Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable</li>
<li>We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition</li>
<li>We cut LI's TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable
We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition
We cut LI's TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

<ul>
<li>Li Auto's (LI) share surged 13% on photos released on its official Weibo of a BEV SUV slated for release in April, two months ahead of our expectation. </li>
<li>Based on information released, we dialed up LI's BEV forecast from 73K to 106K for 2025, contributing 20% of revenue instead of 15%. </li>
<li>We raise LI's TP from US$22 to US$25 but keep at SELL.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto's (LI) share surged 13% on photos released on its official Weibo of a BEV SUV slated for release in April, two months ahead of our expectation. 
Based on information released, we dialed up LI's BEV forecast from 73K to 106K for 2025, contributing 20% of revenue instead of 15%. 
We raise LI's TP from US$22 to US$25 but keep at SELL.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> is looking to raise around US$450m via a primary placement in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The shares haven’t done much this year or ever since they were listed.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



NIO (9866 HK) is looking to raise around US$450m via a primary placement in Hong Kong.
The shares haven’t done much this year or ever since they were listed.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


NIO HK Placement - Lots of Reasons to Avoid and Only One to Invest

<ul>
<li>LI Auto (LI) reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 2.0%, 68% and in line vs. our estimates. </li>
<li>We expect LI’s share price to be range bound until its BEV SUV to debut in C2Q25. Facing a crowded market</li>
<li>We raise TP from US$22 to 25 but keep rating at SELL.</li>
</ul>


LI Auto (LI) reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 2.0%, 68% and in line vs. our estimates. 
We expect LI’s share price to be range bound until its BEV SUV to debut in C2Q25. Facing a crowded market
We raise TP from US$22 to 25 but keep rating at SELL.


[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough.</li>
<li>LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.</li>
<li>We believe the plunge after the result release just provides an upside of for the stock.</li>
</ul>


LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough.
LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.
We believe the plunge after the result release just provides an upside of for the stock.


Li Auto (LI US): Record Sales Volume in Sep and Record Operating Profit in 3Q24

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

Li Auto's revenue and net income fall short of estimates, leading to reduced forecasts and a lowered price target of US$20 with a SELL rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

Li Auto's share surged 13% on photos of upcoming BEV SUV, leading to increased revenue forecast but maintaining sell rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NIO HK Placement - Lots of Reasons to Avoid and Only One to Invest

NIO (9866 HK) is looking to raise around US$450m via a primary placement in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): Record Sales Volume in Sep and Record Operating Profit in 3Q24

LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough. LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

​Li Auto's revenue and net income fall short of estimates, leading to reduced forecasts and a lowered price target of US$20 with a SELL rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

​Li Auto's share surged 13% on photos of upcoming BEV SUV, leading to increased revenue forecast but maintaining sell rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

NIO HK Placement - Lots of Reasons to Avoid and Only One to Invest

NIO (9866 HK) is looking to raise around US$450m via a primary placement in Hong Kong. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

​LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto (LI US): Record Sales Volume in Sep and Record Operating Profit in 3Q24

LI’s revenue increased by 24% YoY in 3Q24, as deliveries climbed out of the trough. LI achieved record operating profit and a record margin in 3Q24.

Ming Lu

Li Auto's revenue and net income fall short of estimates, leading to reduced forecasts and a lowered price target of US$20 with a SELL rating.

Li Auto's share surged 13% on photos of upcoming BEV SUV, leading to increased revenue forecast but maintaining sell rating.

LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...