Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US: In the 35th week of 2024, BYD’s EV delivery hits a new high, while Xpeng’s sales increase by 700 units(///////)</li>
<li>LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: Xiaomi SUV spy photos exposed, similar to Model Y, good news for Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng.(+/+/+)</li>
<li>XPEV US: XPEV MONA M03 pre-order exceeded only 30K in 48 hours.(/)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US: In the 35th week of 2024, BYD’s EV delivery hits a new high, while Xpeng’s sales increase by 700 units(///////)
LI US/NIO US/XPEV US: Xiaomi SUV spy photos exposed, similar to Model Y, good news for Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng.(+/+/+)
XPEV US: XPEV MONA M03 pre-order exceeded only 30K in 48 hours.(/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/LKNCY US

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Monthly deliveries recovered to the 2023 level in the three months - June, July, and August 2024.</li>
<li>Li Auto’s deliveries growth outperformed the China NEV market size in July.</li>
<li>We set the price target at US$26.90, which is 38% above the market price.</li>
</ul>


Monthly deliveries recovered to the 2023 level in the three months - June, July, and August 2024.
Li Auto’s deliveries growth outperformed the China NEV market size in July.
We set the price target at US$26.90, which is 38% above the market price.


Li Auto (LI US): 2Q24, Look at Monthly Deliveries, But Not Quarterly Revenue

<ul>
<li>The tension between the government and Alibaba was eased, as the authorities closed the rectification course on Alibaba.</li>
<li>Huawei’s total revenue increased by 34% YoY in 1H24, as the smartphone sales surged.</li>
<li>Kuaishou will provide a subsidy of US$56 million to e-commerce broadcasters.</li>
</ul>


The tension between the government and Alibaba was eased, as the authorities closed the rectification course on Alibaba.
Huawei’s total revenue increased by 34% YoY in 1H24, as the smartphone sales surged.
Kuaishou will provide a subsidy of US$56 million to e-commerce broadcasters.


China Consumption Weekly (2 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Huawei, Kuaishou, Li Auto, Haidilao

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

<ul>
<li>2Q-2024 results is within ours and consensus expectations. Competition is tough, but LiAuto managed to remain profitable   </li>
<li>Management is boosting R&amp;D expenditure and boost spending on  expanding number of charging stations, all for the benefit of its customers. </li>
<li>Our fair value of USD25 implies 16x FY25 PE - average for auto growth stock. A bargain with 3-year CAGR of 38%, net cash, and churns high free cash flow.</li>
</ul>


2Q-2024 results is within ours and consensus expectations. Competition is tough, but LiAuto managed to remain profitable   
Management is boosting R&amp;D expenditure and boost spending on  expanding number of charging stations, all for the benefit of its customers. 
Our fair value of USD25 implies 16x FY25 PE - average for auto growth stock. A bargain with 3-year CAGR of 38%, net cash, and churns high free cash flow.


LiAuto (LI US, BUY, TP:USD25.0): Good 2Q-2024 Results, on Track to Match Consensus

<ul>
<li>LI Auto (LI) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 5.0%, (5.2%) and (20%) vs. our estimates, and in-line, 53% and 6.8% vs. consensus.</li>
<li>We believe the market has oversold the company.But in our view,the key question is LI’s next product entry under the backdrop of Xiaomi consolidating its position in the EV sector. </li>
<li>We believe LI should continue to explore its “family car” brand niche in entering the sedan market. If so, volume and margin can co-exist.</li>
</ul>


LI Auto (LI) reported C2Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 5.0%, (5.2%) and (20%) vs. our estimates, and in-line, 53% and 6.8% vs. consensus.
We believe the market has oversold the company.But in our view,the key question is LI’s next product entry under the backdrop of Xiaomi consolidating its position in the EV sector. 
We believe LI should continue to explore its “family car” brand niche in entering the sedan market. If so, volume and margin can co-exist.


[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: Expanding Outside of SUV Is Still the US$mn Question

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/LKNCY US

BYD and Xpeng see strong EV sales growth in 35th week of 2024, while Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng benefit from Xiaomi SUV spy photos resembling Model...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): 2Q24, Look at Monthly Deliveries, But Not Quarterly Revenue

Monthly deliveries recovered to the 2023 level in the three months - June, July, and August 2024. Li Auto’s deliveries growth outperformed the...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (2 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Huawei, Kuaishou, Li Auto, Haidilao

The tension between the government and Alibaba was eased. Huawei’s total revenue increased by 34% YoY in 1H24. Kuaishou will provide a subsidy to...

Ming Lu

LiAuto (LI US, BUY, TP:USD25.0): Good 2Q-2024 Results, on Track to Match Consensus

LiAuto's 2Q-2024 results meet expectations. Management is focused on customer experience and on technology, and this will ensure it survives and...

Mohshin Aziz

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: Expanding Outside of SUV Is Still the US$mn Question

LI Auto reported mixed financial results, but market oversold. Key question is next product entry amidst Xiaomi's EV dominance. LI should focus on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/LKNCY US

​BYD and Xpeng see strong EV sales growth in 35th week of 2024, while Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng benefit from Xiaomi SUV spy photos resembling Model...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): 2Q24, Look at Monthly Deliveries, But Not Quarterly Revenue

Monthly deliveries recovered to the 2023 level in the three months - June, July, and August 2024. Li Auto’s deliveries growth outperformed the...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (2 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Huawei, Kuaishou, Li Auto, Haidilao

The tension between the government and Alibaba was eased. Huawei’s total revenue increased by 34% YoY in 1H24. Kuaishou will provide a subsidy to...

Ming Lu

LiAuto (LI US, BUY, TP:USD25.0): Good 2Q-2024 Results, on Track to Match Consensus

​LiAuto's 2Q-2024 results meet expectations. Management is focused on customer experience and on technology, and this will ensure it survives and...

Mohshin Aziz

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: Expanding Outside of SUV Is Still the US$mn Question

​LI Auto reported mixed financial results, but market oversold. Key question is next product entry amidst Xiaomi's EV dominance. LI should focus on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

BYD and Xpeng see strong EV sales growth in 35th week of 2024, while Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng benefit from Xiaomi SUV spy photos resembling Model...

LiAuto's 2Q-2024 results meet expectations. Management is focused on customer experience and on technology, and this will ensure it survives and...

LI Auto reported mixed financial results, but market oversold. Key question is next product entry amidst Xiaomi's EV dominance. LI should focus on...