Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LI Auto reported C4Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (6.2%), 13% and 81% vs. our estimates and 4.9%, 52% and 102% vs. consensus.</li>
<li>We believe LI can beat our delivery estimate on exports, but can also miss the consensus on gross margins if its 2024 volume target is met by sedans;</li>
<li>We raise our TP by US$5 to US$52 and reiterate BUY.</li>
</ul>


LI Auto reported C4Q23 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income (6.2%), 13% and 81% vs. our estimates and 4.9%, 52% and 102% vs. consensus.
We believe LI can beat our delivery estimate on exports, but can also miss the consensus on gross margins if its 2024 volume target is met by sedans;
We raise our TP by US$5 to US$52 and reiterate BUY.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: What Can Go Wrong & Go Right in LI Becoming BYD #2

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In 4Q23, revenue grew by 136% and operating profit was significantly higher than the market consensus.</li>
<li>Li Auto grew the most rapidly among the top-ten Chinese NEV sellers.</li>
<li>We believe Li Auto will be one of the winners after the market gets more concentrated. Upgrade to Hold.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q23, revenue grew by 136% and operating profit was significantly higher than the market consensus.
Li Auto grew the most rapidly among the top-ten Chinese NEV sellers.
We believe Li Auto will be one of the winners after the market gets more concentrated. Upgrade to Hold.


Li Auto (LI US): 4Q23, High Growth and Profit, A Winner of Market Concentration, Upgraded to Hold

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH: Xiaomi to start double-shift production of the SU7 in June （+/-/-/-/-）</li>
<li>1810 HK/1211 HK/ LI US/ NIO US/ XPEV US: The data shows that only 2% of FSD12 users are converted to paying users, which is good for China's automatic driving(//////////)</li>
<li>LI US / NIO US/1810 HK :Li Auto takes the lead in sales in the 18th week of 2024, while Xiaomi continues to lag behind（/////）</li>
</ul>


1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH: Xiaomi to start double-shift production of the SU7 in June （+/-/-/-/-）
1810 HK/1211 HK/ LI US/ NIO US/ XPEV US: The data shows that only 2% of FSD12 users are converted to paying users, which is good for China's automatic driving(//////////)
LI US / NIO US/1810 HK :Li Auto takes the lead in sales in the 18th week of 2024, while Xiaomi continues to lag behind（/////）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

<ul>
<li>Li Auto’s deliveries and revenues surged by three digits since 3Q23.</li>
<li>The company is building new factories in Changzhou and Beijing. </li>
<li>However, we believe the stock is overvalued apart from comparing with Tesla.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto’s deliveries and revenues surged by three digits since 3Q23.
The company is building new factories in Changzhou and Beijing. 
However, we believe the stock is overvalued apart from comparing with Tesla.


Li Auto (LI US, 2015 HK): Deliveries Surged, But Overvalued Apart from Comparing with Tesla

<ul>
<li>Huawei’s decision to accept investments to its Intelligent Automotive Solution (HI) has no impact on its Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA). It might actually strengthen it, in our view;</li>
<li>We also believe it concludes Huawei’s internal battle of visions.</li>
<li>The newly integrated business has short term impacts on Li, Nio and XPeng and long-term impact on Baidu and Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


Huawei’s decision to accept investments to its Intelligent Automotive Solution (HI) has no impact on its Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA). It might actually strengthen it, in our view;
We also believe it concludes Huawei’s internal battle of visions.
The newly integrated business has short term impacts on Li, Nio and XPeng and long-term impact on Baidu and Xiaomi.


[Blue Lotus Transportation Sector Update]: Huawei’s R&D & Marketing Alignment Makes It Stronger

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: What Can Go Wrong & Go Right in LI Becoming BYD #2

LI Auto exceeded expectations in top line, operating profit, and net income, with potential for increased exports but possible gross margin...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): 4Q23, High Growth and Profit, A Winner of Market Concentration, Upgraded to Hold

In 4Q23, revenue grew by 136% and operating profit was significantly higher than the market consensus. Li Auto grew the most rapidly among the top...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

Xiaomi to start double-shift production of SU7, FSD12 users conversion rate low, Li Auto leads in sales in 18th week of 2024.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US, 2015 HK): Deliveries Surged, But Overvalued Apart from Comparing with Tesla

Li Auto’s deliveries surged significantly since March 2023. Total revenue grew by 220% YoY in 2Q23 and 270% YoY in 3Q23. But we believe the stock...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Transportation Sector Update]: Huawei’s R&D & Marketing Alignment Makes It Stronger

Huawei's acceptance of investments for its Intelligent Automotive Solution (HI) does not affect its Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA),...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$52) TP Change]: What Can Go Wrong & Go Right in LI Becoming BYD #2

​LI Auto exceeded expectations in top line, operating profit, and net income, with potential for increased exports but possible gross margin...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): 4Q23, High Growth and Profit, A Winner of Market Concentration, Upgraded to Hold

In 4Q23, revenue grew by 136% and operating profit was significantly higher than the market consensus. Li Auto grew the most rapidly among the top...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ZK US/NIO US/TSLA US/XPEV US/600104 SH/1211 HK/ LI US/LKNCY US

​Xiaomi to start double-shift production of SU7, FSD12 users conversion rate low, Li Auto leads in sales in 18th week of 2024.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US, 2015 HK): Deliveries Surged, But Overvalued Apart from Comparing with Tesla

Li Auto’s deliveries surged significantly since March 2023. Total revenue grew by 220% YoY in 2Q23 and 270% YoY in 3Q23. But we believe the stock...

Ming Lu

[Blue Lotus Transportation Sector Update]: Huawei’s R&D & Marketing Alignment Makes It Stronger

​Huawei's acceptance of investments for its Intelligent Automotive Solution (HI) does not affect its Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA),...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

LI Auto exceeded expectations in top line, operating profit, and net income, with potential for increased exports but possible gross margin...

Xiaomi to start double-shift production of SU7, FSD12 users conversion rate low, Li Auto leads in sales in 18th week of 2024.

Huawei's acceptance of investments for its Intelligent Automotive Solution (HI) does not affect its Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA),...