Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Lancashire Holdings released its FY24 results on 6 March and declared another 25c/share special dividend on top of the 75c/share declared in November 2024. This brings combined special dividend declarations since FY23 to 200c/share, which equates to 36% of NAV per share at the start of FY23. Lancashire introduced a more liberal dividend policy in FY24, which resulted in a full ordinary dividend declared for FY24 of 22.5c/share compared with 15c/share for FY23 (combined dividend yield of 15.3%). Year-end NAV/share was 612c compared with 617c in FY23 and a return on equity (RoE) of 23.4% compared with 24.7% in FY23. A pull-back in the share price on the back of the results and FY25 RoE guidance in the mid-teens gives a price to NAV of 1.22x, well below the 1.3–1.6x range before interest rates increased in 2022.

Lancashire Holdings released its FY24 results on 6 March and declared another 25c/share special dividend on top of the 75c/share declared in November 2024. This brings combined special dividend declarations since FY23 to 200c/share, which equates to 36% of NAV per share at the start of FY23. Lancashire introduced a more liberal dividend policy in FY24, which resulted in a full ordinary dividend declared for FY24 of 22.5c/share compared with 15c/share for FY23 (combined dividend yield of 15.3%). Year-end NAV/share was 612c compared with 617c in FY23 and a return on equity (RoE) of 23.4% compared with 24.7% in FY23. A pull-back in the share price on the back of the results and FY25 RoE guidance in the mid-teens gives a price to NAV of 1.22x, well below the 1.3–1.6x range before interest rates increased in 2022.

Lancashire Holdings — Substantial shareholder distributions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments this week. However, trade tensions remain a concern for global markets despite optimism surrounding the Trump/Xi meeting at the G20 summit this week. Therefore, our outlook remains cautious and we expect consolidation to continue as global equities enjoy a bounce off of recent lows. Ultimately, we will need to see more definitive signs of bottoming throughout Europe, Asia, and the U.S. before getting positive on global equities.  We provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight attractive set ups in global transportation, communications, and financial sectors

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments this week. However, trade tensions remain a concern for global markets despite optimism surrounding the Trump/Xi meeting at the G20 summit this week. Therefore, our outlook remains cautious and we expect consolidation to continue as global equities enjoy a bounce off of recent lows. Ultimately, we will need to see more definitive signs of bottoming throughout Europe, Asia, and the U.S. before getting positive on global equities.  We provide a technical appraisal of major markets and highlight attractive set ups in global transportation, communications, and financial sectors

Global Equity Strategy: Bouncing off Lows, China Perking Up

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.  

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.

Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Cameron has to take the fall as he took a huge strategic risk for partisan reasons, misreading the mood. The question is: do you as a business owner hire and invest?Uncertainty is often lumped together as risk but there is a different: risk can be measured but uncertainty cannot. Daniel Ellsberg devised the famous experiment where there are 2 jars. The first jar, you are told, contains 50 red balls and 50 black balls. The 2nd jars contain 100 red and black balls but the number of each is…

Cameron has to take the fall as he took a huge strategic risk for partisan reasons, misreading the mood. The question is: do you as a business owner hire and invest?Uncertainty is often lumped together as risk but there is a different: risk can be measured but uncertainty cannot. Daniel Ellsberg devised the famous experiment where there are 2 jars. The first jar, you are told, contains 50 red balls and 50 black balls. The 2nd jars contain 100 red and black balls but the number of each is…

Markets from Here-Uncertainty Is NOT Risk

United Kingdom

Lancashire Holdings Ltd is a global provider of specialty insurance products. The Company is focused on short-tail, specialty property insurance, with underwriting operations in Bermuda and London.  Lancashire's business areas include aviation, energy, marine, and property.

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Lancashire Holdings (LRE LN)

Lancashire Holdings — Substantial shareholder distributions

Lancashire Holdings released its FY24 results on 6 March and declared another 25c/share special dividend on top of the 75c/share declared in...

Edison Investment Research

Global Equity Strategy: Bouncing off Lows, China Perking Up

Concerns over perceived U.S. central bank policy missteps have been somewhat alleviated following dovish takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s comments...

Vermilion Research

The UK Economy - After Brexit

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Macro Chart Focus: Brexit and the Yen

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF...

Naomi Fink

Markets from Here-Uncertainty Is NOT Risk

Cameron has to take the fall as he took a huge strategic risk for partisan reasons, misreading the mood. The question is: do you as a business...

Tan Chin-Hwee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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