 12 insiders/related parties.
We are increasingly concerned about insiders selling at Ecopro BM and Kum Yang. Coupled with lofty valuations, we think there is a higher probability of downside risk on these names. 


Insiders Selling at Ecopro BM and Kum Yang

South Korea

Kum Yang Co., Ltd. specializes in manufacturing blowing agents to foam rubber products and polymers.  The Company also produces other basic fine chemicals, such as sulphur products.

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Kum Yang (001570 KS)

KOSPI 200 Rebalance Candidates in December 2023 & Changes to the KOSPI 200 Rebalance Process

We believe there is a 70-80%+ probability that POSCO DX and L&F Co will be included in KOSPI 200 index in December 2023.

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Indices - Changes in September & Implications

The changes to the KOSPI Size Indices were announced on Friday. Stocks migrating from SmallCap to MidCap have bigly outperformed and going by...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI Size Indices - Plenty of Migrations to Attract Active Flows

We currently forecast 53 migrations for the KOSPI Size Indices. There are stocks that are potential KOSPI200 adds in December and others that will...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: JPXNK400, Kenedix, Positioning - India, Japan, Korea

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Insiders Selling at Ecopro BM and Kum Yang

Ecopro BM (247540 KS) and Kum Yang (001570 KS)'s shares are down 2.5% and 4.5%, respectively today, driven by news of insiders at these companies...

Douglas Kim

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