IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Lianlian DigiTech / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a>, a digital payment services provider in China, has begun pre-marketing an HKEx IPO. It previously targeted a US$500 million raise.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lianlian-digitech-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108793" rel="noopener">LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lianlian-digitech-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:109009" rel="noopener">LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>The PHIP reinforces the bear case of operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, and a volatile FCF with a deteriorating balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH), a digital payment services provider in China, has begun pre-marketing an HKEx IPO. It previously targeted a US$500 million raise.
We previously discussed the IPO in LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case and LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case. 
The PHIP reinforces the bear case of operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, and a volatile FCF with a deteriorating balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a>, a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.  </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lianlian-digitech-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108793" rel="noopener">LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on margin pressure on the fastest-growing business, operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, FCF burn with a weak balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH), a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.  
In LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on margin pressure on the fastest-growing business, operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, FCF burn with a weak balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a>, a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>Lianlian ranked first among the independent digital payment solution providers in China in terms of TPV in 2022, with a market share of 9.1%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.   </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on rising market share, doubling of active customers, resilient core business growth and rapidly growing additional revenue streams.</li>
</ul>



Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH), a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   
Lianlian ranked first among the independent digital payment solution providers in China in terms of TPV in 2022, with a market share of 9.1%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.   
The key elements of the bull case rest on rising market share, doubling of active customers, resilient core business growth and rapidly growing additional revenue streams.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Hunan Zhongke Electric Co,Ltd. / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be 10 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-price-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">Chinext Price Index</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index. Implementation is at the close on 9 December.</li>
<li>One surprise is the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hunan-zhongke-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13009:1" rel="noopener">Hunan Zhongke Electric Co,Ltd. (300035 CH)</a> in both indices. Four stocks are adds to both indices while two stocks are deletes from both indices.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last 8 months but have given up some of the gains over the last month. There is a big sector skew.</li>
</ul>


There will be 10 changes for the Chinext Price Index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index. Implementation is at the close on 9 December.
One surprise is the inclusion of Hunan Zhongke Electric Co,Ltd. (300035 CH) in both indices. Four stocks are adds to both indices while two stocks are deletes from both indices.
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last 8 months but have given up some of the gains over the last month. There is a big sector skew.


ChiNext/​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: Materials & Industrials Take Spots from IT, Health Care

Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>At the end of the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-price-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX)</a> and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy +/-0.5 days of ADV for most inclusions and exclusions from the indices. The impact on the potential deletions is higher on average.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last six months, though there has been a sharp narrowing of the gap over the last few weeks.</li>
</ul>


At the end of the review period, we forecast 10 changes for the Chinext Price Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in December.
Passive trackers will need to buy +/-0.5 days of ADV for most inclusions and exclusions from the indices. The impact on the potential deletions is higher on average.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last six months, though there has been a sharp narrowing of the gap over the last few weeks.


ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Mean Reversion

China

Lakala Payment Co., Ltd. operates as a third party payment company. The Company offers kala mini household type swipe card reader, kala shield personal computer reader, and phone card reader. Lakala Payment provides services in China.

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Lakala Payment (300773 CH)

Lianlian DigiTech IPO: PHIP Updates

The PHIP reinforces the bear case of operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, and a volatile FCF with a deteriorating balance sheet.

Arun George

LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on margin pressure on the fastest-growing business, operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability,...

Arun George

LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on rising market share, doubling of active customers, resilient core business growth and rapidly growing...

Arun George

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: Materials & Industrials Take Spots from IT, Health Care

10 changes for Chinext and 5 for Chinext 50. Most changes were expected and there is a big sector skew. One surprise is the inclusion of Hunan...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Mean Reversion

We forecast 10 changes to the ChiNext & 5 changes to the ChiNext50 in Dec. There are a few overlapping stocks and the potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Lianlian DigiTech IPO: PHIP Updates

The PHIP reinforces the bear case of operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, and a volatile FCF with a deteriorating balance sheet.

Arun George

LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on margin pressure on the fastest-growing business, operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability,...

Arun George

LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on rising market share, doubling of active customers, resilient core business growth and rapidly growing...

Arun George

ChiNext/​ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: Materials & Industrials Take Spots from IT, Health Care

10 changes for Chinext and 5 for Chinext 50. Most changes were expected and there is a big sector skew. One surprise is the inclusion of Hunan...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Overlapping Stocks & Mean Reversion

We forecast 10 changes to the ChiNext & 5 changes to the ChiNext50 in Dec. There are a few overlapping stocks and the potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

ChiNext/ChiNext 50 Index Rebalance: Materials & Industrials Take Spots from IT, Health Care