Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan SPE set for a big pullback after a terrible ASML order outlook.</li>
<li>EUV related plays will be under pressure including Lasertec and Hoya.</li>
<li>Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, with rails in focus after Tokyo Metro IPO priced top of range.</li>
</ul>


Japan SPE set for a big pullback after a terrible ASML order outlook.
EUV related plays will be under pressure including Lasertec and Hoya.
Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, with rails in focus after Tokyo Metro IPO priced top of range.


Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook

<ul>
<li>Big gains for semi related after Micron's big beat, although the lions share of this may have priced in during Asian trading yesterday.</li>
<li>China related names in Japan look set to continue gains with HSI futures strong overnight and names like Estee Lauder +10% and L'Oreal +7% overnight.</li>
<li>Election day in Japan, with voting kicking off at JST, results, or at least a strong indication should be known before market close today.</li>
</ul>


Big gains for semi related after Micron's big beat, although the lions share of this may have priced in during Asian trading yesterday.
China related names in Japan look set to continue gains with HSI futures strong overnight and names like Estee Lauder +10% and L'Oreal +7% overnight.
Election day in Japan, with voting kicking off at JST, results, or at least a strong indication should be known before market close today.


Japan Morning Connection: China Related Names Set to Continue Gains

<ul>
<li>Positive sentiment from Intel's deal with AWS and extra Govt. backing may outweigh plans to delay its EU fab capex for JP SPE suppliers.</li>
<li>Concerns iPhone 16 Pro preorders are below expectations to weigh on JP component suppliers, but can this be much of a surprise?</li>
<li>The JP Govt. agreeing for 7&amp;I to be designated as a 'core' company is not a show-stopper and may compel Couche-Tard to up their game.</li>
</ul>


Positive sentiment from Intel's deal with AWS and extra Govt. backing may outweigh plans to delay its EU fab capex for JP SPE suppliers.
Concerns iPhone 16 Pro preorders are below expectations to weigh on JP component suppliers, but can this be much of a surprise?
The JP Govt. agreeing for 7&amp;I to be designated as a 'core' company is not a show-stopper and may compel Couche-Tard to up their game.


Japan Morning Connection: IPhone 16 Pro Orders Miss Expectations

<ul>
<li>Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.</li>
<li>Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.</li>
<li>Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.</li>
</ul>


Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.
Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.
Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.</li>
<li>Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.</li>
<li>Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.</li>
</ul>


Japan's markets have again failed to break to new highs creating a potential for a double-top pattern.
Trump's policies which target lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will put pressure on Japan's markets as can be seen from the high correlation between the JPY and TPX.
Sectors such as trading companies, autos and semiconductors could see the most pressure under a Trump presidency.


Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

Japan

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

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Lasertec Corp (6920 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook

SPE faces pullback after ASML's poor order outlook, impacting EUV-related plays including. Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, particularly...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: IPhone 16 Pro Orders Miss Expectations

Positive sentiment from Intel's deal with AWS and Govt. iPhone 16 Pro miss will weigh on JP component suppliers. JP Govt. designating 7&I as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

AI Tech rebound overnight. Oracle beats expectation setting positive tone for software. ARM and Softbank benefit with V9 chips in new iPhones.

Andrew Jackson

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

We pointed out that Japan's semi industry may be at risk as part of the "Trump Trade" sentiment. It turns out that Biden has already thrown...

David Mudd

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Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook

SPE faces pullback after ASML's poor order outlook, impacting EUV-related plays including. Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, particularly...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: China Related Names Set to Continue Gains

Big gains for semi-conductor related names after Micron's strong performance. China-related names set to continue gains. Election day results in...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: IPhone 16 Pro Orders Miss Expectations

​Positive sentiment from Intel's deal with AWS and Govt. iPhone 16 Pro miss will weigh on JP component suppliers. JP Govt. designating 7&I as...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

AI Tech rebound overnight. Oracle beats expectation setting positive tone for software. ARM and Softbank benefit with V9 chips in new iPhones.

Andrew Jackson

Trump Trades and the JAPAN Market Are Like Oil and Vinegar

We pointed out that Japan's semi industry may be at risk as part of the "Trump Trade" sentiment. It turns out that Biden has already thrown...

David Mudd

Positive sentiment from Intel's deal with AWS and Govt. iPhone 16 Pro miss will weigh on JP component suppliers. JP Govt. designating 7&I as...