Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> has confirmed it will list its upscale supermarket subsidiary, Seijo Ishii early next year.</li>
<li>Seijo leads in premium supermarket retailing and is growing as fast as the wealth market does, with plenty of room left to expand.</li>
<li>Seijo Ishii is now building its own production and import capabilities to increase originality and could begin to challenge even some of their larger rivals.</li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has confirmed it will list its upscale supermarket subsidiary, Seijo Ishii early next year.
Seijo leads in premium supermarket retailing and is growing as fast as the wealth market does, with plenty of room left to expand.
Seijo Ishii is now building its own production and import capabilities to increase originality and could begin to challenge even some of their larger rivals.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.</li>
<li>Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.</li>
<li>They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.</li>
</ul>


Major wholesalers in food, pharmaceuticals and books continue to prosper due to their role in both serving and protecting fragmented distribution channels.
Profits returned last year as clients picked themselves up after Covid, but as inflation sets in, these middlemen are being squeezed by both manufacturers and retailers and profits may slump.
They now need to offer an ever increasing array of value-added services to continue to grow and not all have the capability. More M&amp;A may be on the cards.


Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The battle for online food sales continues to heat up, with Rakuten and Amazon squaring up to challenge for supremacy. </li>
<li>Although Amazon has signed two of the largest names, Life and Valor, Rakuten is quickly catching up, last month adding Comodi-Iida to existing members, Seiyu, Beisia and Inageya.</li>
<li>Other supermarket chains are already preparing to sign-up with Rakuten. </li>
</ul>


The battle for online food sales continues to heat up, with Rakuten and Amazon squaring up to challenge for supremacy. 
Although Amazon has signed two of the largest names, Life and Valor, Rakuten is quickly catching up, last month adding Comodi-Iida to existing members, Seiyu, Beisia and Inageya.
Other supermarket chains are already preparing to sign-up with Rakuten. 


Rakuten’s Netsuper Expands with New Partners

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a>’s Q1 OP of ¥13.3bn (consensus: ¥10.6bn) seems to suggest that the company’s profitability is heading up following the upfront investments in store renovations.</li>
<li>After beating consensus OP by more than 25% in Q1, we think the company is being overly conservative by maintaining the OP guidance around ¥10.0bn below the pre-COVID level.</li>
<li>Based on the FY+1 OP to share price trend historically, our FY23 OP estimate of ¥63.0bn suggests that Lawson should trade at around ¥6,500 per-share, an upside of around 36%.  </li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP)’s Q1 OP of ¥13.3bn (consensus: ¥10.6bn) seems to suggest that the company’s profitability is heading up following the upfront investments in store renovations.
After beating consensus OP by more than 25% in Q1, we think the company is being overly conservative by maintaining the OP guidance around ¥10.0bn below the pre-COVID level.
Based on the FY+1 OP to share price trend historically, our FY23 OP estimate of ¥63.0bn suggests that Lawson should trade at around ¥6,500 per-share, an upside of around 36%.  


Lawson: Profitability to Expand with Slowing Growth Investments

Japan

LAWSON, INC. operates a chain of convenience stores in Japan. The Company sells a variety of products including fast food, beverages, snacks, magazines, newspapers, and sundry goods.

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Lawson Inc (2651 JP)

Lawson Confirms Seijo Ishii IPO

Lawson plans to list its upscale supermarket subsidiary Seijo Ishii. The latter is one of the best supermarket operators in the country and is...

Michael Causton

Major Japan Wholesalers up 2.8% in 2021, but Problems Looming

Wholesalers in Japan had a good year last year. The biggest firms like Medipal may prosper but there are challenges for the sector which could...

Michael Causton

Rakuten’s Netsuper Expands with New Partners

Rakuten continues to maintain leadership in Japanese e-commerce against rivals Amazon and Z Holdings and could emerge as the top player in the...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Lawson: Profitability to Expand with Slowing Growth Investments

As store renovations and MC Kitchen deployment slow, performance gains from growth investments have started to outweigh the immediate renovation...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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